For a brief three days between Thursday and Sunday, the New England Patriots stood atop the AFC as the conference’s top seed; the first team to nine wins, they put pressure on their opposition — namely the Denver Broncos as well as an Indianapolis Colts team on its bye — to match them.
Denver did just that, beating the Kansas City Chiefs on a last-second field goal to equal the Patriots’ 9-2 record. Their better conference performance so far, however, lifts the Broncos atop New England with the NFL’s
11th weekend in the books.
That being said, the Patriots are still seen as the favorite to end up as the No. 1 seed and owner of the first-round playoff bye. According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the team of head coach Mike Vrabel has a 46% chance to earn the top spot in the conference, compared to 23% for the Broncos and 20% for the Colts.
Obviously, football is not played on spreadsheets and the old “any given Sunday” saying still rings true, but this shows that a) the Patriots are in a very competitive position in the AFC, and b) will face a favorable schedule down the stretch.
AFC playoff picture after Week 11
- Denver Broncos (9-2)
- New England Patriots (9-2)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
- Buffalo Bills (7-3)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
On the bubble: 9. Houston Texans (5-5), 8. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5), 10. Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 11. Miami Dolphins (4-7), 12. Cincinnati Bengals (3-7), 13. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8), 14. New York Jets (2-8), 15. Cleveland Browns (2-8), 16. Tennessee Titans (1-9)
Besides the Colts slipping from No. 1 to No. 3 because of their bye, the top of the AFC saw only one significant change: the Bills overtaking the Chargers thanks to a win over Tampa plus an L.A. loss to the Jaguars. This, plus the Chiefs getting beaten by the Broncos, also means that the three-time reigning AFC champions are now even further away from the playoff picture.
Don’t get your hopes up about the current eighth seed missing out, though: they still are given a 57% chance of ultimately qualifying for the postseason. The ice is getting thinner, though.
The NFC playoff picture, meanwhile, looks as follows:
NFC playoff picture after Week 11
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
- Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
- Chicago Bears (7-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
- Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
- Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
- San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
On the bubble: 8. Detroit Lions (6-4), 9. Carolina Panthers (6-5), 10. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1), 11. Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 12. Arizona Cardinals (3-7), 13. Atlanta Falcons (3-7), 14. Washington Commanders (3-8), 15. New Orleans Saints (2-8), 16. New York Giants (2-9)
The NFC standings saw considerable change over the course of Week 11. The biggest among them is the Lions dropping from the third seed out of the playoff picture altogether. Additionally, the Rams overtook the Seahawks as the second seed, the Bears jumped to the top of the NFC North, and the 49ers stepped back into the frame as the No. 7 seed.
The bottom of the conference, meanwhile, is also starting to take shape. The Cardinals and Falcons are both headed in the wrong direction and now find themselves with playoff odds of below 1%.
