Turns out that I was both right and wrong last weekend?
I went into Marquette’s Senior Day game against Butler thinking that the Golden Eagles could clinch a Big East tournament berth with a win and some help, but that was because I screwed up the tiebreaker math and who already had a win in hand. When I was writing my recap, I redid the math for the Up Next scenario and realized I had gotten it wrong and MU had in fact not clinched yet, at least not by straight wins and losses and head to head matchup
tiebreakers.
Fast forward to when Marquette published their official recap, and BOOM: The Golden Eagles HAVE clinched a spot in the Big East tournament. Shouts to whoever it is in the league office who’s doing the ultra-deep multi-level tiebreaker math to figure out that no matter what happens in the Marquette/UConn game on Saturday, we’re getting at least one more game from Meredith Black and her squad this season.
That doesn’t mean that Marquette is out of things to chase on Saturday. At 9-5 on the year, the Golden Eagles are chasing their 10th win of the season, which brings a couple of bonuses if they get there. It would mark the fourth season in program history with double digit victories, all of which have been in the past nine campaigns, and the first time that the Golden Eagles got to at least 10 wins in back-to-back seasons. A win would also lock Marquette into the #3 seed in the tournament and possibly give them another crack at the Georgetown team they just narrowly lost to in Milwaukee this season in the conference semifinals, depending on how GU’s finale against Denver goes.
On an individual level, Dani Serrano is tied with Meg Bireley in 2023 and Grace Gabriel in 2019 for the 8th most points in a season in program history. She needs two more to tie and three to pass a three-way tie for fifth place. Serrano’s 36 assists this season are already at #5 in program history for a single season…. and the freshman from Maryland needs four more helpers to pass Leigh Steiner for 10th most in a career.
Tess Osburn is five goals away from tying her career high in that department which is also a tie for the eighth most goals in a season. Her 54 points this season have moved Osburn to 198 in her MU career, which means she could become the fourth player in program history with 200 on Saturday. Osburn needs six more goals to pass Lydia Foust for the fourth most goals in a Marquette career, too.
Clinching an appearance in the Big East semifinals is a big deal, but it opens a door to an extra 60 minutes of lacrosse this season to help boost up those numbers for Serrano and Osburn… and even Sofia Santana and Mary Velner, who are in the top 10 for caused turnovers in a season right now.
Good news: No pressure for Saturday’s regular season finale. But it can be a springboard into the Big East tournament, too.
Big East Game #6: at Connecticut Huskies (6-9, 2-3 Big East)
Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
Time: 10:30am Central
Location: Morrone Stadium, Storrs, Connecticut
Streaming: ESPN+
Live Stats: Stat Broadcast
Bluesky Updates: @AnonymousEagle
Marquette is 3-10 all time against UConn. The series actually goes all the way back to a meeting in Marquette’s first season as a program in 2013, but the Golden Eagles didn’t actually get a win until 2018. That was well timed, as 1) It clinched MU’s first ever postseason appearance and 2) the Huskies blipped off to the American Conference for two years there as that conference had started sponsoring the sport before UConn returned to the Big East for the 2021 campaign. UConn won the only postseason meeting between the two, a 17-16 contest in the 2023 Big East tournament, and MU won last year’s meeting to make it three wins in the last eight encounters.
Relative to UConn’s 6-9 record, I think it’s important to point out that they played Harvard on Tuesday night and took a 19-12 loss to the Crimson, and that broke up a three game winning streak. That’s a streak of clonking Butler 15-4, clonking Xavier 15-6, and clonking New Hampshire 20-7. Thus, before these last four games, Connecticut was 3-8. That’s mostly because they started out Big East play with three straight losses, which is probably more about getting Denver/Georgetown/Villanova as their first three games. In the category of “no matter what happens, Marquette is in the Big East tournament,” I’m guessing that UConn losing 15-4 to Denver and 18-7 to Georgetown has a part to play there. After all, Marquette only lost by one to the Hoyas and only six to the Pioneers. Feels like goal differential plays a part here, right? Not quite sure the league can say “well, UConn’s not beating Marquette by 16, come on now” as a clinching scenario, but that definitely feels pretty accurate.
One of the things I noted going slightly wrong with UConn back at the start of league play was the lack of production from Rayea Davis. She was my pick for Preseason Offensive Player of the Year but wasn’t even leading the Huskies at the time. That’s changed, as she has 11 goals and five assists in Connecticut’s five Big East games. That’s moved her just ever so slightly out in front of Megan O’Brien, who was their goals and points leader at the time. O’Brien did miss the Butler game for whatever reason, but she’s been back in the lineup since, scoring twice against Harvard on Tuesday.
At the end of the day, getting Davis going hasn’t fixed UConn’s offense. Lacrosse Reference has them at #105 in the country in offensive efficiency, partially because they’re 123rd in shooting percentage and 120th in turnover rate. That’s a bad mix, one that even Marquette’s #60 defense should be able to take advantage of pretty frequently.
On the other end of the field, things aren’t much better for UConn, where LaxRef ranks them #74. That’s going to be tested by Marquette’s top 20 offense to say the least. Sofia Oximana is stopping 41% of shots on goal this year, which has her in the back half of goalies in the Big East. I am curious as to whether or not she’s available for this game as she was pulled just 20 minutes into the Harvard game, but that was after giving up four goals in the first five minutes of the second quarter after UConn was tied 3-3 at the start of the period. That can go both ways on “is hurt” and “confidence is shot,” so it’s hard to say for certain at the moment. If Oximana can go, she is UConn’s better option, as freshman Jillian Terlizzi is the only other keeper to play this season and she’s only stopping 37% of shots on frame.
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