The last analysis I did to preview the Buffalo Bills’ Week 6 game against the Atlanta Falcons leaned heavily on the idea of that team’s volatility. It turns out the Bills got a very good version of the Falcons and
came away with a loss.
I could write a similar article this week about the Carolina Panthers. A team that not only beat Atlanta, but dominated them with a 30-0 shutout. That makes it weird that just a few weeks later this same team struggled mightily to beat the New York Jets. As Bills fans likely remembered, Buffalo dominated the Jets.
This got me thinking that maybe the Bills have been a bit volatile too this season and perhaps they’re not so different from the Panthers. When I started stat diving, I noticed some other similarities too.
Bills at Panthers: comparing offenses
On offense the Panthers want to control the ball, with an average time of possession of 32:33 per game. That’s second-best in the league, right behind the Bills, that average 33:12 time of possession per game. I don’t know about everyone else, but when I think of ball control, I think of teams that run the ball well and do it often.
Apparently that thinking is correct when it comes to these two teams. The Bills and Panthers average 151 and 140 rushing yards per game, respectively. That’s first and third in the league. It’s not just a volume thing either, with Buffalo rushing 31 times per game and Carolina running the ball 29.7 times per game. That’s first and fourth in the league if you care about rankings.
It’s not just volume either in the run game. the Panthers have the eighth-best rushing attack in efficiency with 4.72 yards per attempt. The Bills are a tick ahead with 4.82 yards per rush.
I’m starting with these similarities because in a few moments I’m going to point out some critical differences. What’s striking to me from the rushing stats and time of possession is not necessarily how close the teams are right now, but how close they are to each other in who they’d like to be. Both teams seem intent on grinding their opponent down with the run game.
Here’s where the Spider-Man meme starts to fall apart though. The passing game. The Bills are 11th in the league in passing yards per game, but remember they emphasize the run game. They’re sixth-best in passing efficiency, gaining 7.58 yards per pass. Carolina is 29th in passing efficiency. They’re more than two full yards behind Buffalo, with 5.51 yards per pass.
This factors heavily into overall efficiency with the Bills having the fourth-highest total yards per play, and the Panthers landing at 25th in the league. You might surmise this plays into the ultimate stat, aka “points,” and you’d be right. Despite a couple recent shaky games Buffalo is still the fourth-best team in scoring — with 27.8 points per game (2.66 points per drive). The Panthers are not the fourth-best team, scoring below league average with 20.7 points per game (2.01 points per drive).
Now let’s turn to the defense, which is more like a funhouse mirror for the Bills.
Bills at Panthers: comparing defenses
On defense, a quick glance at Carolina’s stats might look like a mirror image too. The Panthers are allowing 21.7 points per game. That’s slightly better than the league’s mean average of 23.1 points allowed per game. Believe it not, Buffalo is also slightly better than the league average. The Bills allow 22.8 points per game. Carolina has the edge but the teams are very close to one another.
On this side of the ball though, the surface reflection is hiding a distortion. The two teams have so far allowed similar results, but you sure wouldn’t know it by looking at many other metrics.
When it comes to allowing yards, the Panthers are even keeled. They allow the seventh-least per game and 12th-least per play. Nothing crazy to see there. Buffalo ranks 15th per game (which is average), but 25th in the league per play (which is bad).
When it comes to yards per play, Carolina allows 4.08 yards per rush (13th), and 6.43 yards per pass (15th). So, pretty average all around. The Bills could have an argument for meeting in the middle, but that’s due to their extremes. They allow 5.75 yards per rush. No one in the league is worse. In the passing game, few teams are better though. At 6.08 yards per pass, Buffalo is seventh-best in the league.
As a fun aside, I bet I know what many of you are thinking. They do well in the pass because there’s no need to stop running on them. That’s not entirely accurate. First, remember that I’m giving rates not volume, so there’s some truth to the Bills having a good pass defense already. That said, there are only six other teams with a higher percentage of plays against them being run plays. About 49.7% of plays by Buffalo’s opponents are run plays.
The bottom line is that if you looked at anything aside from points per game, Carolina would almost certainly come across as a much stronger defense. Despite being weaker on paper though, the Bills are nearly as good as the Panthers at preventing points.
The Final Straw
Both teams will look to control the game on the ground with similar rushing attack potency. That should pose a problem for the Bills, who has the worst run defense in the league. It’s reasonable to think that if both teams are steadfast about running, then the Panthers have a distinct advantage.
Buffalo’s advantage is that realistically there’s no reason they need to stick with the run. The Bills have Josh Allen to throw the ball. It’s also not as if Carolina boasts a dominant run defense, just not worst in the league like Buffalo. The Bills’ offense should be alright.
It might come down to one or two key stops on defense. Can Buffalo prove doubters wrong? Will defensive end Michael Hoecht and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi play? If so, will they make a big difference? For Bills Mafia, it’s best to cross those fingers and get ready to shout.
