It is never too early to start talking about the upcoming MLB Draft. While the draft is not until July, we are going to start a series where we talk about some prospects the Nats could take. With the Nats picking 11th this year, there are a lot of names that could be in the mix. The first one we will discuss is right handed pitcher Jackson Flora from UC Santa Barbara.
Right now, Flora is probably my favorite prospect I could see the Nats taking at 11th. The Nats need to load up on college arms and
Flora has a chance to be the best one in the class. He is a big right handed pitcher with power stuff and strong control.
Despite not being the first school that comes to mind when you think of college baseball, UCSB has produced a lot of pitching. Last year, the Angels selected Gauchos ace Tyler Bremner with the second overall pick. Flora has a chance to be even better than his teammate though.
The fastball is the foundation of Flora’s arsenal. It already averages 97 MPH and has good life at the top of the zone. The fastball can touch triple digits as well. His heater is a plus pitch, with scouts giving it a 70 grade. Even these days, that kind of premium velocity does not grow on trees.
It is not just pure power with Flora though. He pounds the zone with his heater. Flora only walked 2 batters per nine innings last season. That combination of stuff and command is the kind of thing that makes scouts drool.
To go with the heater, Flora has a couple different sliders that have the potential to be plus pitches. His go-to secondary pitch is a big sweeper that comes in at around 80 MPH. Flora can really spin that thing and he gets a ton of movement on the sweeper. It is his out pitch that he uses to put hitters away.
Flora has also shown the ability to throw a harder slider as well. He leans on the sweeper more though. In fact, the biggest concern about Flora is his shallow pitch mix. Last season, Flora threw his fastball or slider 94% of the time. For Flora to be a top 15 pick, he is going to have to find a reliable third pitch.
From the reports, it sounds like he is adding a couple new pitches to his arsenal. The first one is a kick changeup that has scouts buzzing. Some even said that the pitch is already a plus offering. We will need to see that in game before you can say that for sure though. He also added a curveball too. If those pitches become above average offerings right away, the Nats may not have a chance to select him.
The most interesting new pitch in his arsenal is that kick change. Kick changeups have become all the rage lately. It is a normal changeup grip except you spike the ball with your middle finger like a knuckleball. The pitch has a ton of movement and kills spin more effectively than the average changeup.
Changeups can be a tough pitch to throw for natural supinators. The pronation required to throw a good changeup is not super natural for a lot of guys. Kick changeups take that pronation out of the equation. The grip is what creates the movement.
Back to Flora, most mocks have him in the teens right now, with MLB Pipeline having him at 16 to the Rangers and Baseball America mocking him 14th to the Marlins. However, he has a lot of helium right now and could rise as the process goes on.
At UCSB, Flora does not face the strongest competition, so scouts want to see him dominate. If his new pitches become what they are hyped up to be, he is going to dominate. He has the fastball, the slider and the control. Deepening his arsenal would make him a complete prospect.
Like most young pitchers, there are some inconsistencies, but he throws strikes. His delivery has some effort to it, so that is also something to watch. However, Flora seems to have a very high floor. The fastball, slider and strikes give him an obvious big league projection. With continued development, there could be real top of the rotation upside here.
Despite not being ranked in the top 10 right now, I certainly have some fear that Flora will not make it to the pick. His stuff and command is rare. Flora’s teammate Tyler Bremner went second overall despite putting up similar numbers to him.
The Nationals have a lot of high risk, high reward arms in their system right now. Travis Sykora, Jarlin Susana, Alex Clemmey, Landon Harmon and Miguel Sime Jr. all fit that profile. They could use a pitcher who has less risk in his profile and Flora fits the bill while also having huge upside. If I were Paul Toboni, I would be keeping a very close eye on the UCSB Gauchos ace.
