It really should be called the final third of the season now, shouldn’t it?
The Sixers just need to put the finishing touches on the final 28 games of the regular season to complete a bounce back from their disastrous 24-win campaign a season ago. With just a game in the loss column currently keeping them out of the play-in tournament in the East, it’ll take a strong finish to secure a top-six playoff spot.
Here are the pressing questions that will define whether they’re able to do so or not.
Is the All-Star break enough to recharge VJ-Maxx?
This has
come up quite a bit, because it’s no secret just how much of a workload these two have taken on — Maxey in particular with his 30% usage rate. Not only has the topic of fatigue and tiredness come up quite a bit in Maxey’s recent postgame press conferences, but it seems to be catching up with him as well.
Through the end of December, Maxey was averaging 30.8 points per game on the season shooting 39.6% from three-point range. In January and February he’s dipped down to 26.5 points a night shooting 35.6% from deep. If there’s a silver lining it’s that his minutes per game have gone down from 39 to 37 in that time, though he still leads the league in minutes by far.
Edgecombe is only averaging a measly 35 minutes a night, but he still has a comfortable lead on most minutes played this year by a rookie. Not only has his production gone through dips, but his shot selection seems to indicate a rookie wall as well.
Again, through December, Edgecombe was taking 35% of his shots at the rim and 18% from the short midrange. In the roughly month and a half since, he’s only taken 29% of his shots at the rim and his short midrange attempts have dropped to 14%, according to Cleaning the Glass.
With the top-heavy roster the Sixers have, a week off may be the only relief coming when it comes to these two. Neither of them even had a full week technically, with Maxey being both an All-Star and three-point contest participant, and Edgecombe competing in the Rising Stars game.
We’ll see soon enough whether four days off is enough to recharge either of their batteries because there’s likely to be plenty of 40-minute nights in their near futures.
How much will this shaken up bench be able to produce?
Relatedly, a big reason why so much responsibility is placed on Maxey and Edgecombe’s shoulders is due to the lack of bench production as of late. The Sixers are currently the 28th-ranked team in the league in bench points, averaging 30.4 a night. Jared McCain struggling to crack the rotation while he was still here put the role of bench shooting entirely onto Quentin Grimes.
However tall of an ask that is, he’s struggled to do so after a pretty solid start. Through November he was averaging 17 points a night shooting just a tick below 37% from three. No one’s come down to earth harder though, as he’s averaging 9.9 points a game shooting 42% from the field and 31% from three in the 29 games since then.
Through most of that time, the Sixers had been getting solid bench production from whichever of Kelly Oubre Jr. or Dominick Barlow came off the bench. With Paul George suspended though, both of those guys have become required starters.poiu9o0p[=p-]\
The dumping of McCain as well as Eric Gordon only intensified the need for Grimes to get right. Through the buyout market the Sixers may have found an additional scoring burst in Cam Payne. It’s a long shot, with Payne having spent the first half of this season playing in Europe, but at least the Sixers have seen him impact a playoff game before. As a bottom three bench team in the league, the Sixers will take any help they can get.
How will the front court behind Joel Embiid hold up?
So obviously this stems from the most burning, everlasting question surrounding the Sixers: how healthy will Joel Embiid be?
After enjoying over a month long stretch of healthy basketball, only missing planned nights that were back-to-backs, Embiid missed the last two games before the All-Star break due to another bout of knee swelling. The positive spin there is that this was his right knee, not the left that he’s injured so frequently. Nick Nurse didn’t seem super concerned by this either, saying the soreness had progressed somewhat and that the All-Star break should help that as well.
No one here has to be reminded of the history, though. After starting the season playing well without Embiid, the Sixers once again look like a team dependent on him, losing six of their last seven with him out of the lineup. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Sixers are a -1.4 with Adem Bona on the court and -4.3 in lineups with Andre Drummond.
Bona continues to show flashes as a shot blocker, but has yet to really develop his rebounding skills and has been abysmal as a lob catcher this year. After a resurgent start to the year, Drummond has started to look older each passing game. While they both turned their two-way deals into standard contracts, neither Barlow nor Jabari Walker has seen enough substantial time playing center to know if they are legitimate backup five options.
With the trade deadline come and gone and the buyout market looking just as bare in the front court, the only solution to this problem is probably Embiid staying as healthy as possible. Even if he’s able to, the Sixers still have six more back-to-backs to get through this regular season as they gear up for a busy March.
They won’t be easy hurdles with all the solutions needing to be internal, but how the Sixers deal with these issues will define their second half of the season.
