Jake Paul is one of the most carefully-managed athletes in combat sports.
“El Gallo” is the permanent A-Side and enjoys all the benefits that come with stardom. He gets to pick and choose his matchups, the locations, the purse percentages and all the other little details. By entering combat sports as a massive public figure, Paul and his team hold all the cards and can stack the deck appropriately in his favor.
Paul started his career against fellow YouTubers and won by virtue of being an athlete who
took it seriously. Then, it was an NBA player, which is hardly a step up from YouTuber in terms of combat ability. Before long, Paul was in the ring with smaller, older mixed martial arts (MMA) fighters who came from grappling backgrounds, then striking backgrounds, then slowly they weren’t quite as old, but were still smaller or just out-right worse at boxing.
His career matchups have been a series of little steps forward or sideways. Paul overextended himself in the sole loss of his career, a split-decision defeat to half boxer/half social media star, Tommy Fury, a young man of similar size with a longer training background. Paul’s inexperience showed, and he opted to fix that flaw by returning to beating up MMA fighters and taking a side quest against some club boxers in small events.
The payoff of Paul’s careful opponent selection was the Mike Tyson spectacle. It was awful viewing, sure, but it was the most-streamed sporting event … ever. 65 million people tuned in to a Jake Paul fight, and he cashed a $40,000,000 check as a result. If you stopped the experiment right there, Paul’s career would stand as an undeniable masterclass in building a product and cashing out.
It’s hard to walk away from that kind of money and exposure though. Netflix and MVP teamed up once more and went small rather than old for the next matchup, choosing the undefeated Gervonta Davis as Paul’s next opponent. It was an interesting choice: how would Paul handle his first world-class boxer with the significant advantage of 50+ pounds on his side? Paul was no longer the favorite, but that’s the price of creating intrigue, and there’s no shame in losing to “Tank.”
If he won? That’s a bonafide world champion in his prime on his resume, size difference be damned. And there was at least some chance that Paul could win, use his size advantage to upset the disillusioned champion.
Unfortunately, Davis has serious issues with women. “Tank” couldn’t keep his demons under wraps, and abusing women doesn’t fly well alongside Paul’s side project of promoting female boxing. It was an unacceptable and embarrassing level of hypocrisy, leaving Team Paul with no choice but to axe Davis.
The problem for Paul is that he still needs to box. Millions of dollars have been invested into his deal with Netflix. He’s not the sole promoter anymore. He has to put on a show, but there are a limited number of high-profile opponents who can serve as his dancer partner.
MVP sent out multiple offers, and Anthony Joshua surely was not the first choice. Ryan Garcia, for example, would have been far preferable as a similar challenge to Davis: a smaller but elite boxing champion. He’s not undefeated, but Garcia is crazy and famous and would have drawn a crowd.
The Fury rematch would have been another great choice, a high-profile foe with an established narrative … but Fury can’t enter the United States! In years past, perhaps Paul pulls the plug on Miami and travels overseas to safeguard his career, but that’s apparently no longer an option.
After Fury, the options grew much scarier. Francis Ngannou likely mauls Paul as well, but at least he’s an older MMA fighter with some knee injuries — yet even “The Predator” said “No” for confusing reasons nobody understands, Instead, Paul is fighting Joshua, the former Heavyweight champion who took Ngannou’s lunch money with absolute ease (watch that here).
When Paul called out Joshua one year ago, we all laughed at the absurdity. It was clear posturing, headline fodder that was never intended to happen. Yet now it’s happening, and the obvious outcome is Paul’s teeth getting fed down his throat. If Joshua tries at all to win this fight, it should be a vicious embarrassment, the kind that could very well end the Paul experiment on a much darker note.
In itself, getting knocked out by Joshua isn’t embarrassing. He’s an Olympic gold medalist and one of the best of his era. It’s a lot different to feel that reality in person, to be obliterated by a level of speed and power heretofore unfelt. Getting knocked out badly can destabilize the careers of true, hardened professionals, so it could certainly reshape Paul’s relationship with boxing.
With the Joshua matchup, Paul will feel the consequences of his career growth. He’s lost control of the careful career management that brought him to this point. In this way, he’s suddenly like most other combat sports athletes. Time and time again, we wonder why athletes refuse to walk away on top or something close to it. Look at all the former champions who have to lose five straight before finally calling it quits — there can be no graceful exits.
Paul could have left with his health intact and bank accounts fat after Tyson. Instead, he’s staring down the barrel of a knockout loss that wasn’t supposed to happen and could send everything spiraling.
