All season, players and coaches point to March as the time when the games truly count. A quick glance at a calendar shows that the time is now. The NCAA Tournament brings March Madness to Columbus on Saturday, to start the final stretch of games in the 2025-26 Ohio State women’s basketball season. How it will end is up to the players, but here are the reasons why the Buckeyes can make an NCAA Tournament run, and then the reasons why they cannot.
The Why
Ohio State has not made the Final Four in 33 years.
The last time that happened, now-assistant coach Katie Smith was a nationally recognized and applauded freshman. Now, in the 21st century, it is a nationally recognized and applauded sophomore who has the ability to lead the Buckeyes back to the college basketball promised land.
Point guard Jaloni Cambridge made a huge leap from season one to season two, and the guard was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year last campaign. Cambridge led the Big Ten with 26.4 points per conference game, her 4.9 assists were seventh, and the 5-foot-7 point guard landed in the top 25 rebounders with 5.6. When looking for a complete player, it is Cambridge.
Whether it is scoring 41 points in a crucial midseason matchup against the Illinois Fighting Illini, with WNBA star A’Ja Wilson sitting court side specifically to watch Cambridge, or a near triple-double in the next game against the Maryland Terrapins, Cambridge finds the basket and her teammates with regularity.
Opposing teams struggle to stop her, and it is not only a one-player show in Columbus. Older sister and Ohio State guard Kennedy Cambridge led the Big Ten with 128 steals, a record that already broke the 115-steal program single-season record and continues to grow. Senior guard Chance Gray’s 17 points per game in the 2026 calendar year is the best stretch of play in her four-year career. Then there is 6-foot-6 sophomore center Elsa Lemmilä, who, despite losing to the UCLA Bruins in the Big Ten Tournament, played some of the best defense against Big Ten Player of the Year Lauren Betts that a big has played this season.
After early-season hiccups, which are normal for a young team, the Buckeyes showed that they are never really out of a game. Ohio State had one truly rough Big Ten game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but the Scarlet and Gray made up for it soon afterwards in the Big Ten Tournament. The other late-season losses were by a single possession at the end of games against the Michigan Wolverines and Maryland Terrapins.
Overall, with a little bit of luck and a bounce or two can get to an Elite Eight run.
The Why Not
The biggest why not is the No. 1 overall seeded UConn Huskies. Ohio State earned a No. 3 seed after playing through the learning curve that comes with a young team that has only three upperclassmen on a roster of 11 athletes, but the Buckeyes’ reward was the same region as the only undefeated team in Division I basketball. Earlier in the season, Ohio State traveled to Connecticut in the third game of the season only to return to Columbus with its worst loss of the season in a 100-68 rout.
Now, Ohio State is a different team than it was in early November. A lot changed in the four months that followed, but what did not change much is that the Buckeyes are still a young team. With that comes young team mistakes.
Head coach Kevin McGuff’s side’s fatal flaw is consistency. Take the Buckeyes’ last game as an example. UCLA won by 10 points, which, when compared to the totality of the Bruins’ season, is a standout performance. However, seven points of that deficit came in the second quarter alone. Ohio State won the second half by a point, but those final 20 minutes showed that at their best, the Buckeyes can compete with the top teams in the country.
However, it also showed that the Big Ten side is not at the point where it can play at its highest level for a full 40 minutes.
Then there is the need for a third scorer. Jaloni Cambridge and Chance Gray are the offensive keys for the Buckeyes, but after that, the picture gets cloudy. Kennedy Cambridge is capable of a big scoring game, but when that happens is not predictable or something to plan around. Elsa Lemmilä has improved vastly as she got healthier this year after two offseason surgeries, but early misses can throw the Finnish center out of her offensive rhythm, although that has improved at the end of the season.
After this season, Ohio State will lose at least Gray due to expired eligibility. If the rest of the young roster stays intact, and the transfer portal does not take away any pieces, youth will no longer be a problem. The Buckeyes have potentially two more seasons with their core of Jaloni Cambridge, Elsa Lemmilä, guard Ava Watson, and forward Kylee Kitts, which may keep opposing coaches up at night through the 2027-28 season.
