The Detroit Lions look to start 2-0 in the NFC North as the undefeated Minnesota Vikings travel to Ford Field. Are you expecting a breakdown of Brian Flores’ top ranked defense against the newly recognized MVP candidate Jared Goff? Sorry.
Sure, this matchup boasts the Vikings’ league best defense against the Lions potent offense. But that isn’t where this game will be won or lost, in my opinion. No, the key matchups lie in the other two phases of the game to give either team the edge.
For this week’s
key matchups, I’ve drawn inspiration from defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, who said the defense hit on each of his keys to victory the past two weeks.
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen back-to-back games where we went out, we do these keys to victory and they’ve gone out back-to-back games and I mean hit every single one of them”
Against the Packers, those three keys to victory were: 1) Don’t let wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden get behind them, 2) dominate in the run game and make them one dimensional, and 3) force takeaways.
Here are our keys to victory against the Vikings:
Kyler Murray vs. the front seven
When asked about the Vikings’ offense, Sheppard listed off the top offensive skill players as being threats they have to account for, but singled out quarterback in particular.
“And then probably the most dangerous of them all is my guy back there, number one in Kyler Murray. If you let him out of that pocket, he can hurt you.“
Per SumerSports, Murray is fourth in the NFL with a scramble rate of 9.9% for quarterbacks with at least 10 dropbacks. While creating pressure is important, more important this week for the Lions’ front seven on defense is to contain and keep Murray in the pocket. On the year, Murray ranks 27th overall in EPA/play at -0.09 amongst quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. However, while outside of the pocket, Murray has an EPA/play of -0.04, which ranks eighth best.
After watching the Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts game from Week 7, the biggest takeaway I had of the Minnesota offense was that Murray struggled to sit in the pocket, read the defense, and deliver an accurate ball. Most of the offensive success was predicated on designer plays or off-script improvisation. Defending this is a complete unit assignment. If one player is unsound in their rush integrity, Murray can find a seam and create problems.
Key to victory: the front seven must maintain discipline to force Kyler to play a style of game he is least comfortable in.
Justin Jefferson vs. the secondary
The Lions cannot let Jefferson beat them, and I don’t expect Sheppard to call on one guy to make that happen. While cornerback D.J. Reed has played better recently, I expect the focus on Jefferson to be a collective effort. Whether it’s unique double teams and bracket coverages, or a deep shell safety making sure 18 doesn’t get over top. This is a complete-unit matchup.
Looking into Jefferson’s usage tendencies, he’s lining up in a wide alignment at the highest rate of his career at 84.7%. Further, Jefferson is being put in presnap motion at the lowest rate in his career at 8.4% overall and just 2.2% at the snap. This helps the Lions defense to more predictably run help coverage toward Jefferson without complication.
The Vikings are tied with the Chicago Bears as the only teams in the NFL to have not been the beneficiary of a defensive pass interference this season. Discipline on critical downs is important to not give this Vikings offense any help in changing this.
Key to victory: do not give up explosives to Jefferson by leaving him one-on-one on critical down-and-distances.
DeAndre Carter vs. touchback field position
Lastly, the special teams phase of the game is the hidden key to victory against the Vikings. With how stout the Minnesota defense has been, one critical way to overcome the challenge is to win the field position battle.
Following a season-ending injury to typical return specialist Tom Kennedy, the Lions signed wide receiver DeAndre Carter to be the team’s new top returner. The veteran showed burst and looked close to breaking off some big returns in his first action as a Lion against the Packers in Week 7.
Against the Vikings, yards will be at a premium and every bit of positive field position takes pressure off of Goff and the rest of the offense to sustain a long drive to get into at least field goal range to net points. While the Vikings rank No. 1 in special teams DVOA per FTN Fantasy, they rank 29th in net punt yards per attempt at 39.26 and 14th in average kickoff return yards allowed of 25.23, per SumerSports.
Key to victory: create short fields through special teams to limit the impact of the Vikings’ defense.
Three key matchups. Three keys to victory and one game closer to reclaiming the top spot in the NFC North.
