With one game remaining in week six of the 2026 NFL season the Denver Broncos’ run game has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Broncos are 30th in yards per carry at 3.4. Only the Raiders (3.0) and the Packers (2.9) are worse. The Chiefs lead the league at 5.5. The Bronco run game is tied for last (with four other teams) in terms of explosive runs (runs that gain 10 or more) at nine. The Bills lead the league with 31
.The only area where the Broncos have been moderately successful in the run game
is converting on 3rd or 4th down and short (one or two yards needed). They have converted on ten of thirteen (77 percent). The Steelers lead the league at 100 percent (9 for 9), while the Seahawks have been worst (25 percent, 2 for 8).
So where does the blame lie – with the running backs, or with the offensive line? We will look at three measures of how well the offensive line is run blocking and then a couple of advanced metrics on running back performance.
Offensive Line
SISdatahub.com has a stat called blown blocks and another called stuffs. A blown block is any time a blocker does not successfully block the defender they attempted to engage with and, as a result, gives the defender an opportunity to negatively affect the play. A stuff is when that blown block leads to a TFL for the defender that the blocker was supposed to block. A blown block can lead to a stuff, but does not have to if the ballcarrier avoids the tackler in the backfield.
The Bronco OL has been doing a good job of not blowing blocks or getting stuffed according to SISdatahub.com.
They have only 10 blown blocks in the run game and they have only have two stuffs. After six games, 15.5 percent of runs for the Broncos this season have gained 0 yards or lost yards. That is the 11th best value in the league. The Rams have been best at 11.9 percent and the Packers have been worst at 24.6 percent. So this tracks with what SIS is saying about the OL not getting abused, but how do we tell if they are getting any push in the run game (moving defenders off the LOS). That can be seen be average yards before RB contact on run plays which will be discussed after we see ESPN’s run block win rate. None of the Bronco OL guys are in the top 10 individually, and the team is average in both run block win rate and pass block win rate.
If the OL is blocking well, running backs will get 2.5+ yards past the LOS before they are contacted by a defender. Currently the two leaders in yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att) are James Cook at 3.92 and Kenneth Walker at 3.64. Among qualifiers, Quinshon Judkins has the lowest at 1.53. JK Dobbins is fifth lowest at 1.69.
YBC is a function of the blocking of the OL and the elusiveness of running back. Yards after contact is all on the RB. Dobbins is currently getting 1.64 yards after contact per attempt. That is 16th of 41 qualifiers, so that is above average. The best RBs in the NFL are getting 2.5 or more yards after contact per carry. Those are Jaylen Warren (2.68), Walker (2.63), and Kyle Monangai (2.55). The four worst qualifiers are getting less than one yard after contact per carry. Those are Woody Marks (0.98), Tyler Allgeier (0.98), Marshawn Lloyd (0.81), and Kendre Miller (0.69).
Success rate is another stat that can be used to compare running backs, although it can be hard to decouple it from blocking. A successful run on first down gains 40% of the needed yards, on second down it gains 60% of the needed yards, and on third or fourth down it converts. JK Dobbins has a success rate of 38.3 this season, which is tied for second to last among 41 runners (two QBs have enough carries to qualify – Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson). Only Lloyd has a lower success rate at 37.5 percent. Kyren Williams has the best success rate among RBs with a 60 percent – Josh Allen’s 62.5 percent leads all runners. For comparison, RJ Harvey has a 57.1 percent success rate (admittedly on only 21 carriers). Tyler Badie has a 66.7 percent on only six carries. Jonah Coleman has a 40 percent success rate on his ten runs. So all of the RBs who have carried the ball (omitting Adam Prentice’s one carry) have a better success rate than Dobbins, but he has more carries than the other three combined – 81 to 37.
Dobbins 81 carriers have gained 270 yards – 3.33 yards per carry. The other RBs have gained 142 yards on their 37 carries – 3.84 yards per carry. While that is not great, it is still half a yard per carry better than Dobbins. Dobbins does have the only broken tackle in the running game among the running backs. However, one broken tackle on 81 carries is poor. Kenneth Walker has 12 broken tackles (not all against Denver) on 106 carries – one broken tackle every 8.9 carries. Only Blake Corum and TreVeyon Henderson have zero broken tackles in the run game among qualifying RBs.
Conclusion
Looking at all the data, I would put the majority of the blame for the feckless Bronco run game on JK Dobbins. The OL has not been great by any stretch, but they appear to be average in run blocking. So a competent running back should be getting better results behind them. Dobbins has been one of the worst primary ballcarriers in the NFL so far this season. The fact that Harvey, Coleman and Badie have all gotten better results than he has points the finger at JK and not at the OL.
I should also mention that the play calling could be having an effect, but the defense is not. Dobbins is facing an 8-man box on only 17.3 percent of his runs according to NFL nextgen stats. That is one of the lower values in the league. So he (and the OL) are failing to run the ball effectively against light boxes. Defenses are daring the Broncos to run because they know they can stop the run game without committing a safety to the run. Kendre Miller is facing a heavy box at twice the rate that Dobbins is.
Dobbins is also taking 2.98s per run to get to the LOS (TLOS). This is the sixth highest TLOS in the league, but this is not necessarily a bad thing as Kyren Williams, Jeremiyah Love and Saquon Barkley all take about the same amount of time to get to the LOS. Keaton Mitchell’s 3.18 is the highest while Chris Rodriguez Jr.‘s 2.44 seconds is the lowest. For what it’s worth, there is no correlation between TLOS and YPC or between TLOS and RYOE/att. RYOE is rushing yards over expected.
