It feels like the MLB roster is all but set for the Yankees. With Cody Bellinger back in the fold, and backing up Aaron Judge, the club will more or less return the same nine or ten everyday players that
we saw last season. The other major position player signing this winter was of course Trent Grisham, who picked up the qualifying offer, and I’ve seen a growing consensus that the Yankees won’t just run back the same first-stringers, but they’ll run back eseentially the same lineup with Grisham in the leadoff spot.
To his credit, Grisham did just fine for himself atop the Yankees’ order last year. A 129 wRC+ while slotted into leadoff 88 times in 2025 is nothing to sneeze at, and six times throughout the year he started the game with a home run, putting the Yanks on the board in an instant. Still, there’s something to worry about whenever a guy has such an outstanding year by his own standards, and as good as Grish was in his contract season, I think there’s a guy that makes a little more sense to pencil into the No. 1 spot.
Ben Rice also had a breakout year in 2025, a 133 wRC+ season that finally brought some life to a first base position that’s generally struggled to find thump over the last decade or so. While he may still see some time as the Yankees’ third catcher behind Austin Wells and J.C. Escarra, he’s probably best utilized as the full-time first baseman — both to maximize his offensive output, and allow him to work out some of those defensive warts we saw last year.
Rice did lead off 21 times this past season, but I think keeping him there full-time in 2026 gives the Yankees just a few more runs squeezed out, even without factoring in what I think is likely regression from Grisham. Although the center fielder reached base by about 15 points more than Rice, but we’re not talking about what has happened, we’re talking about what we can reasonably expect to happen going forward.
We already know about Rice’s extraordinary batted-ball data, how hard he makes contact, and how frequently he gets the ball in the air. He’s actually walked less in the majors than he did during his time as a prospect, sacrificing some of his patience in order to club pitches. I don’t think that’s necessarily a liability though — you need your leadoff hitter to get on base while remaining a real threat should you make a mistake, it’s not really relevant whether you walk or hit your way aboard.
That said, I think there’s a level of OBP yet to be unlocked in Rice. The key to that is the strategy of the opposing pitcher, as Aaron Judge typically hits second or third in the lineup. “Protection” is a little slippery as a concept, but last year Grisham saw more pitches in the zone hitting ahead of Judge than he did in any seasons with the Padres. Pitchers want to make you force your way aboard before they have to deal with the game’s finest hitter, so you’re likely to see an uptick in pitches in-zone. Ben Rice posts a superior xBA, xSLG, exit velo, squared-up rate, barrel percentage, and hard-hit rate than Grisham — in short, when they offer at pitches, Rice does more damage.
Grisham is slightly better at not chasing, even though Rice makes more contact overall, an edge that I think would be negated should Rice see a tick up from 52 percent of pitches in-zone that he saw in 2025 to the 54-percent mark Grisham saw as a leadoff hitter. Rice isn’t quite as good at avoiding the chase, but if he gets more pitches in the strike zone, he’ll crush them more effectively than Grisham.
In a way, we’re designing a middle-class Kyle Schwarber. War Bear was never considered the prototypical leadoff bat before slotting atop the Phillies lineup beginning in their pennant-winning 2022 and being arguably the most dangerous hitter not named Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani in recent years. Still, the Phillies trusted the gonzo contact data that Schwarber produced, and pitchers began to learn — from 2023-25 Schwarber has walked more than his career baseline, because pitchers either have to come in the zone and risk his bat, or give him easy takes out of the zone. Even though the Phillies elected to deploy Trea Turner at leadoff for much of 2025 instead of Schwarber,a similar kind of situation is the goal with Rice.
Grisham’s 2025 was a marvel, making us almost forget that he was an add-on in the Juan Soto trade. Ben Rice’s better batted-ball numbers, alongside his likelihood of seeing more pitches in the zone, make him the best candidate to start games with a bang in 2026.
