Did Buster Posey’s gamble in trading Gold Glove catcher Patrick Bailey over three months ago pay off? Since very little about this team makes sense (and even less of it has been successful), skepticism ought to be warranted; but, that hasn’t been the case. I think it was perhaps foolish to trade him, but the absolute certainty with which the other thought in the matter (“they were right to trade him”) operates causes me to consider just how wrong I am and how right Buster Posey was. The trade isn’t
what this series is about, exactly, but it’s the most interesting storyline. But let’s let the numbers explain.
Bailey hit .145/.213/183 (15 wrC+, +4.6 Defensive Runs Above Average, -0.1 fWAR) in 89 plate appearances (30 games) with a 7.9 BB% and 24.7 K% before the trade. In the prior three seasons, it was .230/.287/.340 (76 wRC+, +97.5 Def Above Avg, +10.3 fWAR) in 1,253 PA. Since joining the Guardians, he’s hit .208/.260/.357 (71 wRC+, +5.5 Def Above Avg, +0.3 FWAR) in 54 games (171 PA) — basically, his 3-year average.
The Giants have used Daniel Susac (83 wRC+, +9.2 Def), Drew Cavanaugh (87 wRC+, +0.6 Def), Andrew Knizner (6 wRC+, -0.1 Def), Eric Haase (65 wRC+, -0.7 Def), and Jesus Rodriguez to catch this season and since the trade, the group is hitting .198/.281/.315 for a 69 wRC+ (25th) and about a +7 Defensive Runs Above Average. It’s, effectively, a wash when it otherwise wouldn’t be if Susac could stay healthy (he’s likely to miss the remainder of this season due to a fractured patella).
Meanwhile, the Guardians have a 91 wRC+ from the catcher position (15th in MLB) on a line of .236/.304/.373 thanks not only to Bailey hitting to his career average but also to Austin Hedges having the best offensive line of his career (.264/.337/.380). Now, he’s caught all or part of just 61 of the Guards’ 125 games played. Bailey has caught all or part of 54 games. Bo Naylor caught all or part of 28 games.
For a couple of months after the trade, a conspicuous number of people would pop up in mentions insistent that the trade was great and, specifically, that Bailey was merely a backup in Cleveland, that’s how far his stock had fallen. But that never sat quite right with me. It felt like bots programmed by the Giants to swarm any dissent against Buster Posey. Bailey has appeared as catcher in 54 of the 84 games he’s been a Guardian. That’s 64.3%. He’s started 45 of those 54 appearances or 45 of the 84 games he’s been a Guardian. That’s still 53.6%, which, to me signals that he has been Cleveland’s primary catcher since the trade.
There’s perhaps a bunch more to talk about with this trade, but rather than go deep, I’ll just list them.
- The Giants probably got rid of him in part because he was the previous front office’s darling. The hitting woes made it easier to continue purging players like that and they almost certainly felt like the peak of his tradeability was about to pass.
- Major League Baseball sent a memo to teams instructing them to cease using AI in-game and it’s entirely possible that the Giants had been asking ChatGPT or Grok for instructions during game situations and even pitch calling, as that’s one of the few things that Tony Vitello was already comfortable with in making the jump to the big leagues. What does that have to do with Bailey? Well, there was a lot of wishy-washiness after the double header loss in Philadelphia, especially around the Ryan Walker sinker-sinker-sinker-sinker-ad-infinitum sequence. Was Grok just spitting out “sinker” and Bailey became a convenient scapegoat?
- Bailey doesn’t seem to remind Buster Posey of himself very much. They went after Susac in the Rule 5 draft and that’s likely because catcher evaluation is something the Giants’ President of Baseball Operations is great with.
The Giants got the soft-tossing lefty Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson in return and he will be making his major league debut at some point in this series. The Giants have a TBD for the second game, and it’s plausible that he’ll get the start or multiple innings. Yesterday, Brady speculated that Logan Webb would have to hit the IL to open up a rotation spot for Wilkinson and, indeed, that might be the case, given the TBD being sandwiched between Carson Whisenhunt and Landen Roupp. On the other hand, maybe they’ll use Wilkinson to start on Wednesday and simply push Webb’s start to Friday? If they have any shot of not being completely humiliated in Boston, then Logan Webb should probably appear in that series.
Anyway, both teams feel like they made a good trade. The Guardians have benefitted the most from it at this juncture. I’m wary of saying that the Giants got addition from subtraction, but they and the bots seem to think so! After all, the Giants were 15-24 before the trade. They’re 36-49 since…
About the series itself: The Guards will throw two lefty starters at the Giants, one of whom (Foster Griffin) they acquired from the Nationals at the trade deadline. He has a 6.00 ERA in his two starts for them so far. The Giants are 28th against left handed pitching with an 86 wRC+. Rafael Devers has a career 1.044 OPS against the Guardians in 42 games. He’s homered 9 times in Progressive Field, too (.350/.432/.680 — 24 games).
The Giants are not quite on pace to match their 100-loss season of 1985, but they’re perilously close. Right now, they’re tacking to the 98-loss 2017 team. The Guardians, meanwhile, have the embarrassment of riches that is the American League and the AL Wild Card. At 60-65, they’re just one game out of the 3rd Wild Card.
Series Overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (51-73) at Cleveland Guardians (60-65)
Where: Progressive Field | Cleveland, Ohio
When: Tuesday & Wednesday at 3:40pm PT, Thursday at 10:10am PT
National broadcasts: None
Projected starters
Tuesday: Carson Whisenhunt (LHP 3-3, 6.11 ERA) vs. Foster Griffin (LHP 13-4, 3.25 ERA)
Wednesday: TBD vs. Parker Messick (LHP 9-7, 2.59 ERA)
Thursday: Landen Roupp (RHP 7-12, 4.31 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (RHP 11-7, 3.74 ERA)
Prediction time
The Guards will sweep.
