While the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays fight it out for the 2025 World Series trophy, the rest of baseball is planning for 2026. If you aren’t a fan of the two teams currently still playing,
then looking forward is what most of us are doing. Conjecture takes a prominent role during the MLB offseason, with fans and analysts alike dreaming and prognosticating for the coming year.
With the Padres, payroll is where the conversation usually begins. What will the organization have available to spend to build the 2026 roster?
Using the numbers projected by Fangraphs for the Padres in 2026, the front office looks to have some money to spend; assuming a payroll close to what the team carried in 2025.
The Friars have multiple free agents, or presumed free agents, coming off the payroll. They also have over $15 million subtracted from players that were owed money last year and are no longer (Eric Hosmer, Ha-Seong Kim, Connor Joe).
The team ended 2025 with $263,010,391 (estimated) in CBT payroll. Although the actual payroll was significantly less than that, the CBT payroll is what counts toward penalties the team owes after the season. All player’s contracts annual value is how MLB calculates the CBT payroll. That is not the same number as what the player is paid for any given year; due to the way many contracts have graduated salaries.
The Padres 2025 CBT payroll is $20-plus million over the second level of the CBT limit of $241 million. Because the Padres stayed under the CBT penalty in 2024, they will owe 20 percent of their overage or $4.6 million. There is also a 12 percent surcharge for exceeding the threshold by $20-40 million, and that is another $2.76 million for the Padres and means their total tax would be $7.36 million (approximately).
The penalties go up significantly for each year that an organization exceeds the threshold, so that would mean a heftier penalty if the Friars exceed the CBT payroll again next season. The CBT threshold for the 2026 season is $244 million.
With the presumed free agency of Dylan Cease, Michael King, Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez, the Padres clear more payroll. Bench player Jose Iglesias and starter Nestor Cortes are also free agents. Catcher Martin Maldonado retired after the 2025 season. With all that money coming off the books the Padres have some flexibility. Catcher Elias Diaz has a mutual option of $7 million that would also be subtracted if either he or the team declines the option.
That would potentially give the Padres a CBT payroll of $194- 201 million as a baseline for 2026. They could spend $43-50 million for free agents and still stay below the first threshold for 2026. The other point to remember is the tax is not calculated until after the season so it doesn’t matter where you start the year.
We all know the needs for the Padres roster
They are short at least two starting pitchers, and that includes JP Sears, Matt Waldron and Omar Cruz, who are all on the 40-man roster and will be given opportunities in the Spring. Joe Musgrove is returning, along with Randy Vasquez and Nick Pivetta. The fate of Yu Darvish for 2026 is unknown at this point. It seems obvious that if he is unable to return to a healthy enough state to pitch at least a half season, he should not be counted on for the rotation. His elbow seems to be on borrowed time. He could settle the matter by retiring if he doesn’t think he will be able to contribute as he would like. Cease is a luxury the team can’t afford with his inconsistency.
Fortunately, the bullpen remains an area of strength that is not in need of Suarez. At 34 years old, Suarez needs his biggest payday while he is still an effective reliever and that shouldn’t come from the Padres.
Retaining O’Hearn would be a consideration, depending on the cost. He could assume the first base job with the departure of Arraez. The organization should only consider retaining Arraez if he comes at a reasonable salary. A team like the Friars can’t afford the luxury of a single tool player unless he comes cheaply.
Acquiring a right-handed power bat and filling out the bench come in as top priorities, along with the starting pitching. President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller will undoubtedly repeat his habit of signing journeyman free agents to one-year contracts, as he has for the past several seasons. Preller has been fortunate to have at least one of those players (Gavin Sheets) stick with the team and do well for the past couple of years. There have also been abysmal failures that have contributed to the need to augment the roster as the season goes on.
All about the money
It seems unlikely that we will know what the budget given to Preller will be. The team does not release or discuss financial details. All we ever get is a statement that a competitive team will be put on the field and that the organization has the finances to field that competitive team.
The Padres were supposedly unable to spend money last season, if the preseason reports were to be believed. Yet they ended the season with a CBT payroll well over the threshold and have made no statements regarding cutting payroll for next year.
Putting on my general manager hat, here is my priority list for mid-November and into 2026.
- Offer Michael King a 2- or 3-year deal with the first year as a prove-it year. After the medical issues of his past season it would be in his best interest to do a short deal now and build up his value.
- Find a right-handed hitting power bat that can DH and/or play first base. He can rotate with Gavin Sheets and/or O’Hearn to add more power to the lineup (Rhys Hoskins could be an option).
- Find another Nick Pivetta-type. Preller excels at finding and signing pitchers who are undervalued and want to prove themselves. If that option doesn’t work out then converting a reliever to a starter is another option that has been successful for the team (Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller have both been starters in the past).
- Fill out the bench with more of those one-year contracts and hope that another Gavin Sheets develops.
These thoughts are assuming the Padres’ budget is on the conservative side. If there is more money to be spent beyond that, then grabbing more power for the lineup and another quality starter would be top of the list.
