I know we’re still a good week and change away from the turn of the month, but I think we need to do a quick check-in on the EFL Championship.
Most clubs only have three or four matches to play and there is a lot that’s still to be played for. So let’s do a quick run-down of the run-in:
Promotion secured:
Coventry (86 pts)
I’m not going to get too much into this one. Coventry have been promoted to the Premier League after a two-decade wait!
Race for automatics:
Ipswich Town (76 Pts, +29 GD)
Ipswich Town
sit second with a game in hand and some favourable matches. It’s clearly theirs to lose at this point.
Remaining matches at Charlton, at West Brom, at Southampton, QPR
Millwall (76 Pts, +11 GD)
This Millwall side is a lot more resilient than in years past and I favour them against Stoke and Leicester. Oxford United could be a tough final game of the season, but I don’t think it’ll matter too much given Ipswich’s ease of schedule.
Remaining matches: at Stoke City, at Leicester City, Oxford United
Southampton (75 Pts, +24 GD)
Southampton are in the best form in the league right now and haven’t lost a game since January. But they’ve also got a really difficult final few games (that doesn’t include their FA Cup clash against Manchester City). Surely their run has to end at some point, right?
Remaining matches: Bristol City, Ipswich Town, at Preston NE
Middlesbrough (73 Pts, +20 GD)
I think they’re just too far away to surpass all three of their rivals. Three points is a lot at this stage and there isn’t enough road left. That said, I think wins against Wednesday and Watford could give them a slightly easier path in the playoffs. Wrexham remain spoilers.
Remaining matches: Sheffield Wednesday, Watford, at Wrexham
Race for the playoffs
Hull City (69 Pts, +4 GD)
A remarkable season for Hull City, who I thought would be battling relegation. They’ve got favourable games against Leicester and Charlton before closing the regular season against an in-form Norwich City.
Remaining matches: at Leicester, at Charlton, Norwich City
Wrexham (67 Pts, +5 GD)
I think they’ve finally lost steam. They have recent defeats to Birmingham and Southampton, plus a draw against West Brom. That’s probably enough to dash their incredible season. It doesn’t get any easier.
Remaining matches: at Oxford United, at Coventry, Boro
Derby (66 Pts, +9 GD)
It’s possible their fate is determined Tuesday with a tough game against Norwich City. Like Wrexham, I have a hard time seeing them leapfrogging Hull for the playoffs unless the Tigers collapse.
Remaining matches: at Norwich, at QPR, Sheffield United
Race for survival
Charlton (50 Pts, -12 GD)
It looks like they’ve done just enough to survive, but it’ll be close. One point should just about secure it, but where will it come from? Swansea City?
Remaining matches: Ipswich Town, Hull City, at Swansea
West Brom (49 Pts, -12 GD)
West Brom found the right form at the right time by picking up 13 points in their last seven matches. If current form holds, they look just about clear for survival.
Remaining matches: Watford, Ipswich Town, Wednesday
Blackburn (49 Pts, -15 GD)
Five points separate Blackburn from the drop. Even with playing an extra game, they might be okay. Maybe. Unless Oxford can pull a great escape.
Remaining matches: Sheffield United, Leicester City
Oxford United (44 Pts, -13 GD)
That’s the big question: Can they? Where will the points come from? They’ll need to pick up at least a win against either Wrexham or Millwall, plus a win against Wednesday.
Remaining matches: Wrexham, Wednesday, at Millwall
Leicester (41 Pts, -11 GD)
They look doomed. It’s remarkable, but Leicester City are getting relegated to League One unless they win their final three games and get a lot of help.
Remaining matches: Hull, Millwall, at Blackburn
Relegated
Sheffield Wednesday (-3 Pts, -57 GD)
The only question here is whether or not Wednesday finish with a positive goal differential.
Fitzie’s track of the day: But Not For Me, by Ahmad Jamal
And now for your links:
BBC: “Spurs lifeline or good step for West Ham – who’s favourite for drop?”
Jack P-B ($$): “Forget about it. Move on. Win. Spurs just need to win”
Alasdair Gold: “Troy Parrott’s incredible season shows why Tottenham should use transfer clause”
