There’s little of broad interest in the Braves’ not-so-valiant attempts to play out the string this year, but the Wild Card races are shaping up to be a bit of a mess. The Guardians are suddenly (and potentially temporarily) relevant in the AL, where they are now just two games behind the Mariners for the final spot; the Rangers are 1.5 back. In the NL, the long-moribund Giants have pulled off a good run and leapfrogged the Reds, such that they are only two games back of the Mets. Of the four teams
mentioned not currently in a playoff spot, only the Rangers seem to have a decent shot given closeness, schedule, and talent, but anything can happen in a few baseball weeks.
That aside, though, it’s at least marginally interesting to think about final win totals that will or won’t be sufficient to make the playoffs this year. 86 was the magic number last year for both the Tigers and Royals; the Diamondbacks somehow made the playoffs with 84 wins in 2023. In the inaugural season of this stupid playoff system, it was again 86 wins, in benefit of the Rays.
This year, central estimates suggest that the Mariners will finish with 87 wins, and the Mets with 86, to take the final playoff spot in their respective league. The Mets and Mariners currently have 17 games left, so they’ll need to go 10-7 to hit those totals. Does 86 seem like the right sneak-in number to you? It’s been the right number in two of the three seasons under this system so far, so, probably — but, what ya got?
As a side note, the Wild Card situation in the NL is enough to make the Braves’ season even more disappointing in retrospect. For a long while, even after the entire rotation went down, the Braves were still producing like a .500 team. The Giants and Reds are essentially .500 teams right now and are still in definite “these games matter” mode, even if they’re unlikely to thread the needle successfully and overtake the Mets. If not for a combination of their own ostensible indifference to winning every game, and the epic-tier curse they’re enduring, the Braves could be right there too, even with a reasonable magnitude of cursed-ness. But, instead, the Braves have opted to not-so-obliquely tank in the final going, and here we are. Not that late tanking is the wrong choice, mind. It’s just sad. is all.
