It probably goes without saying that our collective enjoyment of the Braves would be higher the last few seasons if we didn’t have so many “the [player name] saga,” but, unfortunately, we do. The Reynaldo Lopez saga is definitely a saga, at that, and it’s one that’s had a number of developments lately, what with the low velocity in his final Spring Training start, the amusing-but-wait-you-were-serious? mechanics messaging afterwards, and then the regained velocity once the regular season started.
But, his two starts themselves have been… part of the Reynaldo Lopez saga, basically. The results have been good in that the team has won both starts, but:
- First start: 41/141/140 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-); 4.49 xERA
- Second start: 49/137/127, xERA TBD
Remember, when Lopez was great in 2024, he had a 48/74/85 line: legitimately good but with a hilarious gap between his ERA and everything else. It also wasn’t a contact management thing, and his xERA was actually much higher in 2024 than his FIP and xFIP. There’s a discussion to be had about how the way in which Lopez pitches means he can actually outperform his FIP and xFIP and I guess his xERA too, but even if he can, it’s not gonna be to the tune of “awful, unplayable FIP and xFIP but teeny-tiny ERA.”
His command has been a mess, with his fastball generally having a preferred location (armside and up) but missing often enough all the way across the plate without maintaining its verticality that it almost looks like it’s deliberate (but I’m not sure I’d go there yet). The slider has good shape but is currently landing such that batters could just lay off of it and walk, though that hasn’t happened yet.
But, you could argue, I guess, that this is all an artifact of batters swinging early in the count and making ineffectual contact, often in the air. That’s one way to get a high xFIP with low runs charged to your tally, though it doesn’t tend to work for the long haul.
Anyway, I’ll stop babbling. What do you think of Lopez now, compared to before the season began?
