Anyone claiming to know what Bilal Coulibaly will be is either lying or delusional. Through three NBA seasons, one number stands out: 68. That’s how many games he’s missed — 27.6% of Wizards games since they traded up to draft him seventh overall in the 2023 NBA Draft.
A few other numbers jump off the screen — 49.7% on two-point field goal attempts, 31.3% on threes, and 73.4% from the free throw line. All solidly below average.
But that’s topline stuff and not necessarily the whole story. That he’s
missed 68 games is fact. How many he would have missed if the team hadn’t been trying to lose is an open question. My guess is it would have been a lot less, but it’s unprovable.
During his short career, Coulibaly has gained a reputation as a good defender, though it’s worth mention the team has been no better at slowing opposing offenses when he’s been on the floor. The “young players sometimes take some time” for their on/off stats to start matching up with their box score numbers factor may apply, as does the context that he’s had to share the floor with truly horrendous defensive teammates. That said, he made some strides towards being more disruptive this season — see upticks in his per possession steals and blocks. Perhaps positive signals for the future.
To call his offensive game a “project” would be an insult to projects. He’s shot poorly, struggled to finish in traffic, and been hampered by iffy ball handling skills. And, he also improved pretty significantly this season.
For example, over his first 20 games this season, Coulibaly’s offensive rating (points produced per 100 individual possessions) was 99. League average this season was above 115. Over his final 36 games played, his offensive rating was 111. Still a bit below average but also significant improvement.
The eye test was similarly inconclusive. I noted across multiple games later in the season that Coulibaly was more assertive offensively, that he was driving more frequently, and that opponents were having difficulty staying in front of him when decided to attack. He also had more than a few…interesting…attempts to score inside. Sometimes he used his vertical leap and long arms to go over defenders, others he did that weird slow-down Euro-step thing and blew the shot, and still others he threw up wild shots that had no chance (a few of which actually dropped).
Over his final 17 games, he shot 38.1% from three-point range, which might mean something. It was only 76 total attempts though, so there’s nothing conclusive. It might mean his shooting truly improved. It might also mean he was on something of a heater.
Coulibaly’s overall trend is clear from the PPA Performance EKG below. Like teammate Kyshawn George, he started great and cratered. But then Coulibaly steadily improved the rest of the way. Over his first 20 games, Coulibaly’s PPA was 72 (in PPA, average is 100 and higher is better). Over his last 20: 125.
Now, 125 isn’t great. It’s solidly above average, though. He also had multiple above-average 10-game stints, including two with a PPA of 150 or better. A significant factor in both stretches were outlandishly good games (above 400 PPA scores), so apply the appropriate measure of salt.
On the other hand, Coulibaly’s rolling season PPA hit a replacement level 47 (close enough — replacement level in PPA is 45) after his 13th game. He notched a 118 the rest of the way. Again, not great but not bad either.
If it feels like I’m veering from one extreme to the other here, it’s because I am. And that’s because it’s what the data is saying. In my Consistency Index, Coulibaly scored an astronomical 123 this season. A lower score means more consistency.
His great and awful games came in near equal measure. He had 11 200+ PPA games (20%) and 10 that scored in the negative. He had 19 games with a 150 or better, and 15 with a 45 or lower.
I was very much in favor of drafting Coulibaly before the Wizards selected him. I liked the move to get him on draft day. Zach Lowe’s Nerf gun to my head, I’d guess he’s going to be pretty good. But it’s mostly a guess and a hunch. His overall production has improved each season…and there’s enough really bad games to give me doubts.
He’s eligible for an extension this summer, which the Wizards would be certifiably nuts to give him, unless it’s a deal like the one Deni Avdija signed. Which Coulibaly would be certifiably nuts to sign. A big year next season could be lucrative for him.
At minimum, I think Coulibaly can be a defensive specialist. If the shooting comes around, he could be a highly valuable three-and-D type. If he develops an overall offensive package, he could be a star. It’s fascinating how little is sure with him after three NBA seasons.
