There’s a fine line between pessimism and realism. The line between optimism and delusion is equally fine.
On a related note, people are annoying.
“Just be a fan!”
Sorry if I can’t turn my brain off. It just functions despite self-interest.
“The Houston Rockets are doomed!”
Yes, a team stacked with good players under 25 and one of the best collections of draft capital in the NBA is thoroughly hopeless because they’re not as good as two teams. Absolutely doomed to damnation, they are.
It’s a fine line.
All you can do is operate on a case-by-case basis. For example, we don’t know what Fred VanVleet might look like in 2026-27 after returning from a torn ACL.
Unfortunately, realism feels more viable than delusion in this case.
Rockets’ Fred VanVleet returning from gruesome injury
One frustrating component of this situation is the lack of precedent. Every case of a player returning from an ACL tear before, say, 2005 or so, should be thrown out. Sports medicine has improved a lot, which is why LeBron James is still practically LeBron James at the age of 41.
Yet, nothing short of sorcery could completely mitigate the effects of an ACL tear. It remains a variable. If we’re looking for recent examples of full recoveries, the data set is limited.
Zach LaVine did it. He tore his ACL in 2017 and eventually came back better than ever. He’s not a good analog for VanVleet. LaVine was a raw athlete who facilitated his comeback by developing his overall craftiness and feel for the game. VanVleet is an already-underwhelming NBA athlete who’s got craft and feel to spare.
One could argue that makes him a strong candidate to return to form. One could also argue that he couldn’t spare any of the athleticism he already had. That said, LaVine’s burst and vertical leap weren’t diminished, so perhaps VanVleet can functionally be the same athlete he was before:
Although that’s arguably part of the problem.
There’s another difference between LaVine and VanVleet: Age. LaVine was 21 when he suffered his injury. VanVleet is 32. That also separates him from Jamal Murray, who successfully returned from an ACL tear at 24. Even if VanVleet’s ACL had remained intact, there was concern that he’d decline:
He sure looked to be when he was last in action.
Rockets need point guard solutions
VanVleet was not bad in 2024-25. That would be an overstatement. He was still the undisputed champion of high-volume assist-to-turnover ratio’ing. His pull-up three was still a weapon.
But, he was the worst version of himself to exist in some time. VanVleet averaged 14.1 points per game with a woeful 51.5 True Shooting % (TS%).
Per databallr, the Rockets were still +3.4 when he was on the floor. VanVleet has always been someone who just finds a way to make good things happen. A timely steal here, a smart pass there. He’s always defended the point of attack well, in addition to the aforementioned superpower of never turning the ball over.
The Rockets will (almost certainly) be adding a rotation-caliber point guard to the rotation. For this team, that alone is a positive. Still, they’d better not be counting on VanVleet as a surefire starter. Either they’re ready to give Reed Sheppard a longer leash, they’ve got an acquisition in mind (whether a starter or someone to bolster a platoon) or they’re wildly optimistic:
Some might even say delusional.
