The NFL season kicks off on Wednesday evening when the Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch.
It’s unlikely to expect both teams to reach the pinnacle of professional football again in 2026. The NFL stands for “not for long”.
It’s a league of parity. Bottom feeders climb to the top every year. Invisible forces pull contenders back towards average.
Those same forces could bring an interesting twist in the storybook tale of Seahawks QB Sam Darnold’s career.
Darnold was
drafted by the hapless New York Jets. He attempted to rebound with the Carolina Panthers and cast Baker Mayfield out of town, still this stint did little to reinvent his career. Darnold had to pay his dues in a backup role with the San Francisco 49ers before finally scoring an opportunity to shine as a starter with the Minnesota Vikings.
But even Minnesota wasn’t comfortable paying Darnold long-term following a crushing playoff loss to the Rams. He had to venture to Seattle in order to land the most significant payday of his career so far.
Few thought the Seahawks would upgrade when they traded Geno Smith to the Raiders. Instead, Darnold led Seattle to a Super Bowl victory that most never saw coming.
It’s a tale even Hollywood would be jealous of, and it’s fitting that the Seahawks had to take down the Los Angeles twice en route to their championship.
How long will this run last for Darnold? Perhaps his downfall is even as difficult to foresee as his comeback.
Why Darnold can turn back into a pumpkin
Is Darnold a better quarterback than he was when he entered the league? Yes, but maybe marginally. We cannot ignore the fact he’s enjoyed strong supporting casts the last two years with the Vikings and Seahawks—and that cast is not set to erode much in 2026.
But there are concerning signs. Darnold led the NFL in turnovers in the regular season a year ago with 20 (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost).
His performance in the first two of three games against the Rams started off rocky. Many were quick to call him “Same Darnold”. In Week 11 Darnold threw 11 interceptions in a Week 11 loss. He tossed another two picks before turnaround his fortune and leading a Week 16 victory.
It was a defying moment where he shed weight off his shoulders. He overcame the team that was holding his career back.
Will we look back and say definitively that this was the game that changed Darnold’s trajectory? Or could time prove that this was just one moment in a long line that proved to be the exception to the rule?
Before I fully buy in to Darnold as a long-term franchise quarterback I’ll need to see him succeed two years in a row. The turnovers are concerning. He enjoyed playing with one of the NFL’s best defenses. That won’t always be the case—and marginal regression could make a big impact in the win/loss columns.
Just because Sam Darnold now has a ring on his finger does not mean he’s inevitable. He’s on shaky ground until he proves otherwise.
