The Buffalo Bills’ Week 14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals wasn’t without drama, After getting off to a slow start and falling into a 28-18 hole early in the fourth quarter, it meant that quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills would have to find the same sort of magic required of their Week 1 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
In scoring 21 unanswered points with under nine minutes to play in regulation, Buffalo once again showed an AFC North foe that their brand of toughness and fortitude wasn’t exclusive.
After Allen scored on a 40-yard scramble to pull the Bills to within 3 and trailing 28-25, Buffalo still needed to find quite a bit of luck to stop quarterback Joe Burrow and a passing attack capable of scoring at will.
Enter cornerback Christian Benford, who had already played a masterful game in pass defense while covering wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Benford had completely shut down Chase, allowing him to see just two targets, zero catches, and one massive pick-six in 16 snaps. For as compelling a story line as that is, it proved to be just the beginning of Benford’s unforgettable day.
Benford’s 63-yard pick-six that played perhaps the most pivotal role for the Bills against the Bengals in terms of win probability. Per NextGenStats, as shared below by Henry McKenna, Buffalo’s win probability experienced a near-complete flip from 16.2% before Benford’s pick-six touchdown, to 77.0% following the score.
That play now stands as the single biggest win probability swing (+60.8 percentage points) on a play outside of the last two minutes in the NGS era (since 2016), per NextGenStats.
Following Benford’s game-changing play against Burrow and the Bengals, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips caused a second-consecutive turnover of Cincinnati’s quarterback in as many plays. By getting his hands up to block Burrow’s throwing lane, Phillips deflected the football that eventually wound up in the hands of Bills defensive end A.J. Epenesa. Having now given the ball back to Allen and the offense two plays in a row allowed Buffalo to build a lead the likes of which Cincinnati could not erase.
