The Buffalo Bills face off against the New England Patriots this weekend, and this game could decide the AFC East division champ. With a victory, New England will clinch their first division title since
the 2019 season, which would simultaneously break a six-year streak of division titles for the Bills, who have won it every season since.
Given that the Patriots beat Buffalo earlier this season, winning 23-20 in primetime all the way back in October, the tiebreaker goes to New England at the moment. The Bills have just one divisional game remaining after this one, the regular-season finale against the New York Jets, while the Patriots play those same Jets in Week 17 before finishing with the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Buffalo has a chance at retaining the AFC East crown, but they need some help, as they’ll need to win every remaining game and hope that New England drops one of those two final contests.
Before Buffalo goes begging for help from elsewhere, however, they can help themselves with a win this week. While the Bills can’t clinch a playoff spot this week, they can take their odds as close to 100% as possible without officially clinching if they just win Sunday’s game. In order to come out with a win, they’ll need some big performances from their big players.
Here are five Bills players to watch this week against the Patriots.
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QB Josh Allen
The last time these two teams played, Allen was fine, completing 22-of-31 passes for 253 yards, two scores, and one interception. He was also Buffalo’s leading rusher, carrying nine times for 53 yards. He made one huge mistake, throwing an interception in the low red zone late in the third quarter while targeting a double-covered Khalil Shakir.
If Allen takes the easy money on that play and checks down to James Cook, Buffalo lives to fight another down. They might score a touchdown, or at worst, they kick a field goal. In a game that Buffalo ultimately lost by three points, it was a pair of bad turnovers — the aforementioned interception and a Keon Coleman fumble inside Buffalo’s own 10-yard line — that doomed the Bills.
If Allen can avoid turnovers and maintain a pace similar to what he did in the first meeting, it will likely be enough to keep the Bills in position to win. However, if he forces the ball and puts it in harm’s way, New England’s defense will capitalize.
Allen put on his cape last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, but this New England defense is much better than Cincinnati’s leagueworst unit. It’s a different challenge this week, but if anyone is up to the task, it’s the reigning MVP.
RB James Cook
Part of Buffalo’s offensive struggles against the Patriots — the biggest part, in my opinion — was the inability to run the football consistently. Cook carried 15 times for just 49 yards in the loss. More maddeningly, he was only targeted once in the passing game, and he did not catch that target.
In Cook’s other two games this year where he gained less than 50 yards, he was at least a factor as a receiver. Against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, he caught all five of his targets for 58 yards. In Week 11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he caught all three of his targets for 66 yards and a touchdown.
Cook is Buffalo’s most dynamic offensive weapon, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady can’t be afraid to scheme touches for him as a receiver. The Pats are without nose tackle Milton Williams, who suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 11. Including that game and in the games since, New England has allowed 140, 120, and 111 yards rushing, respectively.
Prior to Williams’ injury, the Patriots had only allowed 100 or more rushing yards three times all season; since, they’ve allowed it in all three games they’ve played. Buffalo needs to find ways to beat the Patriots on the ground this week, and Cook is the key.
TE Dalton Kincaid
Buffalo’s passing game has seemed to unlock something over the last few weeks, and it’s coming through the use of under-center play-action. That’s not terribly surprising given the team’s success on the ground all season, but with Kincaid back in the fold, the Bills could try to mirror the Tom Brady-era Patriots in their usage of quick play-action for chunk plays to their tight ends.
Kincaid and Dawson Knox may not be Rob Gronkowski, but the Bills and offensive coordinator Joe Brady had great success using the middle of the field last week against the Bengals. The Patriots don’t defend tight ends well, either, and while they aren’t the embarrassment that the Bengals are in that regard, they do struggle to defend tight ends.
New England has allowed 79 tight end catches this season, tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the sixth-most in the league. They’ve allowed 789 receiving yards to tight ends, as well, which is 11th-most in the league.
Kincaid looked good last week, and he had his best game of the season against New England in the first meeting, catching all six of his targets for 108 yards. Buffalo would be wise to continue looking to the middle of the field in the passing game, and Kincaid needs to be a focal point this week.
LB Matt Milano
The Bills need to put pressure on quarterback Drake Maye in order to win the game. Based on how it’s gone lately, they’re not going to be able to do that with just their front four. They’re going to need to blitz a little here and trust their secondary players to play man coverage.
Milano, in my eyes, is the linebacker best suited to bring the heat, so I’d like to see him in a mirror/fire role a bit on Sunday. If Maye breaks contain, Milano is the guy who should go clean up the mess. He’s also going to be wildly important in pass coverage, as New England has a terrific slot receiver in Stefon Diggs (more on him below), and a fantastic tight end group that includes Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
While Milano is settling into a more niche role in his age-30 season, he still has the ability to make some big hits. He has zero pass breakups on the season, though, and he also has zero forced fumbles. He hasn’t had a sack since Week 1, either. Sunday would be a good time for him to add to those “splash” columns.
CB Taron Johnson
Stefon Diggs operates out of the slot approximately 70% of the time. As much as we’d like to see Buffalo’s top cornerback, Christian Benford (who was in a walking shoe — not a walking boot — after practice on Thursday, where he was a limited participant), travel with Diggs, it’s unlikely to happen if Diggs plays from the slot.
Last week, we saw the Cincinnati Bengals move Ja’Marr Chase into the slot for a few snaps, and he found some favorable matchups against the likes of Johnson and Cam Lewis. Diggs is not Chase, but he’s still capable of doing plenty of damage. His best game was, of course, against Buffalo earlier this season.
It’s quite likely that the Patriots will use Diggs in the same way they did in the first matchup. They’ll put him in the slot and run him across the field, using hard play-action to draw the linebackers and neutralize Buffalo’s zone integrity.
Johnson isn’t having his best season, but he’s been effective as both a cover guy and a run defender. For his career, Johnson has allowed 65% of the passes thrown his way to be completed for an average of 9.4 yards per catch. This season, he’s allowed 66% of the passes thrown his way to be completed for an average of 11.4 yards per catch.
While it feels like a huge step backward for Johnson, it really hasn’t been far off his career norms. He’ll need to come up big on Sunday, as he’s likely to be a key to the Bills’ defensive effort.
