The Hawkeyes had a brutal outing a week ago in Ames as they fell to the Cyclones 16-13. It’s the first time since 2011-2012 Iowa State has won back-to-back games in the Cy-Hawk series and the loss does not bode well for Iowa’s 2025 season.
But alas, the Hawkeyes must move on and they are back in action on Saturday closing out their non-conference schedule with the likes of UMass. The Minutemen come to Kinnick at 0-2 and dealing with a slew of injuries. Iowa opened as 34.5-point favorites over the Minutemen according
to FanDuel Sportsbook, with an over/under set at 44.5 total points. The line has moved around some but has settled in late this week right on that 34.5 points in favor of the Hawkeyes with the over/under dropping a touch to 43.5. That gives us an implied final score of Iowa 39, UMass 4.5.
Here at The Pants, we are fully back on board being the pessimists after last week’s loss. Collectively, we’re calling for Iowa to win, but not cover the big spread. Our average prediction is Iowa 34, UMass 4. That puts us pretty firmly on the under of 43.5 total points and taking UMass with the spread.
As a reminder, we’re not exactly lighting the world on fire here. Year-to-date, we’ve been on the wrong side of the spread half the time and on the wrong side of the over/under half the time so sitting at 2-2 overall. Perhaps this will be the week we get into the black.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Iowa’s get-right game against UMass.
Individual Staff Predictions
JPinIC
It’s genuinely hard to even think about this matchup. It’s a complete throwaway of a game where we won’t learn anything new and if history is any indication, the team won’t either. While most teams around the country would use a matchup like this to open things up, get a rhythm and improve on the things that have been a struggle, Kirk Ferentz has shown time and again he would rather turtle up and use this matchup against an abysmal opponent to show dominance in the run game and then show mercy.
He’ll undoubtedly keep this a 70%+ run game and will absolutely keep Mark Gronowski in until the final series or two to avoid any sort of QB controversy – not that you could actually have one without throwing the ball downfield at all. Even still, this UMass team is brutal and the injuries they’re facing at equally so. I expect Xavier Williams to top 100 yards rushing once again with a combination of Jaz Patterson, Terrel Washington JR and Nathan McNeil accounting for another 150 yards on the ground. I’ll say the defense creates at least two turnovers and we get a non-offensive touchdown of some sort. Gronowski has a better day, but in the least satisfying way ever, finishing something like 10 of 14 passing with a yards per attempt hovering around 5. He finds Wetjen for a score from inside the five and runs for 35+ yards and another score.
Iowa 34, UMass 6
Greg Hollingsworth
Much like JP writes above, I have little confidence that we’ll see what we want to see from the offense against an absolutely decimated UMass team (i.e. 300+ yards passing, 200+ on the ground, 50+ points), primarily because we all know that’s not Kirk’s style. I can appreciate not wanting to punch down against a supremely overmatched opponent, I can even respect it, but when you’re the owner of the 135th ranked (out of 136) passing offense in the country, sometimes you need to put your own needs against the needs of an opponent. It is worth noting here that, after 2 losses – including a loss to FCS Bryant (one of the worst teams in the FCS) – UMass’s passing attack ranks, ahem, 72nd. They’re also ranked above Iowa in Total Offense (ypp of 5.1 – 92nd) to Iowa’s 4.3 (126).
There is zero doubt that Iowa will win this game, I won’t even be surprised if we see a shutout (given that the Minutemen are missing almost 10 starters and were ranked the worst team in FBS even before they got hurt), but I don’t think we’re going to feel any better about this team Saturday evening then we do right now.
Iowa 38, UMass 3
GingerHawk
There’s nothing much I can add that JP and Greg haven’t touched on as far as statistics and matchups go. UMass, God bless them, are way outmatched in this game and there is no reason for Iowa not to cruise comfortably, possibly shut them out as Greg touched on. It’s strange to go into a game in which you are 99.999% sure about winning and equally sure that you’ll be disappointed by it all the same. We know leaning on a lesser team is not KF’s brand, and good for him for being honorable, but at this point just say “to hell with it” and go all out. Even if the answers we get will be a bit skewed because of the opponent, show us that this offense has something to it. Because chances are if you can’t do it against the Minutemen you’re not going to be able to do it against Wisconsin, Michigan State, or Rutgers, let alone Penn State and Oregon.
I think they will show flashes, but a defensive or special teams score and short fields will help make it look more lopsided than it feels in real time.
Iowa 37, UMass 7
Matt Reisener
This week’s game is significant for two reasons. First, it is almost certain to be Kirk Ferentz’s Big Ten record 206th win, a hard-earned record which will likely stand for several decades. Second, this game gives Iowa’s offense one last chance to find its rhythm before conference play starts. Iowa’s passing game has been monumentally disappointing through the first two games, but the Minutemen are one of the worst pass defenses in the FBS and have surrendered 594 yards and nine touchdowns through the air. If Mark Gronowski and Iowa’s wide receivers can’t find success against this defense, it may be time for Iowa’s coaching staff to make some lineup changes.
Expect the Hawkeye defense to suffocate a UMass offense that may be down its starting quarterback after an embarrassing Week II loss to the FCS Bryant Bulldogs. And who knows, maybe the Hawkeye offense will honor its coach by putting forward a complete performance for once!
Iowa 37, UMass 3
mattcabel
Don’t think there’s going to be much to contest here, but rather how Iowa’s offense looks against a really, really bad opponent. We need to throw the ball a ton to get reps in. As Matt said above, they are bad at pass defense. Even so, will we throw the ball a lot? Probably not! I’d love to see a major rout but that just won’t happen. Hawks will go up early and then stall the second half. Yawn.
Iowa 24, UMass 3
Consensus: Iowa 34, UMass 4
So there you have it – the Hawkeyes get right, even if it doesn’t feel right. Who knows what that means for next week at Rutgers or the rest of the season, but it would take a minor miracle for Saturday’s matchup to be close in Kinnick.
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions!
