The Buffalo Bills are set to host the Baltimore Ravens this weekend in a tough matchup that could have playoff implications. Buffalo is vying for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and they currently sit two games up in the loss column on the New England Patriots in the AFC East. Baltimore, on the other hand, is currently in fourth place in the AFC North, but at 4-3, they are firmly involved in the AFC playoff picture.
While the Bills and the Ravens may not be divisional foes, they very well could find themselves
fighting for seeding once January hits. A head-to-head victory not only helps Buffalo maintain their divisional lead, but it could also make a big difference in their playoff path.
Baltimore isn’t a typical last-place team; they are far too talented to be taken lightly, and the Bills know they have a fight on their hands this week. If they want to earn a win this Sunday, they’ll need to account for these five avens to watch.
_____________________________________________________________________________
QB Lamar Jackson
After missing the last three games with an ankle injury, Jackson is poised to return, and just in time for the Ravens. Baltimore is always dangerous, but with Jackson back, an already dangerous offense becomes a big challenge for a struggling Buffalo defense.
The Bills have traditionally hemmed Jackson in fairly well, but with a new coordinator and a new scheme on the defensive side, there’s no way to know if that success will translate this year. So far, Buffalo’s defense has had next to no success, as they sit 30th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed this season. If Jackson’s mobility is limited, it could limit his effectiveness, as he consistently makes huge plays with his legs. While Jackson is perfectly capable of beating teams from the pocket, Buffalo has to force him to stay there and make him do it for four quarters.
WR Zay Flowers
After signing a big extension this offseason, Baltimore’s top receiver has justified that deal with a huge start to the season. Flowers has 40 catches for 608 yards and three touchdowns on 53 targets. He can operate from the outside and from the slot. He has tremendous speed, he runs great routes, and he can attack the defense at every level. In short, he’s a nightmare for a struggling pass defense like Buffalo’s.
Hell, he’s a tough cover for anyone. After watching Christian Benford travel with Brock Bowers last week, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him draw the same assignment for Flowers. Benford can use his size and length—he’s 6’1” with 31” or 32” long arms, depending on the source—to jam the 5’9” Flowers at the line. Physicality is going to be the name of the game this week, as giving Flowers a free release is a recipe for disaster. Limiting him and making Jackson look elsewhere will be a key part of the game plan on Sunday.
LB Roquan Smith
The veteran is still one of the best in the game, and this seaosn, he’s performed better in coverage than he has at any point in his career. So far, he’s allowing just 53.8% of passes thrown his way to be completed; opposing quarterbacks have a rating of just 56.3 when targeting Smith in the passing game. Those numbers are both career bests for the 29-year old five-time All-Pro. Normally, I’d say he’s someone to target in the passing game, as he allows better than a 70% completion rate against for his career.
And, while I think that the Raven will use Kyle Hamilton to guard Buffalo’s tight ends over the middle, they could very well use Smith to do that if he’s matched up agaisnt someone like Dawson Knox or Jackson Hawes. Smith is also big enough and physical enough to act as a spy on quarterback Josh Allen, and while he has dealt with a knee injury, he seems ready to return to a full-time role this weekend. Keeping track of No. 0 has to be a big part of Sunday’s plan on offense.
S Kyle Hamilton
The versatile defensive back is always worth watching, as he has the toughness to erase tight ends and the quickness to deal with most wide receivers over the middle. Hamilton is a long, sturdy defender who can neutralize even high-end talents; however, he’s been limited a bit of late thanks to a lingering knee issue. He sat out of Wednesday’s practice before logging a limited session Thursday and a full session on Friday. He enters the game without an injury designation, but he hasn’t quite been as dominant in the early going of this season as he has been in years past.
He’s allowing 67.9% of passes to be completed when he’s the closest man in coverage, and he’s allowing a career-high 8.9 yards per completion. He’s also missed five tackles so far this season, and his missed tackle percentage so far is a career-high 9.1%. Sure, opposing quarterbacks have just an 80.8 quarterback rating when targeting him, but for a three-time All-Pro, it’s a small step in the wrong direction. I assume that Hamilton’s main mark will be Dalton Kincaid this week, who is questionable to play thanks to a chest injury. If Buffalo has Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and DJ Moore, then Hamilton can’t erase all of them. Whichever player he’s on should be targeted with caution, but there will be opportunities for Buffalo over the middle.
CB Nate Wiggins
With all due respect to veteran Marlon Humphrey, it’s Wiggins who is their top corner, in my eyes. Wiggins has allowed just 55.6% of passes thrown his way to be completed; he has four pass breakups on the season to give him 31 in 39 career games. Despite how talented Wiggins is, he was repeatedly abused by Josh Allen and the Bills during last season’s wild 41-40 comeback victory.
Allen targeted Wiggins’ man seven times, completing six of those passes for 78 yards. Allen was outstanding that night, throwing for 394 yards and two touchdowns while completing 33-of-46 passes. Wiggins is too good to take lightly, however, and he’ll likely be matched up against either Keon Coleman or DJ Moore. Buffalo can’t ignore those guys, so they’ll need to win their reps against Wiggins in order to give the Bills a chance at victory.
