NFL Draft week is here, and so is my lone full first-round mock draft of the cycle. With the Chicago Bears not selecting until 25, it’s been a different process this year, figuring out how a muddied crop of first-round talent stacks up against each team’s needs. Due to the ever-evolving NIL landscape in college football, the number of early-round talent declaring for the draft continues to shrink.
With that said, I’ll do my best to project how the first round will go and some thoughts behind each
pick. Without further delay, let’s jump into it!
1. Las Vegas Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
Picks two through 32 might have questions, but thanks to Mendoza’s breakout season for the Hoosiers, one pick is set in stone. For a second straight cycle, the quarterback talent is lacking, but that won’t stop the team with the No. 1 pick from taking who they view as the best of the bunch. Mendoza is an interesting player: He doesn’t possess any elite traits, but he’s very good in multiple areas. Following the signing of veteran Kirk Cousins, the hope is that they’ll be able to insulate him enough that even if he’s forced into action early, he’ll be set up better than the last two No. 1 overall picks were in their situations. Next up: Fixing the offensive line and adding skill position talent.
2. New York Jets DE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
Thanks to Oregon’s Dante Moore going back to school for another season, the Jets might be able to avoid putting another highly drafted quarterback in a bad situation. With head coach Aaron Glenn’s future up in the air, New York would be best served taking the additional capital they’ve collected from trades and putting that into the rest of the roster. Heading into draft night, the debate between Bailey and Arvel Reese is an interesting one. Bailey is the more proven pass rusher, but Reese possesses Micah Parsons-like upside. I’m not sure they can go wrong with either player, but Bailey makes the most sense to me.
3. Dallas Cowboys *Via Arizona Cardinals LB/Edge Arvel Reese (Ohio State)
Trade: Cowboys send picks Nos. 12, 112, and a 2027 1st Rounder to Arizona for No. 3
Although I’m not expecting many trades in the early part of the draft (thanks to the lack of top-end talent, it has been rumored that Jerry Jones is looking to make a splash early on Thursday night. Less than a year after trading away Parsons and trading for Quinnen Williams, Jerry’s inability to stay calm will strike again. This time, they’ll be looking to recreate the magic found when they took Parsons at No. 12 overall five classes ago. Reese doesn’t possess the same bend as most pass rushers in this class, but first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker will get his hands on the most versatile defensive piece in this draft class. While there’s some risk involved, this is the type of swing required to get the Cowboys back into contention in the NFC East for 2026 and beyond.
4. Tennessee Titans RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
If by some chance one of Bailey or Reese falls to the Titans at 4, it’s an easy choice to run to the podium and make the pick. Assuming that doesn’t happen, first-year head coach Robert Saleh’s defensive-minded influence might need to take a back seat for at least the first round. By all accounts, Love is one of the most talented players in this class, and one of the best ways to help out a young quarterback is to have a do-it-all running back out of the backfield. There are multiple ways that Tennessee could go here, but with the lack of value at the top-end of this class, Love makes the most sense, lack of positional value and all.
5. New York Giants LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
There are multiple ways the Giants could go, especially with the added capital they received at No. 10 overall after trading Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals. That said, there’s long been a rumor that John Harbaugh loves both Styles and Caleb Downs. Both players should be in play here, but linebacker is the bigger need, so that’s where they go with their first pick in five selections.
6. Cleveland Browns WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
Find you an NFL team that loves drafting local products as much as the Browns do with Ohio State. At No. 6, the Browns go back to that well and grab the best receiver in the draft. The reality is, Cleveland needs help all over the roster, but they’ll be aided by having another pick coming up in 18 spots. For now, they continue to build around a future quarterback, even if 2026 could be another tough season on the eyes.
7. Washington Commanders WR Jordan Tyson (Arizona State)
In an ideal world, the Browns would take someone like Spencer Fano, leaving Tate to fall right into the Commanders’ laps. This isn’t a perfect world, and I have no idea what I’m doing in this mock, which means we have our first “surprise” pick of the night with Tyson going slightly higher than expected. There’s been plenty of smoke around both the Giants and Rams for Tyson, which makes this pick have a bit of a trickle-down effect, but I’m here for it.
8. New Orleans Saints DE Ruben Bain (Miami)
Despite a report surfacing about Bain’s role in a car accident that left a 22-year-old woman dead, early reports suggest that Bain’s draft stock will be much more related to his length concerns, rather than a tragic accident that happened two years prior. That said, this pass-rushing group is a “pick your flavor” type of class, and with Cameron Jordan’s future in New Orleans in doubt, Bain might offer the best value. Receiver could be another option here, but the pass rush needs more help than any other spot on the roster.
9. Kansas City Chiefs CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)
Between edge rusher, cornerback, and receiver, the Chiefs should have some options at No. 9. While it’s weird to see the Chiefs with such a high first-round pick, it’s also worth remembering they hold another selection later in the round. For now, they address cornerback with Delane, who could quickly become one of the better young cornerbacks in the league—next on the list- Receiver.
10. New York Giants (Via Cincinnati Bengals) S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
Originally, I had the Giants taking a receiver here, but with the Commanders surprising and taking Tyson, New York will go back to the Ohio State well and complete the duo with Downs at 10. This is a great value pick and one that should take the Giants’ defense to a new level. The rest of the draft can focus more on the offensive side of the ball and on getting second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart some more help.
11. Miami Dolphins OT Spencer Fano (Utah)
The Dolphins are in the early stages of a rebuild with a brand-new regime, but they also invested quite a bit in newly signed quarterback Malik Willis. They’d be smart to rebuild the offensive line around him, and that starts with Fano. Despite some length concerns, the Dolphins would be smart to start him at tackle and go from there.
12. Arizona Cardinals *Via Dallas Cowboys OT Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
Similar to the Dolphins, the Cardinals are in the early stages of a needed rebuild, and with no future quarterback on the roster, they should take the smart route and build around one. There are multiple different ways they could go with this pick, but Freeling is an intriguing upside guy with the ceiling of a Top 5-7 left tackle. That’s worth the gamble in this class.
13. Los Angeles Rams (Via Atlanta Falcons) WR Makai Lemon (USC)
Around Christmas time, some folks face the question, “What do you get someone that already has everything?” This is the same question I faced when trying to mock a player this early to the Rams. On paper, their roster is loaded. In a different class, maybe they draft Matthew Stafford’s eventual replacement. Instead, why not give him another weapon, especially with Davante Adams’ contract up in 2027?
14. Baltimore Ravens iOL Vega Ioane (Penn State)
The Ravens have a few different ways they can go, but with value not lining up at other positions of need, taking the best interior offensive lineman in the class makes plenty of sense. The goal is to get quarterback Lamar Jackson under center more often, and what better way to help that than by taking a mauler like Ioane?
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers DE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
Looking at the Bucs’ depth chart, they don’t have many egregious holes, but following a disappointing season where the defense just didn’t live up to the typical Todd Bowles expectations, it’s worth wondering if an edge rusher can round them back into form. They could also go cornerback if McCoy were to drop, but considering the board, Mesidor might make the most sense, even if he’s one of the oldest prospects in this class.
16. New York Jets (Via Indianapolis Colts) WR Omar Cooper (Indiana)
A few years ago, the Jets had a pair of first-round picks and parlayed that into Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner. Situations change quickly in the NFL, and because of that, Gardner went from getting paid to being traded for a pair of first-round picks. With the team in a totally different spot heading into 2026, they’ll look to replicate similar success with Bailey and now Cooper. Even without a long-term answer at quarterback, the offense needs playmakers, and Cooper brings that.
17. Detroit Lions OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
One year after missing the playoffs for the first time in three seasons, the Lions feel like they are at a bit of a crossroads. On the one hand, they still have one of the more talented rosters in the league. On the other hand, plenty of key veterans are aging, including Taylor Decker, who decided to return for another season before quickly asking for his release after a contract stalemate. It appears that Penei Sewell is moving back to his natural position of left tackle, which makes right tackle a need, even with the addition of veteran Larry Borom. I’m not sold Proctor stays at tackle, but this gives the Lions options at both tackle spots.
18. Minnesota Vikings S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
Speaking of crossroads, after years of putting off a much-needed retooling, the Vikings feel like a team that knows it missed out on its quarterback and is trying desperately to rectify that issue heading into the upcoming season. While the depth chart is still in good shape, Minnesota is working from behind after years of reckless draft decisions by its former general manager. Although there are multiple ways the Vikings could go, adding Thieneman to the mix, following Harrison Smith’s expected retirement, is a good start toward upgrading the roster.
19. Carolina Panthers TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
Of all the “surprise” teams in 2025, the Panthers were one of the brightest. Even if their playoff run lasted just one round, there’s enough to be excited about, especially with a strong draft. Adding another pass catcher could make sense, as could an offensive lineman. In the end, Sadiq’s value is just too good to pass up here, and adds yet another element to their passing offense in what feels like a make-or-break year for fourth-year quarterback Bryce Young.
20. Dallas Cowboys (Via Green Bay Packers) LB Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech)
We all know Dallas’ offense will be Top 5-10 each year, but last year showed how far behind the curve their defense was. For a second time in Round 1, the Cowboys add a defender, this time going with one of my favorite players in the draft. Rodriguez is a blast to watch and should instantly upgrade whichever defense he ends up on. With Reese and now Rodriguez in the mix, the Cowboys might have enough to challenge for the NFC East title yet again.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers OT Caleb Lomu (Utah)
With the recent news of starting left tackle Broderick Jones having a setback following his neck injury, there’s got to be some serious consideration made to taking a left tackle-capable player here at 21. Lomu is one of the more polished pass blockers, and the athleticism is evident. The biggest question is whether you can teach him to be more physical.
22. Los Angeles Chargers DT Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)
In an ideal world, the Chargers have one of the top offensive linemen fall to them, and they slide them inside to guard. Proctor makes the most sense for that type of projection, but with him off the board, they turn their attention to the other side of the trenches with McDonald. Although he may never become a full three-down player, the ceiling is there, and this is the type of pick that could be looked at as a steal in a few years.
23. Philadelphia Eagles OT Blake Miller (Clemson)
From a talent perspective, the Eagles are still in a great spot. That said, something felt off for most of last year, and it’s hard not to think that big changes could be coming without a successful season that ends with a few playoff wins. That said, general manager Howie Roseman has always been great about planning for the future. With Lane Johnson getting up there in age, a contingency plan needs to be in place. Miller is a rock-solid player who is as durable as they come. Even without Jeff Stoutland leading the development, this would be a great value pick with eyes toward 2027 and beyond.
24. Cleveland Browns (Via Jacksonville Jaguars) WR K.C. Concepcion (Texas A&M)
Less than 20 picks after landing a key piece for the future along the offensive line, the Browns are back at it, adding more firepower to their offense with Concepcion. While younger players like Tillman have shown promise, Jerry Jeudy’s step back in 2025 should cause enough concern that a receiver should be very much on the table here at No. 24. While he may never become a complete receiver, his work in the slot and explosiveness in the open field should help this offense continue to grow moving forward.
25. Chicago Bears DE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
Faulk is yet another of those players teams fawn over for his physical profile, despite his production not matching. The Bears under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen covet big, long defensive ends who can stop the run. Faulk fits that bill, and at 21 years old, there’s some room for him to grow as a pass rusher. Chicago could go multiple different ways, including cornerback, safety, or offensive tackle, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll pass on Faulk if he falls all the way to 25.
26. Buffalo Bills S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)
It’s hard not to feel like the Bills missed their best chance to get to a Super Bowl last season, but that shouldn’t stop them from continuing to add talent to their roster. While there are multiple avenues they could pursue, especially with an offense-minded head coach in Joe Brady, McNeil-Warren feels like the best player on the board who fits their needs. Receiver and edge rusher will still be needs, but adding the best talent at this spot in the draft, especially without a second-round pick, should be the goal here.
27. San Francisco 49ers OT Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)
Similar to the Eagles at 23, the 49ers must start making contingency plans for the offensive line. Trent Williams has been elite for quite some time, and while I would still expect him to stay in San Francisco for another year, the team needs to start actively looking for his replacement. In the best-case scenario, Iheanachor should sit for most of his rookie season to develop. The 49ers offer him that exact situation, and ultimately, he should be able to develop into a left tackle over time. I’m not sure there’s a better pick for them at this stage of the first round.
28. Arizona Cardinals (Via Houston Texans) QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)
Originally, I had the Texans sticking and picking. With Kayden McDonald on the board and the top end of the tackle class picked over, Houston can slide back a few spots, still take a guard, and pick up some additional capital in between. For the Cardinals, this is a move that I can see them making out of desperation, even if I don’t believe it’s the smart thing to do. This is another down year for anyone needing a QB, but that won’t stop teams from forcing the issue.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (Via Los Angeles Rams) WR Denzel Boston (Washington)
The best thing for the Chiefs following a massively disappointing 2025 campaign is their ability to reload through the early rounds of the draft. 20 selections after replacing Trent McDuffie, they’ll turn their attention back to the offensive side of the ball and get Patrick Mahomes more help. Boston’s biggest concern heading into the pros will be his ability to separate, but that’s not much different than the initial concerns with Rashee Rice coming out of SMU. Just two picks into the draft, the Chiefs already appear to be in much better shape heading into Day 2.
30. Miami Dolphins (Via Denver Broncos) CB Chris Johnson (San Diego State)
For the second time in Round 1, the Dolphins find themselves a pick (or two) behind the Chiefs with a set of similar needs. For their second pick in the opening round, they’ll take a reverse approach to the Chiefs, after adding Lemon at No. 11, and come away with a cornerback at 30. From a traits standpoint, Johnson is up there; the only real question was his level of competition. With Jermod McCoy’s knee being a concern for most teams, he becomes CB2.
31. New England Patriots DE Malachi Lawrence (UCF)
Ideally, the Patriots would find a way to come out of this pick with a receiver, but after six came off the board in the first 29 picks, they’ll switch their focus to another valuable position. Lawrence is an interesting player who might not be a fit for every scheme. That said, Mike Vrabel tends to take the best players and make things work. Lawrence’s ceiling is as high, if not higher than, that of other players at the position taken before him, so the Patriots should feel good about this pick.
32. Seattle Seahawks CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
Originally, I had Jadarian Price in this spot, but with recent reports that McCoy’s knee is a concern for some teams, the rich find a way to get richer. After losing Riq Woolen in free agency and giving Josh Jobe a one-year deal to come back, cornerback could be a sneaky need opposite Devon Witherspoon. McCoy’s long-term health will be the question here, but much like Will Johnson, this is a gamble worth taking.
