Game location: Arizona Stadium/Tucson, AZ
Game time/channel: Saturday, October 11, 5:00pm PT/8:00pm ET (ESPN2)
Spread: -1.5 (BYU)
Matchup History: 13-12-1 (BYU)
Arizona has a shot to even up the all-time series
this weekend. The Cougars and Wildcats have played 26 times due to being in the same conference between 1962 and 1977 and now again in the Big 12. Not only does BYU own a slight edge in the overall series, but they also have won four straight. That began in head coach Kalani Sitake’s first game as BYU’s head coach in 2016 in Glendale. BYU then won in Tucson to open the 2018 season. BYU won the neutral site game in Las Vegas to open the 2021 season. Then, the Cougars blasted Arizona last year in Provo 41-19. Arizona’s last win against BYU came in the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl.
Head Coach: Brent Brennan (2nd season)
2025 Season Thus Far
After a bitterly disappointing 2024 season that saw them go 4-8, Arizona looks more like their team that went 10-3 and spent most of the 2023 season inside the top 15. They won all three of their non-conference games by a combined score of 111-26. Iowa State dished the Wildcats their only loss to date, when they traveled to Ames. The Cyclones ran all over Arizona for five rushing touchdowns and forced two turnovers.
Quarterback Noah Fifita looks much more like his old self after a puzzling 2024 campaign. He is fourth in the Big 12 in passing touchdowns this season. Their defense is also much improved. That has set the tone for a solid 4-1 start with them probably getting Top 25 votes or even ranked if they beat BYU.
When Arizona Has the Ball
The Wildcats were a disaster last year, even with veteran standout QB Noah Fifita with now first round NFL talent Tetairoa McMillan at receiver. Even with the departure of McMillan, Arizona looks much more well-rounded on offense in 2025. Fifita is back to the level of play that earned him Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2023. Fifita loves pushing the ball down the field, so long as his offensive line can protect for that long. He ranks ninth in all of the Power 4 in average depth of target, meaning he loves throwing it downfield. He is 13th among Power 4 quarterbacks in overall Pro Football Focus grade.
It’s not just the Fifita show. Arizona replaced McMillan on the aggregate, with four different receivers logging at least 150 receiving yards so far. Javin Whatley leads the pack with 22 catches for 316 yards. Tre Spivey emerged as a YAC-demon against Oklahoma State, meaning, he creates yards after the catch.
The Cougars will likely be without star linebacker Jack Kelly. That is a brutal loss against this talented offense. Isaiah Glasker and Ace Kaufusi will need to be on their A-game between crossing routes and containing Fifita when he runs. While the Wildcats prefer passing the ball, they can run when they want to. Ismail Mahdi ranks fourth in the Big 12 in rushing yards. He is tied with LJ Martin for third in the conference in 10-plus yard runs.
BYU needs to be smart and effective when rushing the passer. Keanu Tanuvasa, Hunter Clegg, and Logan Lutui and company need to get home to Fifita, but also don’t leave gaps open for him to run around and improvise. Discipline is key.
When BYU Has the Ball
Arizona has not allowed a single passing touchdown so far this season. They are the only FBS team that can say that. This will be far and away the toughest test for Bear Bachmeier to date. If there is a pass-catching corps in the Big 12 that could give Arizona’s solid secondary a stiff test, it’s BYU’s combination of Chase Roberts, Parker Kingston, and tight end Carsen Ryan. Against FBS opponents, Arizona ranks third in the country in passer rating allowed.
If BYU is going to find success on offense, it begins and ends with the run game. The Wildcats are fairly stout against the run as well, ranking 18th in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, BYU ranks 35th in the country in rushing yards per game. This will be strength versus strength. If Arizona starts stuffing the run and forcing true freshman Bear Bachmeier to carry the entire load, this might end poorly for BYU.
Arizona’s two safeties Dalton Johnson and Genesis Smith put a sealed lid on top of that defense that is hard to take off. Cornerback Ayden Garnes has three pass breakups and fellow CB Jay’Vion Cole has two interceptions.
The game will be won or lost on how BYU’s offense fares against one of the best defenses in the country.
How BYU Can Win
As silly as it sounds, BYU needs to score enough points. This has the makings of a defensive slugfest, even if BYU is without Jack Kelly. Aaron Roderick and the Cougar offense need to find success on the ground with LJ Martin. Bachmeier has shown effectiveness in the run game in key spots as well. He will need to convert a big 3rd down or two with his legs in this game. The gameplan BYU had last season against Fifita and Arizona may not work as well this time, given it’s on the road against a totally different scheme in Tucson. Fifita is still a very gifted quarterback. BYU likely needs to be at least plus-one in the turnover margin to win.
In games such as these, it’s usually not a bad bet to go with the more veteran quarterback at home.
Prediction: Arizona 24, BYU 20
