It was three years ago now that the Orioles got everybody’s hopes up for a dominant era to come when they raced to a 101-61 regular season record. They kept our hopes up in the first half of the season two years ago by playing at about that hot of a pace, then things started going wrong, with the team closing that 2024 season with a .500 second half and no postseason wins to show for 192 regular season wins in two years. Last year, look, we don’t need to talk any more about that.
There is no question
that the Orioles have gone out and tried something different heading into 2026. The big signing of Pete Alonso was without precedent in the Mike Elias era, and his aggressive trade for Shane Baz was likewise outside of his usual pattern. Although he still refuses to spend multi-year money on the starting rotation, he’s nonetheless rebuilt what was a disastrous group from last year’s Opening Day. The only carryover from this time a year ago is Zach Eflin, who is hopefully a lot better now that his back has been fixed.
That’s the optimistic spin on things. You could also be pessimistic about the fact that a bunch of the same guys are back from a patchwork bullpen that wasn’t very good. You could be worried about the defense, too, especially now that it’s looking like Coby Mayo is going to be the first guy to get a shot to replace Jordan Westburg. The Red Sox made big moves. The Blue Jays made big moves. The Yankees are always the Yankees. It’s going to be a tough fight to get back to the top.
With all that in mind, what do you hope for from the Orioles this season? What do you think is going to happen when you add a dose of reality to your hopes? I polled some of the other Camden Chat writers on four quick things, and I’m interested in knowing what you think about these as well, so drop in to the comments and let us know what you think is:
- The biggest hope about the 2026 Orioles
- The biggest concern
- Their final regular season record
- A wild prediction (big or small) that you think will happen
Biggest hopes
Paul: My biggest hope is that the Orioles’ homegrown youngsters prove they’ve still got the juice to be the core of a contending team, with Adley Rutschman bouncing back, Jackson Holliday taking a leap forward, and Gunnar Henderson re-establishing himself as one of the best players in baseball. Combine that with the help of the newly acquired veterans and the O’s will be more than capable of returning to the playoffs.
John: Orioles not only make the playoffs but win a playoff series. We all need something to help us forget the disappointments against Texas and Kansas City in 2023 and 2024.
Alex: At a minimum, it’s crucial for this team to establish a winning culture that extends into the fall. That starts with winning a postseason series.
Stacey: “Biggest hope” will always be that they win the World Series. But my most realistic big hope is that they win a dang playoff game. It’s been a long time since game three of the 2014 ALDS. After last year, it’s tempting to say that they just need to get back to the playoffs. But even if they have a great regular season and get to the postseason, watching them be swept out of the playoffs again might be more than I can take.
Tyler: The offense gets back on track to be the elite group it was supposed to be all along. That would probably mean Gunnar is an MVP candidate, Alonso is in the mix for the home run crown, and one of the young players has taken a leap. A feisty lineup takes the pressure off of every other element of the team, which seems like the most plausible path to success for them.
Mark: That they’re going to hit a lot of dingers! I still can’t believe that last year’s team had no one hit more than 17 home runs. They signed Alonso, they traded for Ward, Henderson is healthy again… it’s time to see some dingers again, because they’re going to need ‘em.
Biggest concerns
Mark: I don’t know how I’m supposed to pick between the bullpen and the defense here. Either one of these areas, or both, could easily sink the 2026 Orioles. Maybe there’s a little bit more chance of bullpen help from the minors, but as we saw last year, if a fatal flaw sets you far enough behind early on…
Tyler: An injury to Bradish and/or Rogers. With those two healthy, I feel rather confident in the rotation. I think it could be a fringe Top 10 staff in MLB. But if one of them goes down for a significant amount of time, I would expect the team’s entire outlook to take a huge hit.
Stacey: I’m really concerned about the bullpen. I can’t think of a single relief pitcher I have faith in. The closer had recent success but struggled last year. Yennier Cano has been awful. Andrew Kittredge is hurt. Tyler Wells pitched seven games in the past two years. Keegan Akin is Keegan Akin. And the rest of the guys are the sort who should be in the minors waiting for a call-up after the good pitchers get hurt.
Alex: Is this a bullpen that can close out close games? There’s a lot of uncertainty down there.
John: That some of the more boom or bust additions end up under performing. Taylor Ward doesn’t come close to 30 HR/100 RBIs again. Ryan Helsley starts looking like 2024 Craig Kimbrel. Shane Baz continues to struggle with giving up walks and home runs.
Paul: I’m concerned that the Orioles’ defense will be one of the worst in the league, stifling any chance of having a quality pitching staff. I’m also concerned that the patchwork bullpen will cough up a lot of late leads and bring about some demoralizing losses.
Orioles record predictions
Paul: 84-78
Stacey: 87-75
Tyler: 89-73
Alex: 87-75
Mark: 87-75
John: 87-75
Believe it or not, everyone submitted their answers independently of one another. Our best guesser last year was Paul, whose pessimistic 81-81 did not prove to be pessimistic enough but was closer to what happened than any of the rest of us.
What the computers say
- FanGraphs: 84-78 (last year: 83-79)
- PECOTA: 83-79 (last year: 87-75)
- A random sportsbook that operates in Maryland: Over/under 85.5 wins (last year: 86.5)
Wild predictions
Two of the Camden Chat staff cashed in on wild predictions a year ago. Paul’s pessimistic take that it would be Brandon Hyde’s final season as manager hit before Memorial Day. I ended up being correct that Jackson Holliday would have the most games at leadoff hitter. This did not, however, prove to be correct in an exciting and fun way.
John: Kyle Bradish wins the AL Cy Young.
Mark: This is finally going to be the year that Mike Elias makes a July trade that makes you think “I can’t believe the Orioles traded for THAT guy!” (complimentary rather than derogatory).
Paul: Chris Bassitt will be removed from the rotation by May but will become the Orioles’ most reliable set-up man for the rest of the season.
Stacey: My wild prediction last year was that Adley Rutschman would have an incredible season. That did not happen, obviously. But I am doubling down. I just cannot quit Adley. He’ll be in the MVP conversation and will make the All-Star team. If he is bad again this year, I will give up on him forever.
Tyler: The Orioles recapture the magic of 2012 and lead the league in one-run wins, allowing them to squeeze into the playoffs as a wild card team.
Alex: Taylor Ward hits more home runs than Pete Alonso.
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What are you thinking about this year as we stand on the cusp of the season’s beginning? Drop into the comments so you have proof to tell everyone how right you were all along.
