BOISE STATE BRONCOS VS. FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS
Location: Boise, Idaho (Albertsons Stadium)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 1st at 1:30 p.m. (Mountain Time)
Television: FS1
Streaming: Fox Sports App
Radio: KBOI
670 AM/KBOI 93.1 FM (Bronco Radio Network)
Head-to-Head: Boise State is 17-9 all-time against Fresno State, but the Bulldogs have been much more feisty as of late. In their last eight meetings, the two programs have split, 4-4, and Fresno State has won the previous two contests.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Boise State: 6-2 (4-0 in MW), Fresno State: 5-3 (2-2 in MW)
Mountain West vs. Mountain West
BSU: Head Coach Spencer Danielson (2nd Full Year, 21-5 Overall Record)
FSU: Head Coach Matt Entz (1st Full Year at Fresno State, 65-14 Career Record)
Last Week
BSU: Beat Nevada 24-3 in Reno. No single player had a dynamite performance against the Wolf Pack, but the Broncos were able to force five turnovers. QB Maddux Madsen recorded his second game of 2025 in which he failed to complete a passing touchdown, joining his abysmal outing against Notre Dame.
FSU: Lost to San Diego State at home, 23-0. This was the first start for sophomore QB Carson Conklin as he replaced E.J. Warner. It wasn’t a good day for him, passing for 182 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions on a 47.6% completion rate. The running game was silent as well, with the team combining for 45 yards on 23 carries.
What Allows Boise State to Win Saturday?
Make life a living nightmare for former FCS QB, Carson Conklin.
After the pitiful showing on offense last week in a high-stakes Mountain West affair, one would have thought that head coach Matt Entz might revert to their original starter, E.J. Warner. However, Entz stood by Conklin and announced that he would start again this week. The transfer from Sacramento State started for the Hornets all of last season and threw for 2,876 yards with a 28-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
He isn’t some no-name, inexperienced walk-on off the street.
And to give the guy some credit, he was playing not only the best defense in the Mountain West in his first start as a Bulldog, but one of the best defenses in the nation.
The Aztecs are a heck of a first test.
It would shock me if Conklin played just as poorly this week.
But, Boise State can certainly look at what San Diego State did so well and do its best Aztec impression.
The Broncos have had a resurgent secondary since the loss to Notre Dame nearly a month ago, allowing 115 passing yards to New Mexico’s Jack Layne, 215 yards to UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea, and just 145 yards to Nevada’s Carter Jones.
Jeremiah Earby and A’Marion McCoy have been en fuego during that stretch, including a two-interception masterclass by Earby against the Wolf Pack last week. And not to be outdone, McCoy has now recorded one interception in four of Boise State’s last five games.
If they can find a way to pressure Conklin via the efforts of sack-leader Braxton Fely (5.0 sacks) and athletic EDGE rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan (3.0 sacks), this game could turn into a blowout quickly with a sold-out crowd on hand.
What Allows Fresno State to Win Saturday?
Running backs Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke must lead the charge.
Plain and simple, when Fresno State has won and been in rhythm, it’s been largely due to these two.
In their five wins, the pairing of Donelson and Luke has combined on average for 136.6 yards on the ground.
In their three losses, that number drops significantly to 50.6 yards per game.
With the lack of faith in Conklin’s play (as of now), the run game is what’s going to drive the Bulldogs into a competitive ballgame and any realistic chances of a win.
Now, if Conklin can pull himself up by his bootstraps, then this is a whole different discussion. That would lead to a trio of perimeter targets—WR Josiah Freeman, WR Ezekiel Avit, and TE Richie Anderson III—becoming much more involved, forcing Boise State to spread its defense.
Even a mediocre performance from the quarterback position would allow the Bulldogs to hang around late in the 3rd quarter. If they can stay within striking distance, then you let the dynamics of the rivalry game play out.
But the game can’t be blown wide open in the first 15 minutes.
Who Pulls Out The Win?
On The Blue.
A quarterback on the road attempting to bounce back after an ugly first start.
Another sold-out Albertsons Stadium crowd in an afternoon time slot.
Boise State rolls to a 4th consecutive win and improves to 7-2 before a bye week that will give them time to prepare for the Mountain West game of the year against San Diego State.
Petterson’s Prediction: Boise State to Win Outright, Boise State to Cover, and Take the Under.
FanDuel Odds: BSU -17.5, Total of 50.5
Boise State Broncos 31 – Fresno State Bulldogs 10
Let us at the Mountain West Connection know your prediction for The Battle of the Milk Can on The Blue in the comments!
