On a crazy night at Fenway Park, Cade Cavalli easily had the best start of his career. He tore through the Red Sox lineup, generating 25 whiffs and getting 13 strikeouts. Cavalli has always shown the stuff to be a top of the rotation caliber arm, but last night he took it to a whole new level.
Even when Cavalli allowed an unearned run in the first inning, you could tell that the ball was coming out of his hand nicely. His velocity was up and his breaking balls had extra bite. That feeling was confirmed
in the second inning when he struck out the side and touched triple digits on a couple of occasions.
We have seen the big right hander look good before, but he has never looked like this. The most impressive part of his performance was how amazing his fastball looked. For most of the season, his fastball has been quite hittable despite premium velocity. Even after last night, batters are hitting .317 on his 4-seamer and .339 on his sinker. Usually Cavalli’s curveball and sweeper are the stars of the show.
However, he was just blowing number one right by Red Sox hitters. 15 of his 25 whiffs came on the 4-seam fastball. He got whiffs on the pitch up in the zone, but even when it was middle or down, Red Sox hitters still could not get to it. Cavalli has always been a hard thrower, but we were seeing more 99’s than usual last night. From the jump he seemed amped up for his start and that only intensified after the 4th inning brawl.
One interesting wrinkle from last night is that Cavalli seemed to be mixing in some sort of cutter. Baseball Savant did not have him throwing a cutter, but watching the game, it looked like he was throwing a slower fastball at around 94-95 MPH that had noticeably more cutting movement. Pitch Profiler on X had him throwing a slider and a cutter, but I think that was just one pitch type.
Cavalli has natural cut on his fastball, but this seemed more intentional. On the broadcast, Kevin Frandsen has said that Cavalli used to have more of a riding fastball, but after his Tommy John Surgery, something changed about the shape of the pitch. I think Cavalli should keep throwing that cutter because it is a good bridge between his fastball and curve.
The funny thing about last night’s start is that Cavalli did not have his best curveball. Usually, Cavalli’s hard downer curve is his best pitch and go to swing and miss weapon. However, he only got 3 of his 25 whiffs on the pitch. His sweeper was actually his best breaking ball last night.
The sweeper is a new piece of Cavalli’s arsenal this year. After right handed hitters gave him issues last year, he added the pitch in an attempt to neutralize them. At times, the curve and sweeper bleed together. However, you could tell they were two different offerings last night. He got several K’s on the sweeper. For his final strikeout though, he finally got his old reliable curveball to work, freezing Jarren Duran.
This was the type of pitching masterclass that Nats fans have been starved of since the days of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. MacKenzie Gore had some great outings, especially on Opening Day last year, but none of them were as dominant as this. Cavalli did not allow a single baserunner after the first inning.
For the 27 year old, this has to be such a great moment. He has gone through a lot to get to this place in his career. After being drafted in 2020, he rose through the minors and became a top prospect. He made one start in 2022, but immediately got injured. That next Spring Training his elbow blew out and he had to undergo Tommy John Surgery.
Tommy John recovery is tough for anyone, but he had an especially difficult road back. He had a number of setbacks along the way which forced him to pretty much miss two seasons. Cavalli also did not look amazing in the minors last year. However, he got his shot in the bigs at the end of last year and showed promise.
The new regime clearly took deep interest in him, and showed him that by making him the Opening Day starter despite his inexperience. Cavalli has had his ups and downs this year, but overall, he has rewarded that faith. For the season, Cavalli has a 3.69 ERA and 3.22 FIP in 90.1 innings. He has 2.1 fWAR now and is striking out over 10 hitters per nine innings while walking under three per nine.
Last night showed us that he still has another level to get to. I am not sure the fastball will be this electric moving forward, but if he can make that pitch more of an asset, look out. He was pounding the zone with the heater and when it was outside the zone, he got Red Sox hitters to chase it.
A lot went on in last night’s game, but Cavalli’s dominant outing was certainly the highlight for me. He really did look like Max Scherzer out there with his intensity and high octane stuff. I am very curious to see how Cavalli follows up this start because consistency has been a bit of an issue for him. However, if he has another great outing after this, it is time to start having real conversations about Cade Cavalli being a frontline starter. The stuff is electric, the competitive fire is there and now all we need is a bit more consistency.
