Ten days ago, the Royals were just one game back of the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot. Fans circled this series on their calendar, thinking that if the Royals could just stay within striking distance, they could surge ahead this week.
But since then, the teams have gone in opposite directions. The Royals dropped six of eight while the Mariners are riding a nine-game win streak to take the division lead.
Seattle Mariners (82-68) vs. Kansas City Royals (75-75) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City,
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Mariners: 4.70 runs scored/game (10th in MLB), 4.36 runs allowed/game (18th)
Royals: 3.85 runs scored/game (28th), 3.93 runs allowed/game (4th)
Cal Raleigh has cooled off in the second half, hitting .218/.328/.480 since the All-Star break. He has the highest flyball rate in baseball, but oddly, he has the seventh-highest soft-hit rate. Jorge Polanco is hitting .369/.409/.750 with six home runs in his last 24 games. Dominic Canzone is hitting .308/.380/.486 on the road this year. Julio Rodríguez is a career .485 hitter (.16-for-33) with four doubles and a home run at Kauffman Stadium. Randy Arozarena has three home runs in 20 plate appearances in his career against Michael Wacha.
Eugenio Suárez has struggled since joining the Mariners, hitting .170/.247/.386, although with nine home runs in 41 games. Josh Naylor is 0-for-13 in his career against Michael Lorenzen. Mitch Garver is hitting just .193/.262/.358 since the start of July.
The Mariners are fourth in the league in steals with an 81 percent success rate. Despite standing at 235 pounds, Naylor has a career-high 27 stolen bases, and has only been caught twice. Raleigh has caught 21 percent of base-stealing attempts. The Mariners are a very poor team defensively, according to Outs Above Average with Rodríguez playing well, but Arozarena and J.P. Crawford faring poorly in the metric.
The Royals are set to get Michael Wacha and Cole Ragans off the Injured List for this series. Thursday’s starter is yet to be announced, but Michael Lorenzen would be due up.
Logan Gilbert has the highest strikeout rate in baseball for anyone with at least 100 innings. He gave up one run but lasted just 4.2 innings in a no-decision on July 2 against the Royals. He has given up six runs in 22.2 innings over his last four starts. The 28-year-old has a 5.29 ERA on the road compared to 2.13 at home. Salvador Perez has homered off him twice in his career, going 6-for-16 (.375) in their matchups.
Bryce Miller missed two months with an elbow injury and has yielded 16 runs in 27 innings in five starts since his return. He has given up ten runs in nine innings in his career against Kansas City, with Royals hitters batting .324/.390/.459 against him. Miller has a 30 percent whiff rate on his splitter, with opponents hitting .206 against it, but they’ve hammered his slider, batting .417 against that pitch.
Luis Castillo has a 6.52 ERA over his last six starts and is posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Lefties are hitting .288/.361/.487 against him. He has a 5.09 ERA on the road this year and a 5.53 ERA in five career starts at Kauffman Stadium. Bobby Witt Jr. is just 1-for-13 in his career against Castillo.
The Seattle bullpen has a 3.65 ERA, seventh-lowest in baseball, with the seventh-lowest walk rate. Andrés Muñoz features a 98.5 mph fastball, but it’s his slider that he throws 50 percent of the time with opponents batting just .103 against it. He has the second-lowest ERA among all relievers, and is third in saves, converting 35-of-42 opportunities Former Royals reliever Gabe Speier is tied for the ninth-most appearances in baseball with 69, and he has the sixth-lowest walk rate among relievers. Carlos Vargas has a 56 percent groundball rate, 11th-highest in baseball. Luke Jackson, who was let go by the Rangers, has not given up a run in seven innings with the Mariners.
The Royals are still technically alive for the post-season, but realistically, this series has lost all its meaning for them. They will still try to finish strong with a winning record, but it is disappointing we were deprived of a playoff atmosphere this week.
