The Celtics record this season is 24-15 with an 8-12 record in clutch time games. In other words, they have been bad in games within 5 points with five minutes or less — why is that?
In clutch minutes this season, the Celtics are 15th in offense (scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions), 28th in defense (giving up 123.6 points per 100 possessions) and 25th in net rating (-13.5). The answer to why the Celtics have been bad in clutch time seems obvious: they don’t get stops.
Boston is giving up an effective
field goal percentage of 52.5% in clutch time, which is 24th in the NBA. Boston’s defensive rating for the entire season is 15th in the league which is not great and it gets worse in clutch time scenarios. If we go even farther under the hood, there are other reasons as to why the Celtics are struggling late in games.
It is important to point out that one reason the Celtics are struggling late in games is because they are missing their do it all 6-foot-10 point forward who is their best passer, scorer, rebounder and most versatile defensive player. To me, the place where the Celtics have missed Jayson Tatum the most this season is in those clutch moments in the game.
Last season in clutch time, Tatum was the Celtics leading scorer, assist man and rebounder. In 127.6 clutch time minutes in the last regular season, J.T. scored 91 points (23 more than anyone else), grabbed 28 rebounds (13 more than anyone else) and had 25 assists (11 more than anyone else). You cannot replace that kind of production.
The Celtics, in large part, have struggled in clutch games this season because of Jayson Tatum’s Achilles but that is not the only reason.
One of the biggest concerns coming into the season for Boston was their defensive rebounding. While they have improved in that regard as the season has gone on, those worries has come to fruition. The C’s are 22nd in defensive rebounding rate, rebounding 68.5% of teams misses.
One way they have made up for this is by rebounding their own misses at a really high rate, with an offensive rebounding rate of 33.3%, which is 7th in the NBA. However, this has not held up in the clutch moments.
The Celtics are 29th in the NBA (only the Heat are worse) in offensive rebound rate in clutch time, only grabbing 23.6% of their own misses. Their defensive rebounding rate also plummets late in games: they grab 59% of opponents misses, which is 27th in the league.
In the non-clutch moments of their game, the Celtics are 9th in the NBA in rebounding rate, collecting 50.9% of misses. In clutch moments, that number drops to 42.2%, which is 27th in the Association.
The Celtics have done a good job of using their own offensive rebounds to make up for the other team getting those 2nd chance opportunities. They just have not done a good job of it late in games and need to improve on it going forward.
