The San Francisco 49ers are taking on the Seattle Seahawks on the road in Week 5, with the winner moving to first in the NFC West.
San Francisco has started off the season strong, going 4-0 with several convincing wins. They’ve beaten two playoff contenders, while handling business against two struggling teams as well. Seattle, on the other hand, has started getting into form with Sam Darnold healthy, and they’re going to be the toughest challenge the 49ers have seen so far.
Heading into the game,
the 49ers are 3-point underdogs. How can they pull off the victory on the road?
The third down battle
I mentioned in the predictions piece earlier this week that this feels like a physical, rugged battle that could have a similar tune to last week.
Both teams could play with a slower pace, and both teams will look to establish the run, and that makes extending drives that much more important. That battle becomes even more challenging when you see the stark differences between the two teams.
The Seahawks are the third-best defense on third downs, allowing opponents to convert at only a 28.6 percent clip. Meanwhile, the 49ers are the clear leaders in the NFL in third-down conversion rate at above 57 percent, while averaging 0.45 EPA per play on third down, an elite rate and good for second in the NFL.
If the 49ers can find a way to stay on the field, they’ve got a really good shot at controlling the pace and winning this game. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Seattle has been atrocious on third downs, converting at just a 31.1 percent rate. That provides a big opportunity as well for the 49ers, but it also depends on the next part…
Who can run efficiently enough?
Both of these teams will want to run the ball. San Francisco and Seattle both rank in the top 10 in rush rate, but there is a difference in how they run.
The 49ers are ninth in rush EPA per play with their high-octane offense, while the Seahawks are all the way down at No. 26 under new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury. Now, the 49ers do drop to 14th in the first half, but the Niners are also eighth in success rate compared to 21st for the Seahawks.
The trench battle will be pivotal. The 49ers will have to find a way to beat the Seahawks defensive line enough on the ground, but it’s the other side of the battle that could be the more difficult side. Seattle’s Emmanuel Wilson had a productive day running behind his offensive line last week. The Seahawks could try to operate similarly to try to move the ball on the ground, which can open up the play-action game.
This 49ers defense has played well despite its banged-up personnel. But this will be a tough matchup on both sides for efficient running. Can either team break that open?
Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy has had some really good and really rough games against the Seahawks in his career.
The game script is pointing to a ton coming on his shoulders. The receivers are banged up. Mike Evans and his busted-up ribs looked hurt last weekend. Kyle Juszczyk adds a personnel issue with his injury. And it’s the Seahawks defense that loves to tee up on opposing quarterbacks.
Purdy is going to have to take care of the football. He hasn’t against the Seahawks in the past, but has done an exceptional job of playing clean football this season. There were times, Kyle Shanahan noted, that Purdy wasn’t patient enough last week in letting plays develop. He’ll need to really read the field clearly against Mike Macdonald’s crafty defense, and just needs to execute the offense on Sunday.
If the 49ers win, though, Purdy is probably a big part of it.
