Baltimore’s struggles this year cannot be sourced to one specific problem. The reality is that several key contributors have been producing below their projected level. Trevor Rogers immediately comes to mind. The same can be said for Tyler O’Neill and Keegan Akin.
Some players have performed fine, but not quite up to their potential. Gunnar Henderson entered last night’s game with a 97 OPS+. Andrew Kittredge (9.35 ERA) has not looked like a high-leverage reliever. Chris Bassitt, Coby Mayo, and pre-Memorial-Day-weekend
Colton Cowser fit the bill as well.
Several key injuries have negatively impacted the team, but the players on the active roster deserve to shoulder the blame. In the same vein, there’s a group of overachievers that deserve their flowers. Leody Taveras took the center field job from Cowser. Rico Garcia emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball. Jeremiah Jackson is playing pretty darn well for a guy that was at Double-A this time last year.
And then there’s Brandon Young.
Nobody considered Young as a candidate for the starting rotation back in spring training. Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Zach Eflin and Chris Bassitt broke camp as the starting five. Dean Kremer was a somewhat shocking omission from the Opening Day roster, while Tyler Wells was quickly relegated to the bullpen.
There was some brief though that Young could find a home in an unestablished bullpen, but the Birds squashed that early in spring. Baltimore optioned Young to minor league camp on March 7 with 67 players still in camp. He wasn’t exactly a near miss from the 26-man roster.
Craig Albernaz candidly said that there was no path for Young to make the Opening Day roster. The skipper told reporters that the team made the move so that the 27-year-old could “get built up in the minor league side and really work on some development stuff.”
Young posted a 6.24 ERA and 1.543 WHIP over 12 games in 2025. He fell somewhere in line with Cade Povich as rotational depth with some upside, but Povich held the benefit of throwing with his left arm. The idea of Young making seven starts before Memorial Day would have shocked just about everyone in Birdland back on Opening Day.
Flash forward to today and Young holds the lowest ERA of any starting pitcher on the roster. He’s 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA, and he’s held opponents to three runs or less in six of his seven appearances.
Young’s latest contribution may have been his greatest as an Oriole. Young took the ball in Game 1 of a doubleheader and tossed 6.2 strong innings. Young limited Detroit to only two unearned runs, and the Orioles won the game without taxing their bullpen for the second contest. Young struck out four, walked two, and threw a season-high 105 pitches. The 27-year-old showcased a mature and aggressive approach when the team needed it.
So have the Orioles found a rotation piece for the next few seasons? There’s reason to be skeptical. Young’s Baseball Savant page features a whole lot of blue. His FIP (4.75) sits over a full run higher than his ERA, and his expected ERA checks in at an inflated 4.26.
I can only imagine what one MASN broadcast member would have to say about expected ERAs. The Orioles didn’t expect to count on Brandon Young this early in the year, but Young has delivered up to this point.
Young has gotten away with a 36.7 ground ball percentage that ranks in the lower fourth of the league. In some ways, his early output resembles Albert Suárez’s shocking success in 2024. Suárez came out of nowhere to post a 3.70 ERA over 133.2 innings. His ground ball percentage ranked even lower at 35.5, and his expected ERA (4.08) sat higher than his on-field results. Suárez ranked in the lower half of the league in expected batting average, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage, but he got the job done. Young can say the same right now.
Young may not possess the same ceiling as the organization’s top pitching prospects, but the Orioles need players that can punch above their level. Winning teams always find a way to squeeze out production from every crevice of the roster. Young may not be the type of pitcher that should be leading the rotation in earn runs allowed, but he’s pitching like a guy that belongs in the rotation right now.
Trey Gibson is expected to start this week after joining the team on the taxi squad, but Kremer and Povich remain a ways away from a return. The remainder of pitching prospects need more polish before making a debut. Meanwhile, Rogers and Bassitt are pitching like players that could eventually need replaced.
There appears to be a starting spot for Young as long as he can hold it. To his credit, the Big Texan has exceeded expectations over the first two months. The advanced stats may not project dominant success, but the Orioles would love to see Young outrun the projections for all of 2026.
