Why I (Usually) Won’t Rank Dbacks Pitchers
If it feels like I’ve been going out of my way to not talk about any of the pitchers in the Diamondbacks farm system, you’d be mostly correct thinking that. I am more comfortable analyzing the various aspects of a position player’s development than I am doing the same with pitchers. Not to mention, I do subscribe to the old adage of ‘There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect’ or TINSTAAP. Aside from pitchers being generally injury prone, there’s a lot that can go wrong with a pitcher’s development in general.
However, the Dbacks have some real issues when it comes to developing pitchers. Their AAA affiliate, the Reno Aces play in a ballpark at 4,498ft (1,373 meters) above sea level, that also is located in an area in downtown Reno, Nevada that has high winds on a nearly day to day basis. Not only does the ball fly further the higher in elevation you go thanks to less air resistance (and in this case aided by the wind if it’s blowing the right direction) but off speed and breaking pitches have significantly less movement on top of that. The Pacific Coast League has two teams in similarly high elevation cities, Albuquerque (5,312 ft/1,619 meters) and Salt Lake City (4,327 ft/1,319 meters), on top of Las Vegas (3,012ft) and El Paso (3,750 ft), which would still have higher elevation than 29/30 MLB teams. That alone would be a challenge for any pitcher’s development, but then you have the fact that their AA affiliate the Amarillo Sod Poodles play in the most hitter friendly ballpark in the hitter friendly Texas League AND their A ball level affiliate, the Visalia Rawhide, also play in the hitter friendly California League. On top of all that, the rookie level Arizona Complex League is yet another a hitter friendly league, thanks to its location in the Phoenix metropolitan area. I can’t speak for the D’Backs two Dominican Summer League affiliates, but that leaves only the Hillsboro Hops in the A+ Level Northwestern League as the lone affiliate with a pitcher friendly league and ballpark. It is hard to confidently say “this is the top pitching prospect” when that same pitcher almost always has their earned run average get very ugly once they get to AA or AAA. A pitcher can look absolutely great one year in this system, than be absolutely horrible the following season. It’s also hard to distinguish what pitching well actually looks like in this farm system.
A great example of all of the above would be Daniel Eagen (Fangraphs, B-Ref pages), the organization’s 2025 MILB pitcher of the year and the highest ranked Dbacks pitching prospect on MLB Pipeline. After putting up a 2.49 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 97 ⅔ innings in Hillsboro, he ran into the buzzsaw after being promoted to Amarillo, putting up a 5.49 ERA, 6.30 FIP, and a 4.21 FIP in his final 19 ⅔ innings pitched in 2025. The results have been much the same in 2026. Although he leads Diamondbacks MILB pitchers with 74 strikeouts in 59 ⅔ IP, he’s also putting up a 5.58 ERA, 5.08 FIP, and a 4.52 xFIP. That is actually a slightly above average season if you go by his 95 ERA- and 91 FIP-, but it sure doesn’t feel like it is. Would I have Eagen as my top Dbacks pitching prospect and Dbacks top 10 overall? Probably not, as I would most likely have somewhere closer to the #16 overall Baseball America ranks him at.
I did actually have a half finished article covering a few of the top pitchers in the farm system going for a few weeks, that never got quite published as a result of either pitcher blowups, injuries, or other various reasons. At one point, a version of this article had Jose Cabrera as a featured pitcher. I just couldn’t find enough worthwhile information or a solid scouting report or video to investigate, so I held off and held off until next thing you know he’s called up. Other pitchers Iv
Three Standout Pitching Prospects
Wellington Aracena RHP
DOB: 12/27/2004| Height/Weight: 6’3″ / 180lbs | Fangraphs | Baseball-Reference
Acquired in the Blaze Alexander trade, Aracena’s raw stuff is some of the best in the system. His arsenal includes a fastball that can reach 100 mph, a cutter in the mid 90s that misses bats and generates weak contact, in addition to a slider that has a whiff rate close to 50%. In 50 IP for Hillsboro in 2026, Aracena has put up a 3.78 ERA 3.69 FIP, 3.94 xFIP. Interestingly, 12 out of his 13 appearances have come as a starter, when I think it was assumed he’d be pitching in relief.
Junior Ciprian
DOB: 06/02/2005 | Height/Weight: 6’3 / 180lbs | Fangraphs | Baseball-Reference
A few years ago, I heard Ciprian described as “the most projectable starter in the Dbacks Farm system”, and in 2026 it’s starting to look like Ciprian is turning into that pitcher he was projected to be. This year in 61.1 IP pitching for A level Visalia, he’s put up a 3.08 ERA though with the caveat of a 4.95 FIP and 5.22 xFIP. Although once again, it’s worth mentioning that in the offense friendly California League that translates to a 56 ERA- and 88 FIP-
Ciprian has a very smooth delivery and clean mechanics; he works exclusively out of the stretch, using a 3/4 arm slot. He currently has a high 90s fastball that is already a plus pitch along with a high 80s wipeout slider. Ciprian lacks a third plus pitch, and if he’s going to succeed as a starter long term, he will need to develop one.
Patrick Forbes
DOB: 7/11/2004 | Height/Weight 6’3 / 220lbs Fangraphs | Baseball-Reference
The Dbacks took Forbes 29th overall in last year’s draft, but he only just now has made his season debut. Between the complex and Visalia Forbes has only pitched 11.1 innings with three earned runs allowed on five hits, but he’s also struck out 18 batters while issuing only one walk and one HBP. That improved control is noteworthy as Forbes struggled with control in his time in the NCAA and likely contributed to him falling to the Dbacks at #29. Forbes has high 90s velocity that has touched 100MPH on occasion, but has usually worked in the mid 90s. I’m actually not too familiar with Forbes’s arsenal of pitches, but I’m sure someone in the comment section can further elaborate on what he’s throwing these days other than the plus fastball and slider.
