It wasn’t supposed to be like this for either of these teams. Two years ago, the Royals stormed out of the cave of irrelevance and into the Wild Card, winning that first series before losing to the Yankees in the division series. They followed that up with an 82-80 season of no playoffs and this year, the wheels have flown off. They’re 40-60 as the Giants stumble into town, another team with great aspirations.
Of course, the Giants haven’t experienced the postseason since 2021, and they’ve been trying
to reinvent themselves continuously since about 2018. The Royals thought they had completed their journey through their post-2015 World Series window closure and into a new run of success. That didn’t happen. And, like the Colorado Rockies, they seem remarkably dug in when it comes to moving players other teams might want at the trade deadline. For the second deadline in a row, their top two starters, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, won’t be dangled. Like the Giants, they seem like they’re going to hold on to the players other teams might actually want.
But how did the Royals fall so far so fast? They play in one of the weaker divisions in the sport… only, the White Sox have surged ahead of them after years in the wilderness. The Tigers are still hanging around. The Guardians are always right there. So, is the AL Central that bad these days? Not really. It’s just the Royals.
They’re last in pitching value this season with a 1.9 fWAR. Technically it’s tied with the Athletics for worst value, but — although the Athletics have a higher team ERA (5.36 to 5.00) — the Royals’ xERA (determined by exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed on “topped” or “weakly hit” balls) is half a run higher. And if you limit it to just the past two months (so, since 5/19), they’re the worst by far, with a team fWAR of -1.1 (5.69 ERA / 5.01 xERA) compared to the A’s -0.5 (6.28 ERA / 4.50 xERA).
Offensively, they’re in the bottom third: 16th in value (11.7 fWAR) thanks to their team defense (-3.2 Defensive Runs Above Average — 9th), but 20th in wRC+ and runs scored (97 and 426, respectively).
They are led, of course, but the incomparable Bobby Witt Jr. His team-leading 4.6 fWAR also situates him as the Most Valuable Player in the American League, trailing only Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.9) for Most Valuable Player in the sport. Backing him up is Home Run Derby participant Jac Caglianone, who has a team-leading 16 homers.
Salvador Perez is far down the slope of his career downside. The 36-year old is hitting .212/.256/.351 on the season (387 PA) and over the past month, has appeared as a catcher in just 4 of 22 games played. The rest were either at first base or as the DH. He’ll be a free agent after the season and it seems like this is his last hurrah.
He looks like he’ll come up well short of being a Hall of Famer, but he’s going to be one of those players hard to forget for Giants fans who experienced the 2014 World Series.
Meanwhile, the Giants are just 20-32 on the road, which means they have 29 more miserable games left away from Oracle park. If they keep at this pace, that’s 11 wins the rest of the season. The Royals are 13-14 in interleague and better at home (23-27) — but, just 6-6 across their last couple of homestands. The Giants are 9-15 in interleague, but have been close to a .500 team overall for about a month.
Neither of these teams are where they expected to be and neither seems set to be back to winning ways come 2027 (or whenever the lockout ends).
Series Overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (42-57) at Kansas City Royals (40-60)
Where: Kauffman Stadium | Kansas City, Missouri
When: Monday & Tuesday at 4:40pm PT, Wednesday at 11:10am PT
National broadcasts: None
Projected starters
Monday: Trevor McDonald (RHP 3-7, 5.02 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (RHP 5-7, 3.77 ERA)
Tuesday: Tyler Mahle (RHP 2-8, 5.31 ERA) vs. Luinder Avila (RHP 4-3, 5.08 ERA)
Wednesday: Landen Roupp (RHP 7-8, 3.98 ERA) vs. Seth Lugo (RHP 3-6, 4.39 ERA)
Players to watch
Royals
Lane Thomas: He’s gotten a surprising amount of play against right-handed pitching this season, but he is known as a lefty-masher. He’s also one of the team’s top trade chips, so, we’ll probably see him throughout the series. Since July 1st (14 games), he’s hit .321/.390/.698 with 4 homers (195 wRC+). His splits: .
- .219/.321/.416 vs. RHP (159 PA)
- .267/.366/.419 vs. LHP (123 PA)
Isaac Collins: The left-handed hitting left fielder has hit just .240/.342/.362 on the season, but has been on a hot streak since July 1st, slashing .293/.356/.561 with a pair of homers, a trio of doubles, and a triple, an 8.9% walk rate, and .268 ISO (150 wRC+). He’s driven in a run in 4 consecutive games.
The pitching staff: Seth Lugo (5.31 ERA, -0.1 fWAR in 20.1 IP), Michael Wacha (8.44 ERA, -0.2 fWAR in 10.2 IP), and Luinder Avila (3.60 ERA, +0.1 fWAR in 10 IP) haven’t been good this month but Wacha and Lugo have managed to strikeout batter with regularity (10.1 K/9 and 8.9 K/9 in July, respectively). The Giants’ aggressive approach could go either way.
Giants
Luis Arraez: A career .382 hitter against the Royals (55 G, 223 PA), but more importantly, a career .385 hitter in Kauffman Stadium (25 G, 191 PA). He’s dipped a bit here in July at .298/.365/.368 (.734 OPS), having ended June at .331/.366/.470 (.836 OPS).
Tyler Mahle: He’s made just one start in Kauffman Stadium and it was back in 2018. But this will be an important start for his trade value. He’s, somehow, the team’s most valuable pitcher this month (+0.4 fWAR in 11.1 IP).
Landen Roupp: A 0.60 ERA in 2 starts (15 IP) this month, but a suspicious 4.03 FIP and 3.05 xERA…
Prediction time
The Giants will take 2 out of 3.
