It’s an important day for the Bucks: the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery takes place at 2 p.m. Central this afternoon. Shortly thereafter, we’ll know where Milwaukee will select for their first lottery pick since 2016: will they get really (and I mean really) lucky and receive a top-four selection in what’s long been called a loaded draft class? Or will they be in the most likely places of 10th and 11th? Wherever they end up, will they use that pick to draft someone, or trade it for someone who helps them
become a winning team again?
As we wait for that answer, here’s a rundown of what you should expect when you’re watching today.
The Bucks’ draft odds
We started discussing Milwaukee’s likely landing spot as the second half wore on, and it became clear they wouldn’t be making the postseason. When the tanking battles finished, the Bucks slotted in with the league’s 10th-worst record. Based on the current system (which appears to be changing later this month), the Bucks have a 3% chance of winning the lottery and landing the first overall pick, a 3.3% chance for second, 3.6% for third, and 4% for fourth. Far more likely is their 65.9% chance of receiving 10th, followed by their 19% chance at 11th. They have about a 1.4% chance of ending up 12th through 14th.
However, those are not actually the Bucks’ odds. New Orleans owned the right to swap selections with Milwaukee, part of their return for sending Jrue Holiday to the 414 in late 2020. They could have chosen to take the most favorable of their pick and the Bucks’, while the Bucks got the least favorable. But they traded that right to Atlanta in a widely panned draft night trade in 2025. So the Hawks actually receive the most favorable of the Bucks’ and Pelicans’ picks (note that Atlanta’s record doesn’t enter into the equation at all here).
This means there is no chance the Bucks actually draft first overall, because if they won the lottery, that would mean they possess the most favorable pick between them and the Pelicans, and they’d have to swap back. Their pick would go to Atlanta. Likewise, the only ways they’d draft second is if the Pelicans won the lottery (6.8% chance) and the lottery balls gave the Bucks two, or if the Bucks won the lottery and the Pelicans were blessed with two. Another way of looking at it: if Milwaukee draws a top-four pick, they’d have to swap out of the top four completely 73.1% of the time.
It’s complicated. But Morgan and I did the math for you, so you know what their shot of eventually landing at any spot actually is, factoring in the swap. Here are the Bucks’ “true” lottery odds:
You can look at this in many ways, but here’s one I think is interesting. Yes, had the Bucks finished with a stinkier record than 10th-worst, their odds of falling out of the top 10 would have been significantly lower. But with the swap, since the Pelicans were worse than them this year, the Bucks have a slightly higher chance of moving up from 10. Compare the two situations:
The Pelicans’ crappiness—and crucially, the Bucks not being as crappy—gives the Bucks a small chance at drafting eighth or ninth. So while they saw a 10.2% drop in their top-four odds due to the swap, they do have a slightly better chance of moving up from 10, even if it’s only by one spot. Without the swap, they’d have a 13.9% chance of rising but with it, they have a 14.7% chance. The difference is that without the swap, the only place they would move up to would be the top four, while now they could also wind up with eight or nine—picks they couldn’t get otherwise.
How the lottery actually works
I discussed last month how end-of-season tiebreakers between teams with identical records benefitted the Bucks slightly. To quickly sum it up: because New Orleans and Dallas finished tied in the standings for the NBA’s seventh-worst record, a coin flip determined who received the seventh-best odds and who was eighth. New Orleans won that toss and with it, a marginal uptick in their chances to receive a top-four pick. It also gives them a shot at seventh and higher instead of eighth and higher. Here are their odds for each selection:
You might be thinking, “why do your odds say the Bucks can’t get seventh, but the Pelicans can? Say the Bucks got three and the Pels got seven—wouldn’t they swap?” Well, the Bucks cannot actually receive the seventh pick because the lotto drawing occurs for the top four selections only (read more on the whole process here). Once that happens, five through 14 use reverse standings order. So if Milwaukee leaped into the top four, surpassing several of the nine teams with worse records than them, those teams would see their selections fall one spot, potentially more if another team also rose significantly. Here are some examples:
- The Bucks’ pick lands at third in the lottery drawing, and the other three teams in the top four all had worse records than the Pelicans. Milwaukee displaces one of the six teams that finished worse than New Orleans, moving New Orleans’ pick to eighth. Milwaukee must swap back to eight, and three goes to Atlanta.
- The Bucks’ pick is third in the lottery drawing, and another team with a better record than the Pelicans (the Mavs, Bulls, Warriors, Clippers, Heat, or Hornets) is also drawn in the top four. Milwaukee and that other team displace one of the six teams worse than New Orleans, moving New Orleans’ pick to ninth. Milwaukee must swap back to nine, and three goes to Atlanta.
- The Bucks’ pick is third in the lottery drawing, and two other teams whose record is better than the Pelicans are also drawn in the top four. Milwaukee and the other two teams displace the six teams worse than New Orleans, moving New Orleans’ pick to 10th. Milwaukee must swap back to 10 (where they’re likeliest to be anyway), and three goes to Atlanta.
Make sense? This would be the same situation if the Bucks drew first, second, or fourth. None of these scenarios is particularly likely, though. In 83.2% of all possible outcomes, the Bucks end up with the 10th or 11th selection, either outright (due to reverse standings order) or because the Pelicans drew one of those picks and the Bucks had to swap back.
The lottery drawing itself takes place behind closed doors right before the results are aired. Bucks vice president of basketball operations Dave Dean will be present for that drawing, as will Journal Sentinel beat writer Jim Owczarski and other media. Then, deputy commissioner Mark Tatum stands at a dais before cameras and a 14-person panel of representatives from all involved teams to reveal the order, taking teams’ cards out of envelopes one by one. Just like in 2014, when Milwaukee won the second pick in the lottery, they’re trotting out Mallory Edens, the daughter of co-owner Wes Edens, on stage.
The bottom line
Here’s a good rule of thumb for when you watch the lottery selections get unveiled: if the Pelicans’ card comes out of an envelope before the Bucks’ does, the spot Tatum is currently announcing is where the Bucks will be drafting. If the Bucks’ card comes out before the Pelicans’ does, it’s the same thing: the spot he’s announcing is where the Bucks will be drafting. Remember, the Hawks don’t become a part of this until we know where the Pelicans and Bucks are, then they take the most favorable of their two picks.
Once the order is set, we’ll post the outcome and set up the ensuing discussions. Who should the Bucks draft, wherever they actually fall? Should they keep the pick or trade it (note: they technically would have to wait until after the draft is finished to complete such a deal, due to the Stepien Rule) for a vet in a win-now move? What would either of those paths mean for Giannis? Would a rival suitor for Giannis dangle their lotto pick in trade talks? The draft is on Tuesday, June 23, so we’ll have over six weeks to debate these and other points.
