A little over two months ago, I wrote about how Justin Verlander’s time as an effective major league pitcher had come to an end. Using the Verlander’s own comments to bolster my opinion, I was unequivocal in my belief that he was more bad than good for the Giants’ rotation, while acknowledging that the rotation might be in trouble anyway. L-O-L me.
I was wrong. So very wrong!
In 11 starts since I posted The Justin Has Verlanded, he’s thrown 57 innings of quality ball, posting a 3.16 ERA and 2.77 FIP
thanks to 60 strikeouts against just 17 walks. Just 3 home runs allowed! Literally the start following that post. In the prior 11 starts, he had a 4.37 ERA (4.39 FIP) in 57.2 IP with 44 strikeouts against 20 walks. He has gotten noticeably and meaningfully better as the season has gone along. Indeed, he has been the 10th-best starting pitcher in all of Major League Baseball for the past two months.
It has been an incredible turnaround. 42-year olds with that many innings on an arm aren’t just supposed to turn things around like that; at least, it’s uncommon. Randy Johnson had an incredible run in his forties (1,013 IP in 164 G — 157 GS 00 with 1,004 strikeouts), and Verlander might be in a position to do something similar. he’s pitching so well that it’s now a fair question to ask if the San Francisco Giants should try to re-sign the first ballot Hall of Famer.
He’ll be 43 in 2026 and might cost about what he did this season ($15 million), but there’s a good chance that Verlander might not be keen to re-up with our favorite team. Part of why he signed up to pitch with them was because of the park and the chance to add to his career win total. The Giants’ bullpen has extinguished so much hope in his quest to get to 300 career wins that the psychic damage might be meaningful in the face of other offers being on the table. Just speculating, but there’s still the possibility of a reunion with Detroit; or, a surprise team or two depending on the results of this postseason could emerge as parties interested in his services (and vice versa) this offseason. He’s not going to get to 300 or even 280 with the Giants and he’s pitched himself into a situation where he probably doesn’t need to have them as a suitor to sign another deal in the winter.
But it looks like the Giants might need him. Their 2026 rotation looks shaky or, better yet, one that could use solid reinforcement. Logan Webb being tasked with another 200 innings is a strategy that will work until it doesn’t, and flanking him with Robbie Ray — who, in 12 years, has never put together back-to-back great seasons — and Landen Roupp — who probably shouldn’t be penciled in for even 130 innings — doesn’t create a lot of certainty on paper. Nor would adding a 43-year old, I suppose, but I still think that as inspiring as Buster Posey’s time has been in terms of fulfilling the team’s needs, it’s going to be tough for the team to compete against some of the better arms on the market.
On Sunday, Susan Slusser speculated that the Giants would pursue the Cardinals’ Sonny Gray in the winter despite a $30 million salary for 2026 (and $5 million buyout for 2027).
Gray is precisely the type of starter the Giants are likely to target this season, especially if Justin Verlander does not re-sign with the team.
To be clear, Gray has been more valuable than Verlander overall this season (3.1 fWAR vs. 2.2), but next season is perhaps a different story. The Cardinals signed him to a 3-year, $75 million deal in the 2023-2024 offseason and has been on a steady decline since 2023: 5.4 fWAR, 3.8 fWAR, 3.1 this season. The Cardinals might’ve seen a 10+ WAR projection for him to support that particular contract (and that would be a fair, winning deal for both sides) and it’s possible that the Cardinals’ malaise this season has eaten into his performance significantly, but at the same time, $30 million on a 2-3 fWAR pitcher feels rather unreasonable, and adding in prospects in hopes of lowering that financial commitment doesn’t exactly make sense — unless Chaim Bloom really likes Wade Meckler, Marco Luciano, and, like, Keaton Winn or Tristan Beck. Rolling the dice on another 2-WAR year from Verlander for half the cost makes a bit more sense.
MLB Trade Rumors mentioned Sandy Alcantara and Joe Ryan as other possible trade targets, and Slusser even mentioned former Giant and current Luis Castillo as another option, but I think trades are a tough thing to predict and a riskier proposition for a team like the Giants that’s trying to rebuild its player development pipeline. It’d be better if the Giants spent between $15-$30 million AAV on some of the free agents this offseason. MLBTR mentioned Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Brandon Woodruff, and Zac Gallen, at least two of whom might get tagged with a qualifying offer or be otherwise high on the list of other teams.
That’s the rub. The competition.
Buster Posey going big in his first offseason makes a whole lot of sense, but giving top dollar to free agents that don’t necessarily fit that mold is how the Giants got into their rebuild mess in the first place. It might’ve made sense to overpay to get Johnny Cueto, but the combo with Jeff Samardzija proved to be so unpalatable to the ownership group that it hurt their free agent pursuits for years so the Giants gained very little by becoming so top heavy. At the end of the day, Justin Verlander might be a reasonable option in a sea of bad ones or simply ones out of reach.
Again, all credit to Justin Verlander for pitching his way back into a situation where it’s clear he needs to be a consideration. He might look best on a team where he wouldn’t have to be the third-best option, but the fact is that he has been that for the Giants in 2025 and in such a way that he might be a necessity in 2026.
