Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano are actually going to fight. On Netflix. In the year 2026.
OK.
Most Valuable Promotions is promsing a spectacle and while there’s no questioning the star power of Saturday’s card, the time has come to break down how the fights will actually play out. How will Rousey and Carano look after absurdly long layoffs from competition? Do Nate Diaz and Mike Perry still know how to mix the martial arts? Is Francis Ngannou still the best heavyweight on the planet?
Yes, at times it
has felt like Rousey, Carano, and MVP have been selling an amicable business transaction more than an epic fight night, but once that cage door closes, it’s going to get real real fast. So let’s proceed with the predictions for a matchup that nobody saw coming.
What: MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano
Where: Intuit Dome in Los Angeles
When: Saturday, May 16. The six-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET with a live stream available on MMA Fighting. The five-fight main card begins at 9 p.m. ET and streams exclusively on Netflix.
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
Question: What is the record of fighters who are coming back from almost 17 years of being out of competition?
Let me save you the time. Zero and zero, because what Gina Carano is attempting to do here has never been done before in MMA.*
*(If there’s some obscure fighter who successfully came back from a hiatus like this that I’m not aware of, well… keep it to yourself. Don’t ruin my fun.)
In their primes, Ronda Rousey would have made short work of Carano. Now, with Carano having recently turned 44, it’s nearly impossible to imagine a path to victory for the fighter-turned actress-now fighter again. Yes, Rousey is older as well. No, Rousey, by her own admission, probably shouldn’t be taking any punches or kicks to the head anymore. Yes, Carano looks to be in fantastic shape for this fight.
That’s all well and good, but Rousey is still a better athlete, still capable of judo throwing anyone on their head, and let’s not discount the fact that after her UFC career ended, she dedicated herself to pro wrestling, the most powerful martial art of all. She stopped fighting because there were better, less concussive opportunities for her in the entertainment world and because she couldn’t beat Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm. Carano is not Nunes nor Holm.
Rousey and Carano have presented this as more of an exhibition than any sort of grudge match, so there’s a chance that they playfully spar for a couple of rounds before Rousey takes control and ends it. If Rousey is taking this fight even halfway serious though, she runs through Carano in seconds and caps off her illustrious career with another signature submission.
Pick: Rousey
Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
My gut is telling me not to doubt Nate Diaz in this one.
Look, no one is arguing that Mike Perry isn’t the king of these bare-knuckle streets, and you bet I’d be siding with “Platinum” all the way if this were happening in a BKFC ring. But it’s not. I know it’s been a while for Nate Diaz, too, but he’s beaten much better names under MMA rules than Perry, who is comparatively one-dimensional. Even if you think this stays primarily on the feet, Diaz’s aggressive boxing has always given his opponents headaches.
On the other hand, Perry hits damn hard, and unlike Diaz, he’s kept himself sharp with meaningful BKFC fights. Diaz might frustrate him with sheer volume, but all it takes is one or two good haymakers from Perry to turn the fight around and have the judges thinking twice about their scorecards. If there’s any sort of gentlemen’s agreement between Diaz and Perry to stand and bang, this should be a bloody good time.
I won’t rule out Diaz taking this to the ground, where he has a considerable advantage, but he doesn’t need his jiu-jitsu to outlast Perry. Keep in mind, this is a five-rounder, and if there’s one thing the Diaz Bros love it’s beating people up in a marathon, not a sprint.
Pick: Diaz
Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
Ngannou by knockout.
Oh, we need to dig in a little more? Fine.
As far as B-sides go, Philipe Lins is respectable. He won a PFL tournament as a heavyweight in 2018 (how many PFL tournament wins you got, Francis?!?) and later made a logical move back down to light heavyweight where he found renewed success. Lins was actually 4-0 competing at 205 pounds in the UFC before parting ways with the promotion in 2024. He’s not bad.
But he’s not really a heavyweight and he doesn’t have nearly enough power to deal with Ngannou. Lins can grapple, but Ngannou shored up his wrestling defense after the first Stipe Miocic fight and he hasn’t looked back. It’s only a matter of time before Ngannou locks in and knocks Lins into another dimension.
Tanner Boser needed less than three minutes to knock Lins out. What do you think Ngannou is going to do to him?
Pick: Ngannou
Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross
Salahdine Parnasse is on a red hot finishing streak right now and that should be extended when he meets Kenneth Cross. A former two-division KSW champion, Parnasse would already be contending in the UFC’s loaded lightweight division were the promotion a little more loose with its purse strings, but their loss is MVP’s gain as the Frenchman gets to strut his stuff live on Netflix now.
We always talk about how speed kills and that’s going to be the story in this matchup, with the athletic Parnasse being one step ahead of Cross. Don’t expect much in the way of volume from Parnasse, at least until he smells blood, at which point he starts firing on all pistons. Parnasse is constantly moving, bobbing and weaving, searching for openings to throw finishing shots.
Cross is a good offensive fighter, but he’s highly susceptible to counters and that’s a recipe for disaster against Parnasse. Once Parnasse registers Cross’ lack of head movement, he’ll only need a few well-placed strikes to put Cross down. Should Parnasse put Cross on his back, that will be even worse, as Parnasse is capable of some truly devastating ground-and-pound.
Wherever he decides to do it, Parnasse by knockout in Round 2.
Pick: Parnasse
Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne
If Junior dos Santos decides to stand and trade with Robelis Despaigne for even a few seconds, this fight will last only a few seconds. With respect to the former UFC heavyweight champion, legitimately one of the most feared strikers in the division in his day, he needs to accept his limitations here and do something Despaigne cannot do: grapple.
This ain’t Karate Combat. Dos Santos has no obligation to meet Despaigne in the middle and throw down. What better way to remind millions and millions of viewers that this is MMA by sprinkling in some wrestling and jiu-jitsu? Despaigne has run roughshod over his Karate Combat foes, but dos Santos is in another class.
Then again, dos Santos is also 42 years old and he has a lot of mileage on him. Even if his plan is to shoot in right away, who’s to say Despaigne doesn’t catch him with a counter and leave him facedown on the canvas? Despaigne’s Taekwondo style isn’t one to easily prepare for, so dos Santos will have trouble getting a read on “The Big Boy.” And if he doesn’t figure out how to get inside quick, he’s toast.
I know I’m going with my heart here and not my head, but dos Santos gets a takedown and finishes Despaigne with ground-and-pound.
Pick: dos Santos
Preliminaries
Namo Fazil def. Jake Babian
Adriano Moraes def. Phumi Nkuta
Jason Jackson def. Jeff Creighton
David Mgoyan def. Albert Morales
Aline Pereira def. Jade Masson-Wong
Chris Avila def. Brandon Jenkins
