The Reds got off to a good start this year and held first place in the NL Central for the last two weeks of April. But they just got swept by the Pirates and were outscored 27-8 in the three-game series. Their expected W/L record of 15-19 is five games below their actual record of 20-14.
For more on the Reds, here’s Wick Terrell, manager of our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.
The good news — great news, in the context of the last three decades — is that the Cincinnati Reds enter Monday’s series opener
against the Chicago Cubs at 20-14 on the season. A blink ago they were 20-11, a team with more wins through the end of April than either the 1975 or 1976 clubs that took home World Series trophies.
They’ve got Elly De La Cruz, who looks electric again now that he’s eschewed the thigh injury that sapped him in the second half of 2025. They’ve also got Sal Stewart, who has looked the part of an offensive goliath (and versatile infielder) who’ll be a key cog for years. They’ve also got Chase Burns looking like an absolute star, even though he won’t feature in this series in Wrigley.
It’s been a fun ride so far in 2026, even if the underlying numbers are terrifying.
Cincinnati has been without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo all season, and Brandon Williamson’s shoulder issues sent him to the IL late last week. So, you’ll see Chase Petty called up to start on Monday, something that was an utterly abysmal experience in his rookie year in 2025. Before even getting to Petty, the Reds entered Sunday’s game with a 5.08 xERA from their rotation, a mark that was the 6th worst in all of baseball.
They’ve leaned incredibly hard on their bullpen so far, a group who entered Sunday’s series finale with an abysmal 5.19 xERA – a mark that’s the single worst in the game. That’s fueled by a 5.95 BB/9 (also worst), yet somehow they’ve managed to thread enough needles to post a 4.10 ERA from the unit that screams regression and screams it loudly.
This all comes from a club who still owns just a 90 wRC+ from their offense on the season, ranking 25th of the 30 MLB clubs. Prior to play on Sunday, that was good for a -22 run differential that was worse than the Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox, among others. In other words, were they not simply immaculate in 1-run games so far this season, their overall record would – and perhaps should – look completely inverted.
The hitting has gotten a little better by the week, though there’s still a ton that needs work. I don’t think their bullpen is quite as bad as it should have been, but it’s lacking a truly dominant piece. Their rotation, meanwhile, will get better with Lodolo back Friday and Greene at some point in July, but it still looks like a shell of its 2025 self. So, the ride in 2026 has been fun overall, but it really seems as if the Reds have been flooring it with no doors or seatbelts so far, and it’s fair to wonder just how long that’ll end up paying off.
Fun facts
Wow. Here it is, after only 34 games of the season, and already the Cubs are playing the division-rival Reds for the first time. (Apologies for the sarcasm.)
They will be just the second Central Division opponent the Cubs have played so far, after the Pirates, for three games. They have played 13 games vs. teams in the NL East, nine vs. the NL West and three each vs. the AL East, Central and West. The Cubs will not play the Brewers until their 48th game, at home on May 18, and will not play the Cardinals until their 58th, at St. Louis, on May 29.
…..
The Cubs and Reds have played 2,429 games since Cincinnati joined the National League in 1890, eight years after it was created as a charter member of the American Association. The Cubs lead the rivalry, 1,223 wins to 1,194, with 12 ties.
Last year, the Reds won eight of 13 games but the teams split six at Wrigley Field. The Cubs’ last sweep of the visiting Reds was in 2023, when they won four games. This is the fifth series on the North Side since then.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Monday: Edward Cabrera, RHP (3-0, 3.06 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 3.71 FIP) vs. Chase Petty, RHP (2026 MLB debut)
Tuesday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (2-1, 4.41 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 5.95 FIP) vs. Andrew Abbott, LHP (1-2, 5.97 ERA, 1.673 WHIP, 4.94 FIP)
Wednesday: Colin Rea, RHP (4-1, 4.41 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 3.42 FIP) vs. Brady Singer, RHP (2-2, 5.57 ERA, 1.732 WHIP, 5.75 FIP)
Thursday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (3-2, 2.40 ERA, 0.847 WHIP, 2.74 FIP) vs. Rhett Lowder, RHP (3-2, 5.09 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, 3.23 FIP)
Times & TV channels
Monday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network — note, this game time was moved up from 6:40 p.m. CT due to a forecast of storms later in the evening
Tuesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Wednesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Thursday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Reds market territories)
Prediction
The Cubs are a hot team right now, as you know, on a 15-3 run with 11 straight wins at Wrigley Field. As noted above, the Reds just got swept by the Pirates. The pitching matchups seem mostly favorable to the Cubs.
So I’ll be disappointed if the Cubs don’t take at least three of four.
Up next
The Cubs head to Arlington for a three-game series against the Texas Rangers beginning Friday evening.
