Well, here’s to a quiet, calm Friday evening game without any journalistic Molotov cocktails being lobbed into the team dressing-room tonight! I will, however, continue to be the chilled ice-bath in terms of expectations, and today point out that Fangraphs currently gives the D-backs just a 2.5 percent change of making the playoffs. That’s one in forty if you prefer, and is actually lower than the Giants, whom we overtook in the standings with yesterday’s victory in Denver. They are at 3.2%. It’s
mostly because the projection is for Arizona to go only 19-21 the rest of the way.
In turn, the strength of schedule factors into that, because the Rockies are the only team whose opponents have a higher average win percentage than Arizona’s .514. With the D-backs’ current losing record, and a win percentage still sitting at .492… Yeah, you can see why we’re expected to be mediocre the rest of the way. That’s why it is almost essential to rack up wins the rest of this series. Right now, Fangraphs says the Diamondbacks would need to reach 87 wins to make the third playoff spot. That would mean going 27-13. It’s doable: from July 11 through August 28 last year, Arizona went 30-10. But it required a .850 OPS over that period.
I do suspect we’ll end the series closing the gap. Of the teams ahead of us, the Cardinals, Mets, Reds and Dodgers all face teams with better records than them this weekend, in the Yankees, Mariners, Brewers and Padres respectively. Though that quartet do all have home-field advantage. The Cubs are also at home, and face the weaker Pirates, but lost today’s game 3-2, so that’s helpful. I still have low expectations, but after the deadline, the mere possibility of scoreboard watching is an unexpected pleasure. Winning will keep that going, just a little longer.
Oh, and Jody Jackson posted this gorgeous picture of the player’s bats on Facebook. I’m sure she won’t mind me dropping it in here. Trust Jake McCarthy to have the South Park bat! 😀
