Cleveland in April is not a vacation destination. As a former resident of Ohio, I can tell you that that “Lake Effect” is real. With temperatures on Tuesday expected to hover around freezing, the game has been moved from a night game to a day game. The Royals dropped lost their April series in Cleveland last year, and dropped five of seven there for the year.
Kansas City Royals (4-5) vs. Cleveland Guardians (6-4) at Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Royals: 4.22 runs scored/game (14th in MLB), 4.78
runs allowed/game (20th)
Guardians: 3.20 runs scored/game (28th), 3.70 runs allowed/game (7th)
Runs have come at a premium for the Guardians, who have scored one or fewer runs in six of their ten games so far, and have yet to score more than six runs in a game. Star José Ramírez just signed a seven-year, $115 million contract extension last winter, but is off to a slow start this year, hitting .154/.214/.282. The team added Rhys Hoskins, who hit 26 home runs for the Brewers in 2024, but missed significant time last year with a thumb injury. David Fry was an All-Star in 2024, but has hit .206/.269/.392 in 120 games since then.
Rookie Chase DeLauter is off to a phenomenal start with five home runs in his first nine MLB games, and a line of .313/.343/.781. Kyle Manzardo has terrorized the Royals in his career, hitting .333/.443/.647 with three home runs in 16 games, but is off to a dreadful 2-for-30 (.067) so far this year. Steven Kwan had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (8.7%) in baseball last year.
*-All numbers from 2025
Gavin Williams was one of the best pitchers in baseball after the All-Star break last year, with a 2.18 ERA that ranked third-best in the second half. Overall, he had the highest walk rate last year of any qualified starter. In eight career starts against hte Royals, he has a 2.36 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 45.2 innings.
Tanner Bibee had a terrific run in 2023-24, but regressed a bit last year. He gave up three solo home runs in five innings his first start in 2026, and lasted just four innings in his second game. Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .316/.458/.632 in 24 career plate appearances against him, while Salvador Perez is hitless in 17 at-bats.
Joey Cantillo had a 2.96 ERA in 13 starts last year. He had a reverse split in 2025, where lefties hit him better than righties. He has an excellent change up that netted a 49 percent whiff rate.
Note that Tuesday’s game has been moved to a day game due to concerns over cold temperatures.
*-All numbers from 2025
Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz are both on non-paid disciplinary leave and facing federal indictments for their roles in a gambling scheme, but the Guardians still put together a terrific bullpen last year. Cade Smith has taken over closing duties, but has been wobbly in his outings this year, with a blown save in four opportunities and five runs allowed in six games. Opponents are 1-for-14 (.071) against Erik Sabrowski this season. The Guardians are one of three teams (including the Royals) that has not allowed an inherited runner to score.
*-All numbers from 2025
With cold temperatures, two below-average lineups, and two pitching staffs with a track record of success, expect a low-scoring series this week in Ohio. The Royals have had some bullpen issues to start the year that they will need to iron out this week. The Guardians are the defending division champs, and the Royals will need to show they can stand toe-to-toe with them if they are going to seriously compete for a division title this year.
