It’s been a yoyo season thus far for Everton, one shaped by unexpected success on the road, but a struggle for consistent performances, and results. It has often been difficult to discern a coherent approach to the team’s attacking play, and an underutilization of some younger players has caused a certain disgruntlement amongst sections of the fanbase, but the Blues sit in eighth place in the league table as of late-February, with an outside chance of qualifying for Europe.
That latter point has been
hammered on and off by David Moyes going back to last summer, serving the dual purpose (intended, one would expect) of highlighting the club’s newfound ambition, but inevitably raising expectations to an overly optimistic level (unintended). Loose lips may not necessarily sink any ships in this scenario, but flirting with a jump into continental competition maybe a year ahead of schedule has undoubtedly raised the stakes — not helped by Everton’s disappointing home results.
Moving into the final third of the campaign, the Blues possess a shaky record at their brand new stadium, with just four wins and five losses from 13 league outings, in addition to an FA Cup exit to Sunderland, on penalties. They’ve failed to win any of the last six at Hill Dickinson Stadium, in all competitions, including losing last time out to Bournemouth. On Monday night, they get another opportunity to break out of this home funk, against visitors Manchester United.
Form
If their fans were disgruntled with United’s decline following Alex Ferguson’s retirement, then what they thought about the club ending last term in 15th spot in the table under Ruben Anorim – their worst finish since 1974, when they were relegated from the old First Division – is easy to imagine. No strangers to backing a losing proposition, the Old Trafford hierarchy gave the struggling Portuguese another €250m to spend in the summer. Of the four major signings to arrive, forward Brian Mbeumo (€75m, Brentford) has been an unqualified success, goalkeeper Senne Lammens (€21m, Royal Antwerp) has looked competent, whilst attackers Matheus Cunha (€74.2m, Wolves) and Benjamin Sesko (€76.5m, Leipzig) have kicked on after slow starts.
Heading out the door were some major players for the Red Devils over recent years — many costing huge fees. The club brought in significant money for Alejandro Garnacho (€46.2m, Chelsea), though the €22m Real Betis paid for Antony pales in comparison to the €95m cavalierly squandered on the Brazilian a few years earlier. Both Rasmus Højlund and André Onana departed on loan, three years after commanding fees of €77.8m and €50.2m respectively. Ouch. Another high-profile flop, in Jadon Sancho (€85m), is spending a second campaign away from the club (Aston Villa, loan), as is the home-grown Marcus Rashford (Barcelona), whilst veteran defender Victor Lindelöf departed on a free, also to Villa.
So, a considerable turnover of the squad ahead of the new campaign, but with some areas (most obviously the midfield) oddly neglected. Considering how wedded Anorim is to the 3-4-3 system, this was his chance to shape the team to suit, and in this the club failed. With a full preseason under his belt and without ample preparation time without the “burden” of continental football to consider, Anorim’s 20 league games at the helm this season brought just eight wins against five defeats, resulting in his dismissal early last month. Strangely, the Red Devils had only lost once in the preceding eight (at Villa Park) and twice in 14 (at Old Trafford, in Everton’s bizarre 1-0 victory), but signs of improvement in the 40-year-old’s overall structure were hard to discern. When he was appointed, Anorim was considered to be amongst the hottest young managerial properties in football, but he left United the possessor of a dreadful 38.1% win percentage.
Enter Michael Carrick. Briefly a caretaker at the Mancunians more than five years ago (two wins and a draw in three outings), the ex-West Ham, Spurs and United player spent almost three years in charge of Championship outfit Middlesbrough, before being sacked in June 2025, after falling short of expectations with a tenth-place finish. Since being installed as interim boss at Old Trafford, Carrick is unbeaten in five, and victorious in his opening four matches. Starting off with a 2-0 derby win over Manchester City, United inflicted Arsenal’s first home loss of the campaign, subsequently beating Fulham and Spurs. They arrive at Hill Dickinson off a less than impressive late draw against the Hammers, courtesy of Sesko’s late strike, having climbed to fourth spot in the table.
Team Assessment
Carrick immediately installed a 4-2-3-1 formation, and this is unlikely to change on Monday.
In goal will be Lammens. The 23-year-old has earned favourable comparison with his error-prone predecessor, Onana, but a save percentage of 64.7% ranks only at 17th in the division. At right back, Diogo Dalot has been one of United’s most consistent players in recent seasons, and on the left is the injury-prone veteran Luke Shaw who has uncharacteristically started every league match this term. The centre of defence is occupied by the little and large combination of Lisandro Martínez and Harry Maguire. The former’s return from a serious knee injury has done much to solidify the team’s defence, along with the latter’s restoration into the starting eleven, under Carrick.
In midfield, the new man has restored some balance, pairing Casemiro (who turns 34 on Monday) with Kobbie Mainoo, deploying Bruno Fernandes further forward. The Brazilian has looked rejuvenated in Carrick’s system, with his vast experience complemented by Mainoo’s youthful energy. The 20-year-old’s Old Trafford career had seemed near its end under Anorim, but he has the trust of the new manager, who’s handed him all five of his league starts this term. Released from the defensive responsibilities required of a deeper midfield role, Fernandes has blossomed, with the team captain on six goals and 12 assists in 23 league appearances.
Since Patrick Dorgu’s injury, Mbeumo has been shifted from lone striker to the left wing. He’s effective across the front line and is the visitors’ top scorer, with nine goals, including three in Carrick’s spell in charge. On the right Amad Diallo is a dangerous and agile attacker who’d largely been wasted as a wingback under Anorim. Leading the line is Cunha, who is more of a false nine than a conventional centre forward. Something of a maverick and full of flair, the Brazilian has two goals in his last four outings. Sesko will likely be on the bench again, from where he’s scored twice in the past three games.
Prediction
This is a tough one to evaluate, given that in theory there’s little reason why Everton should not be able to replicate their impressive away results – obtained over the past year or so – on home turf. Does Moyes set up that differently on the road, or is the difference down to the opposition playing less conservatively, so leaving more gaps in transition? In the team’s ten league wins, they’ve averaged 41.5% possession, and in their nine losses, 43.9%. Considering that in the team’s seven draws, they’ve commanded a 47.7% share, then there’s a slight suggestion that the Toffees do better with less of the ball, but it’s hardly conclusive evidence.
If the problem is down to the long-standing issue with the lack of attacking support that the fullbacks provide, or that the midfield may now lack balance with Idrissa Gueye in it, then it’s hard to imagine this changing on Monday night. There’s a slight hope that we’ll see someone more progressive than the suspended Jake O’Brien at right back, in Nathan Patterson, but given Moyes’ remarks about Seamus Coleman being available, I think this scenario is the more likely one. I can’t see James Garner being shifted from midfield, where he’s really kicked on this term.
Unfortunately, it’s certain that Gueye will again start, and it’s to be hoped that his laboured efforts since returning from AFCON have been more down to fatigue – and being overplayed – than his legs going, though I fear the latter reason is more probable and possibly overdue. Regardless of Gana’s individual performance levels, Garner looks less impactful when he lines up alongside the 36-year-old. Moyes has to find a solution. Other than who replaces JOB, only Tyrique George’s selection is in any doubt, and I can’t help feeling that caution will prevail and that we’ll again see Harrison Armstrong deployed out of position, on the wing.
When considering just where United are at currently, it’s worth examining Carrick’s short tenure in the dugout, although the first two games against City and Arsenal lack much in the way of relevance, when considering how Everton will fare on Monday. In beating Fulham and drawing with West Ham, they needed last-gasp goals from Sesko, whereas the Spurs game was level prior to Cristian Romero’s 30th minute red card. United created very little last time out, being held to an xG of 0.57 by a poor Hammers side, despite enjoying the lion’s share of possession (65%). Whilst they’ve climbed into the Champions League qualification spots over the past month or so and are undoubtedly an improved, apparently happier team, they aren’t some juggernaut who’ve been blowing opponents away.
One obvious weakness, in a campaign defined by an increased focus on set-pieces, is the lack of height possessed by the visitors. Only Maguire – who remains an impeccable aerial defender – could be called imposing, although Dalot is effective, but given Everton’s height advantage, they could cause United some problems here. Otherwise, it is to be hoped that some work on attacking patterns has been carried out at Finch Farm, as the hosts cannot rely on forcing turnovers in the opposition half as a route to goal. I feel that, assuming the Blues midfield shape is improved, and that width can be found from fielding an actual right back, or at least one more offensively capable than JOB, that they can get a result here, even if a win may elude them once more.
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Manchester United
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, sofascore.com and fbref.com
