It’s been yet another impressive week for the NFC North as they continue to prove that they are the best division in football. For the first time in NFL history, there’s a 6-3 team in last place heading into Week 10. If the season ended today, all four teams in the division would be in the playoffs, but with a Vikings loss on Monday Night Football, the Bears will be in sole possession of first place heading into their Week 10 bye.
Sunday night’s game was quite the rollercoaster that featured a dominant
start, followed by three quarters of flirting with disaster. Despite blowing a 14-point lead, the Bears’ offense was able to march down the field in the final three minutes of the game to set up Cairo Santos’ game-winning field goal to give Chicago a 27-24 victory. More importantly, despite five turnovers, the Bears moved to 7-2 and put themselves in a great position over the final eight games of the season once they return from the bye week. We’ll cover that, some trade deadline thoughts, and much more in a loaded Week 9 installment of 10 Bears Takes.
1. After an unbelievably impressive first quarter, quarterback Caleb Williams set a career-high for interceptions in an NFL game with three in the second quarter alone.
The first two-and-a-half drives started like a dream for head coach Ben Johnson and the Bears offense. They marched down the field on back-to-back drives with impressive passing touchdowns from Williams. On the third drive, Williams once again made unbelievable throws, and the NFL world was in awe. Then came a 15-yard personal foul on Zavion Thomas that set the offense back to the 21 on a second-and-goal. On the next play, Williams fired one into double coverage for his second interception of the year. It was clear he was feeling himself, but he got caught trying to do too much, forcing a ball into the end zone for Rome Odunze. A few plays earlier, he hit Odunze in the chest for what should have been an easy walk-in touchdown. In a few plays, what should have been a 21-3 lead remained 14-3.
Following a failed fourth-down attempt from Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, Chicago had the ball back at the 35-yard line with a chance to build an 18-point lead. Instead, Williams threw off his back foot, couldn’t get the ball out of bounds, and threw back-to-back interceptions on consecutive passes. A few drives later, following a big Cam Lewis interception, Williams threw his third interception of the night off his back foot, once again.
Simply put, Sunday night’s second-quarter performance was as uncharacteristic as we’ve seen from Williams throughout his two and a half years in the league. Every quarterback in the league has bad games, but the way it happened felt unbelievable.
A few observations:
- On his second interception, he had D’Andre Swift wide open in the flat as a checkdown option, which would have resulted in a first down, if not more.
- Despite the interceptions, Johnson did not shy away from calling a pass-heavy attack in the first half.
- Two of Williams’ three interceptions came off back-foot throws.
With the bye week ahead, fans can rest assured knowing that Williams will obsess over his disastrous second-quarter decision-making. As we’ve learned with this offense, things only become a concern when they repeat themselves. Considering his history, this feels like a one-off that we might not see again for multiple seasons. Regardless, those mistakes let the Buccaneers stay in the game going into the half, which I’m sure will be a big talking point as they start prepping for New Orleans after the bye week.
2. In many ways, Sunday night’s game was a complete disaster. Not very often do teams win games when they turn the ball over five times and lose the turnover margin by three. Yet, they found a way to do it when everything was failing them.
Following the first quarter, it felt like everything was going wrong for the Bears. Williams threw three interceptions in the second quarter, the Buccaneers scored right before the half, and the offense went completely silent for most of the second half. Most teams would have completely fallen apart, and to a certain extent, the Bears did. This was a very uncharacteristic game for this team under Ben Johnson, and there’s just no real other way to put it.
The offense failed to score 30-plus for the first time since Williams’ return, and for the first time in the same time frame, they relinquished a lead. The good news is they still haven’t trailed in those four games, but that was a game where most of this team is probably going to want to flush it and move on.
Sometimes these games just happen, and even when everything was going wrong, somehow, some way, the Bears held onto the lead for all but about three minutes. A big reason why the game stayed so close was their five turnovers, but while they lost the turnover margin by three, they allowed just 10 points off those five turnovers, which is pretty remarkable.
Ultimately, Chicago is a well-coached team, and the Buccaneers, despite a slow start, were on a bit of a roll and had a chance to take over first place in the NFC South. This was a motivated team with plenty to play for, and even if they don’t have that one game-breaker at receiver, there’s still plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. In fact, heading into Sunday night, Tampa Bay’s defense was leading Seattle’s in many statistical categories. While you never want to see an offense go completely dark and turn it over that many times, when it counted most, Williams found 38 yards to get them into field goal range and eventually win the game.
There will be plenty to take away and clean up from this game, but the bye week is coming at the right time. More importantly, their 7-2 start could be good enough to get them into first place by the end of Monday night. For now, we’ll turn our attention to the trade deadline on Tuesday, but as long as this one bad game stays just one bad game, the Bears are right on schedule as Super Bowl contenders.
3. Even with the late touchdown they gave up, the defense played a helluva game and was the reason they found a way to get to 7-2.
The impact that Jeffery Simmons has had on this defense cannot be overstated. Despite a sackless first half, they came away with four in the second half, plus a pick-six from the much-maligned Jaylon Johnson. For the most part, they did a good job of bottling up the league’s most dangerous rushing attack. Before Tampa Bay’s final drive of the night, when they scored the game-tying touchdown, Irving had 80 yards and averaged 4.44 yards per carry. While that’s not great for the defense, it was much more manageable than most defenses have been against him this season.
In the passing game, they had just one big coverage bust: Kyler Gordon was burned down the field by Tez Johnson for 58 yards. Outside of that, quarterback Baker Mayfield was uncomfortable in the pocket and didn’t consistently hit receivers past 10 yards. On the night, Mayfield finished with 243 passing yards, but had no touchdowns and two interceptions. The defense also defended five passes, despite being on the field for almost six more minutes than the offense.
Simply put, without the defensive effort they received, the Bears don’t win on Sunday night. The box score might show 24 points and 352 yards, but they allowed just 10 points off those five turnovers and had four sacks and an additional tackle for loss on the night. This group will be a work in progress until they can get healthier. Honestly, they probably need at least another addition on that side of the ball, but all things considered, they are playing at a much higher level than anyone had expected coming into the season.
With any luck, they’ll get Malik Muhammad and Dayo Odeyingbo back healthy for Week 11. You could also throw both Kyler Gordon (who left and returned to Sunday’s game) and Tyrique Stevenson into that mix too. The defensive line depth is considerably better with the addition of Simmons, and will get even better with Odeyingbo and a potential addition before the trade deadline. Assuming the offense doesn’t have another disastrous night as they did against the Buccaneers, this group should be more than good enough to give them a chance to beat anyone, in any setting. That’s a lot more than anyone could have expected back in September when they gave up 30-plus points in Week 1 to the Carolina Panthers.
4. The Buccaneers’ defense will be the best unit the Bears will see until at least Week 13 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That’s not really a conversation or a thought that anyone has had for most of this season, but it’s a great reminder that the road should get easier for this offense moving forward. So far this season, the Bears have faced three of the league’s Top 5 defenses in Minnesota, Seattle, and now Tampa Bay. Yet, they are still averaging 26.8 points per game and rank third in the league in total yards. Considering they’ve had games where they’ve scored three and seven points, that shows how effective the offense has been more often than not.
It’s important to remember that no team in the league has been the model of consistency throughout the year so far. Even the best teams have struggled periodically. For example, Joe Burrow threw three interceptions against the lowly Tennessee Titans and needed overtime to beat them in Week 8. The 49ers, for as good as they’ve been, had a stretch of two games where they barely beat the Washington Commanders, and then lost to the Atlanta Falcons the following week.
Teams across the league are struggling for a game or two, even if their records suggest a bigger picture of elite teams. For the Bears, their struggles against the Buccaneers after the first quarter will be exactly that until they prove it’s a bigger issue. The week before, they hung 34 on in Seattle on a defense everyone believed was still elite. Even the best offenses in the league have performances like that. The good news for the Bears is that outside of the Jaguars, the only other Top 5 defense they are currently slated to face is the Vikings in Week 18. We’ll see how important a game that is when we arrive in early January.
5. Following Sunday night’s game, the Bears will get their much-needed mid-November bye week. Getting healthy will be key, especially for players like Kyle Monangai and Malik Muhammad, who missed Sunday.
Outside of Sunday night, the Bears’ offense has been more than productive enough to continue to win games, even against the best defenses in the league. That said, it’s clear their offense has been missing a key piece: Kyle Monangai. Since his absence, the rushing attack has dropped off a cliff. Part of that can be attributed to Swift being banged up and less effective, but Monangai is clearly a key piece of this rushing attack and the reason it’s been struggling. In the team’s five games without Monangai, the team has averaged 98.6 yards per game on the ground. In the four games that he’s been on the field, that number was considerably higher at 196.3 yards per game.
In addition to getting Monangai back, Muhammad and Odeyingbo are set to return in the second half for the team’s defense. Muhammad has been the defense’s best cover cornerback, despite being a fourth-round rookie. Assuming his toe is good to go for Week 11, that should alleviate some of the pressure of Tyrique Stevenson’s injury issues so far this year. Muhammad’s 80.8 passer rating against that isn’t elite by any measure, but compared to Jaylon Johnson (110.8) and Tyrique Stevenson (136.8), it’s night and day. Odeyingbo had finally hit his stride in this defense, and when he was placed on Injured Reserve with a quad injury, he was leading the team in sacks with three. His versatility to play both inside and out was a big value for this group, which should only grow now that Simmons is in the fold on the interior.
We’ll see what happens over the next 24 hours (or so) regarding the trade deadline, but getting back those three players as early as the Saints game will be a big boost for both sides of the ball. Getting healthy for a tough stretch through the rest of the season will be key to keeping pace in the division and chasing down the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
6. With the trade deadline on Tuesday afternoon, the Bears won’t be pressed into making a move, but if there are affordable options at cornerback or defensive end, it might make sense to continue to add to this defense.
The team’s remaining needs seem clear heading into Tuesday, but their ability to make a move will be completely dependent on price. Following the trade for Simmons, the Bears lack their first-round pick for the next two drafts, along with their fourth-round pick for 2027. I could end up being wrong, but my initial guess is that general manager Ryan Poles won’t have any interest in dealing any Day 2 picks for the upcoming draft. Those two picks will be their best shots at adding impact players, and considering he’s made it clear that they want to primarily build through the draft, trading either one of those picks would go against everything he has said up to this point.
That said, there should still be some role players you can get with mid-to-late Day 3 picks who could help this team in the here and now. Cornerback and edge rusher stand out as the team’s biggest needs. However, I would say that cornerback is a bigger need with Odeyingbo set to return in the coming weeks. Additional edge depth is always a need for every team in the league, but barring a change of heart for the Chargers regarding Khalil Mack, finding enough of an impact edge rusher might be a challenge.
The cornerback market is always a bit overpriced, but given how bad their current group is (even once Muhammad returns), adding the right scheme fit may matter more than name value. A reunion with Nahshon Wright might not break the internet, but he would be a quality depth add with plenty of boom-or-bust potential. Riq Woolen stands out as the best overall (value) addition, and it was reported last week that the Bears and Lions are battling it out for the veteran cornerback. Although he has struggled with the Eagles, almost everyone on that roster has, no matter what side of the ball they play. Other names could become available, but adding speed and man-coverage ability should be at the top of the priority list.
Overall, I’d put the chances of the Bears making another move before tomorrow’s deadline below 50%, but deals can come together fast. If the price is right, I feel comfortable in assuming that Poles will be ready to make a move. That said, the Simmons addition will be bigger than any move they can make over the next 24 hours, and fans should rest easy knowing that this defense (as currently constructed) is Super Bowl-ready.
7. Sunday’s early window featured a lot of ugly games; looking forward through November and December, that feels like the new normal with so many standalone games.
Over the last few weeks, you might have noticed a downtick in viable games worth watching on Sunday in the early window. A big reason is that, with all the additional standalone games (overseas, Thursday Night Football, etc.), Sunday’s least desirable window lacks quality.
Soon, the overseas games will end, and holiday and Saturday games will start filling the schedule. Coupled with teams separating themselves (both good and bad), those intriguing matchups in the early window will be harder and harder to find. For example, the Bears are currently slated to play three more early-window games (vs. the Saints, vs. the Jaguars, and at the Dolphins), but if I had to guess, the game against the Jaguars will get flexed. Whether that is into the late-afternoon slot or Sunday Night Football, the chances of that game staying in its current slot are slim.
The battle for networks to keep or earn games is always worth following over the second half of the season. While some of the Sunday and Monday night games aren’t attractive for viewers on the surface, the media market in which those teams play will have a role. More importantly, each network has the right to “block” NBC & ESPN from flexing a certain number of games each week, so if the slate of games is bad in the earlier windows, you can almost bet that those won’t make it to Sunday or Monday night. My initial guess is that Fox flexes the Week 13 Jaguars game to the late-afternoon slot, especially with Pittsburgh having the Sunday night game against a Texans team playing much better lately.
8. The NFC is shaping up to be a nine-team race, with the NFC North trending toward sending all four teams to the playoffs in January– a deeper look into the NFC’s playoff picture and how deep the Bears’ division is.
It’s “If the season ended today” season, and we are here for it. So, let’s play out the string.
If the season ended today, all four NFC North teams would be in the playoffs (regardless of what happens in the Minnesota game on Monday Night Football), leaving the defending Super Bowl Champion Seahawks and the overwhelming Super Bowl favorite Rams out. What makes this a little frustrating is that the NFC South-leading Carolina Panthers sit at 3-5, with the Saints also at 3-5 and the other two teams at 3-6. Unfortunately, like last year, one team must win the division.
Regardless of their final record, they’ll be guaranteed a playoff spot and a home game in the Wild Card round. This also means, similar to last year, that at least one team above .500 will be left out of the playoffs.
Right now, the NFC’s playoff picture seems pretty clear when looking at the teams that should be in it come December. There’s always a chance that the Dallas Cowboys make a run and enter the race, but at 4-5, they might have a better chance of winning the NFC East if the Giants stumble down the stretch. Assuming Dallas can’t get back in the fray of the Wild Card, you’ll have the division winners and then three teams from the NFC North and two teams from the NFC West competing for three Wild Card spots. This means that two of those teams will be left out in the cold, while a team from the NFC South gets into the playoffs with a worse record.
The NFC North is a gauntlet, and we’ll cover that in a few, but looking at the NFC West, the slow starts for both Seattle and Los Angeles could ultimately keep them out of the playoffs. Although I’m not one to believe the AFC is as bad as some might want you to believe, there’s a stark difference (right now) in competition for the final few playoff spots.
Not that it will happen, but it’s still mathematically possible for all four teams in the NFC North to finish at 13-4, which is crazy to think about, but considering their 20-3 outside of the division, it’s not impossible. No matter how it pans out, there’s going to be at least one, if not two, very good teams left out of the NFC playoff picture, and that’s in part due to the inclusion of the NFC South winner. For what it’s worth, ESPN’s FPI metric has the Bears’ current playoff chances sitting at 90% heading into Monday Night Football.
9. NFC North Lookaround: With Detroit and Green Bay taking care of business on Sunday afternoon, the pressure is on Minnesota to pull off an upset on Monday Night Football.
It wasn’t pretty for the Lions in the early window, but they finally took control of the game against the one-win Dolphins midway through the third quarter. It’s clear that the absence of team captain Jack Campbell was weighing on the team this week, and why wouldn’t it? It was a scary injury, and although Campbell put out an update himself, it’s fair to wonder if his NFL career is over. Detroit’s high-scoring offense was uncharacteristically sloppy in the first half. Although they pulled away over the final 20 minutes of the game, it was far from a stellar performance against one of the worst teams in the league. Miami provided a break from consecutive divisional games, but they’ll be facing a New England Patriots team that will be looking to rebound after being thoroughly embarrassed at home.
Speaking of the Patriots, the Packers went into Foxborough and beat the hell out of New England. Before the Patriots knew it, they were down 17-0. Quarterback Drake Maye was awful on Sunday, and Green Bay’s defense took advantage. Despite a 10-point lead at the half, the Packers pulled away in the second half, and both teams’ second teams were in for the majority of the fourth quarter. All in all, the Packers looked like the much better team, and quarterback Jordan Love was impressive throwing deep. It’s clear that every team within the division is very good, so it’ll be interesting to see how they separate themselves in the coming weeks. The Packers will host the Vikings next week in the early-afternoon window. The winner will stand alone in the division.
The Vikings have yet to play, but go into Monday night’s home game as three-point underdogs. This will be a big prove-it game for the offense, which will start Carson Wentz at quarterback after Kyler Murray suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain. With a win, the Vikings will remain in first place; with a loss, they’ll drop to second place. It’s a big mid-season game, and one in which Minnesota must prove that they have enough offensive firepower to hang with the top teams in the league. Buckle in, NFC North fans; the final eight weeks of the season are going to be a rollercoaster.
Here are the standings coming out of Week 9:
(6-1) Minnesota Vikings
(7-2) Chicago Bears
(6-2) Detroit Lions
(6-3) Green Bay Packers
10. Week 11 Look Ahead: (Following their bye week), the Bears will be back at home to host an upstart New Orleans Saints team that is looking to get back in the NFC South race.
Surprise, surprise. The NFC South is yet again a complete disaster. Heading into Week 10, they are the only division in football that doesn’t have a team at .500 or better. Despite the Saints’ extremely slow start, they’re just a half-game back heading into next weekend, when they will face the Carolina Panthers for first place.
I haven’t watched much of the Saints this year, but each time I have, I come away thinking they should be much better than they play, especially considering the talent on both sides of the ball. In some ways, they are still in the midst of a retool, but ultimately, they have more than enough talent to be hovering above .500, especially in their division. Quarterback Tyler Shough is a fun watch with plenty of arm talent. When he’s on, he’s hard to stop. Getting back Jordan Tyson should be big for the offense, especially with Chris Olave playing at a high level.
Defensively, they have done a nice job of limiting damage for the most part, even if they don’t have a star player on that side of the ball. Edge rusher Chase Young has been impressive the last two seasons, and he’s someone that the Bears’ offense will need to scheme for. Overall, the Saints are playing much better football than they were earlier in the year, but they are still very beatable, even if four of their five losses have come at home.
Overall, this is a good stylistic matchup for the Bears, but the Saints should be motivated and could be in first place if they beat Carolina next weekend.
