Frogs O’ War Roundtable: vs. Baylor Bears

At the halfway mark of the Horned Frogs 2025 campaign, what is your assessment of the performance to date? What are your expectations for TCU in the second half of the season?

• Anthony: I’d say that sitting with a 4-2 record is about what we should’ve realistically expected going into the season, even projecting tough games in Manhattan and Tempe. However what is disappointing is TCU is clearly not playing up to its potential, unable to deliver the final result despite likely putting a better product onto the field. Most of the reservations you’d have following 2024 remain: poor special teams, run game completely shut down (either by defenses or by TCU’s own coaches), surrendering big plays defensively, terrible discipline creating wholly avoidable penalties, Josh Hoover giving the ball away frequently. TCU continues to get out coached in game day readiness and game day execution, the two losses very well should’ve been wins with one or two better decisions. TCU should be contending for the Big 12 every season and halfway through the campaign and that reasonable goal is already virtually unattainable. The Horned Frogs will likely go on a solid win streak, get enough wins for a decent enough bowl, but it’ll take immense fortune for TCU to have a viable path to Arlington headed into the final weeks of the season.
• Austin: As crazy as it sounds, the Horned Frogs have largely met expectations so far. The midseason view is a bit skewed, as TCU started stronger than anticipated, trouncing the North Carolina Tar Heels and defeating the SMU Mustangs by 11. After a 3-0 start, confidence was high. Then came a three-point loss at Arizona State, a come-from-behind defeat against Colorado, and a lopsided loss to Kansas State. Still, in Frogs O’ War’s preseason roundtable, I projected TCU to finish 9-3, with losses to Arizona State, Kansas State, and BYU. With a middling schedule ahead, a nine-win season is still within reach. Of course, several areas need improvement—including the running game, offensive line, and defensive backfield. If TCU can make noticeable strides in those three areas, even a 10-2 season isn’t out of the question—but it would require significant progress.
• Caleb: The Frogs have met most projections after 6 games, dropping 2 road contests that most analysts had pencilled in as losses from the jump. One would imagine that we’d all be pleased to make it out with only two blemishes, but there’s two stinging issues. First, the losses are littered with self-inflicted wounds. Handing a 2-4 K-State team 14 points in the middle frame of last week’s loss required 0% of the coaching acumen that we expected from Chris Klieman to use in vanquishing the beloved Horned Frogs as usual. Surrendering a 17-0 lead against ASU was another one that stung, particularly Hoover’s turnovers with the game on the line. Secondly, the rest of the Big 12 has risen to the occasion. Cincinnati came seemingly out of nowhere to be a dominating force, the Tech money-whip experiment is paying off (no pun intended), and Brigham Young has established themself as a force even with a Freshman QB. Some teams are seizing opportunities and the Frogs just aren’t one of them.
• Drew: Unfortunately, the 2025 season feels eerily similar to the 2024 season thus far. TCU has struggled with offensive line play, turnovers, and protecting leads this season which were all issues a year ago. Much like last year, the schedule appeared to get easier through the first couple of weeks and again the Frogs have been unable to take advantage and lost two winnable games. That said, I think this team is better than 2024’s team and can still make a run down the stretch to meet expectations for the year. Reaching the Big 12 title game is still within reach and my expectations now are to be at least in contention for a spot in the title game heading in to the last week of the regular season.
• Russ: I think the biggest positive over the first half of this season is that TCU took care of business against its nonconference opponents. The Horned Frogs dominated UNC and Abilene Christian before taking back the Iron Skillet from SMU. Since the 3-0 start, though, TCU has been underwhelming in Big 12 play, barely beating Colorado and averaging less than 3 yards per carry against the worst run defense in the conference. Bad road losses against Arizona State (blew a 17-point lead) and Kansas State don’t bode well for the Horned Frogs, who may have to win out in order to make the conference championship game. I don’t see things getting easier for TCU, as Houston, BYU and Cincinnati are all playing well. Additionally, TCU still has to play Baylor and Iowa State. I think 10 wins are still possible, but there are several issues to fix.

In two Big 12 road trips, QB Josh Hoover has six total turnovers. What is your diagnosis as the cause of these struggles and can it be fixed?

• Anthony: Hoover’s tendency to throw every pass through the sound barrier creates too many opportunities for bad deflections off of receivers or simply over-thrown balls that end up better targeted to a defender. TCU receivers seem to struggle with drops, but some of that is attributed to Hoover often losing his touch and his panic throws coming out like a speeding bullet. I wouldn’t say it’s anything particular to playing on the road, just that TCU’s two toughest games thus far have been away from Fort Worth. When Hoover throws under control – even when plays break down and he’s on the move – he is a deadly threat, but when the throw is rushed it becomes a danger to the offense. Keep it chill and call plays with an actual chance of success and he’ll be elite.
• Austin: Josh Hoover’s turnovers haven’t been necessarily bone-headed, but they’ve come at inopportune times. He had an ugly interception against both Arizona State and Kansas State with the game on the line. Whenever Hoover is under duress, his decision-making is at its worst. Of course, that can be said of many quarterbacks. However, as a pocket passer, Hoover’s circumstances are a bit different. Identifying blitzes and savvy play-calling are far more important than improvisation. That part is more difficult to fix as it’s reliant on Ken Briles’ more so. However, Hoover’s ball security, or lack thereof, must be improved. The TCU signal caller has demonstrated a better scrambling ability than a season ago, but his pocket awareness needs to improve.
• Caleb: I generally don’t think Josh operates well outside of the play design, particularly with this weak of an offensive line. He can connect on the occasional prayer if him and McAllister are on the same page that day, but otherwise he’s too dependent on Kendal Briles to script him into positive outcomes. Josh throws a beautiful deep ball and hits the intermediate routes coming out of breaks almost perfectly, but he hasn’t made proper reads against zone defense. Against ASU and KSU he’s thrown interceptions on the same option route where the X receiver breaks away from the safety/linebacker and Josh hit the defenders right between the numbers. The cure for this would be for Briles to call a normal game and run the ball when Kevorian Barnes is averaging 7 yards per carry, instead of treating screen passes as a stand-in for the running game. Can Hoover & Briles stop outsmarting themselves? If yes, it can be fixed.
• Drew: It feels like Hoover’s turnovers are a result of him trying to play hero ball to make up for other areas of the team struggling. In the game against Arizona State, Hoover did a great job protecting the ball in the first half but played too aggressively in the second half when the running game struggled and the receivers struggled with drops. The interceptions against Kansas State came when TCU was already down and I think Hoover felt like he needed to play perfectly in the second half. I think TCU’s coaching staff could do a better job of keeping Hoover calm on the sideline and telling him to take it one play at a time.
• Russ: Josh Hoover has made plenty of mistakes, but I think there’s too much being placed on his shoulders to carry the offense. TCU failed to run the ball against Arizona State and Colorado, but against K-State, TCU abandoned the run game in the first half and early in the third quarter when Kevorian Barnes was running for around 7 yards a carry. As talented as Hoover and TCU’s wide receivers are, the Horned Frogs cannot be successful on offense if they don’t play complementary football. When TCU fails (or abandons) the run, then Hoover is forced to make all of the plays and he’s shown this season (and last season) that he’s prone to turning the ball over. The diagnosis is to fully commit to running the ball, I’d say 25-30 times a game.

TCU fans online seem to be split over appropriate expectations for the football program. Should the Horned Frogs be annual Big 12 and CFP contenders or is bowl eligibility an acceptable measure of success?

• Anthony: TCU has the resources, location, history, facilities, and everything needed to compete at the highest level of the sport. Following up a run to the National Championship Game with three straight seasons outside of Big 12 title contention is simply unacceptable, especially given the current state of the Big 12 and the 12-team Playoff era. Missing bowls should be strictly forbidden in Fort Worth and the Horned Frogs should never go a recruiting cycle without a trip to Arlington in December.
• Austin: Calling TCU an annual Big 12 and CFP contender may be a stretch, but it’s not unrealistic to expect the Horned Frogs to reach the Big 12 Championship and the CFP every few years. A more reasonable expectation is yearly bowl eligibility, which aligns with the program’s standards. Falling short of that mark in any given season would be a significant disappointment.
• Caleb: Herm Edwards has the famous line that “you play to win the game.” If you aren’t aiming to win the championship of your sport every year, you should probably shut that program down and devote funds to one that you can compete in. Particularly in the shadow of a CFP appearance, TCU should command more respect from their donors and fans to expect as much also. College Football resets every year, there isn’t any tanking for draft picks or rebuilding years. With the transfer portal, as TCU has shown, you can become a contender overnight. Anything less than that is futile, considering the school is pitching tickets to an alumni base that is generally apathetic about sports to begin with. The people need to see success to care.
• Drew: I think being a contender for a spot in the Big 12 title game should be the expectation every season. That means TCU should be playing meaningful football games into November on a regular basis. Bowl eligibility feels like too low of a bar in a conference without a true dominant team and with the resources TCU has at its disposal.
• Russ: TCU should be a Big 12 title contender every season. Whether that results in a CFP berth will vary from year to year, but the Horned Frogs have too many resources and recruit too well to be a middle-of-the-road team in a conference that lost its top two blue bloods in Texas and Oklahoma. If the expectation isn’t to win the Big 12 title, then what are we doing here?

Sawyer Robertson vs. Josh Hoover is a battle between the nation’s top two leading passers, does either defense have a hope of slowing these gunslingers?

• Anthony: No way. Best chance of either offense being shut down can only be come as a result of the TCU Offensive Coordinator abandoning a successful run game, calling trick plays as soon as the Frogs cross midfield, calling backward lateral swing passes deep in its own territory, and ensuring every 3rd down conversion attempt is a quick pass several yards short of the first down line. TCU got torched by KSU TE Garrett Oakley last week and now has the nightmare of seeing the Big 12’s top TE Michael Trigg running routes through the secondary. Last season in Waco it was the ground game that TCU was wholly unable to stop, but this time around look out for Robertson to have his way with a vulnerable TCU pass defense.
• Austin: No. Sawyer Robertson and Josh Hoover both topping 300 yards is a possibility. TCU allows 240.7 yards per game, while Baylor gives up 226.5. Still, neither team has faced a player of Robertson or Hoover’s caliber. Expect a shootout, and despite Baylor’s struggles against the run, Briles’ pass-first philosophy isn’t likely to change.
• Caleb: They do not! Both quarterbacks will have a field day, since Robertson will be behind a solid offensive line and Hoover has an OC that refuses to run the ball. Baylor already pass blocks well against 4 man fronts so as long as they don’t get confused by where Avalos is sending pressure they’ll allow Robertson the time to slice and dice the TCU defense with his numerous weapons. Sonny’s comments after K State about “getting their playmakers involved early” leads me to believe that McAllister will have 10 targets in the first half, which is not a bad strategy either for Hoover to match Robertson’s pace.
• Drew: I think this game will be a shootout. I am very concerned about TCU’s inability to rush the passer without blitzing and it will take an all time performance from Andy Avalos to disguise his blitzes well enough to confuse and stop Sawyer Robertson. On the other side, I think the TCU offense bounces back from a tough day against Kansas State and has plenty of success through the air.
• Russ: I see both of these quarterbacks posting big numbers. Fortunately for the Horned Frogs, Hoover has been more consistent at home as opposed to playing on the road. TCU has struggled to get home on blitzes and pass rushes over the last two weeks and if they’re unable to get to Robertson, he’ll pick the defense apart.

Will the TCU-Baylor rivalry ever reach the hate-filled heights of 2014-15 or the national stakes of 2021-22?

• Anthony: The rivalry is dead. I don’t think anything can bring back the levels of vitriol seen through the mid-2010s at the peak of the Patterson-Briles battles. College Football is simply more transactional now, it’s a business far more than before, many of the players & coaches may swap teams multiple times throughout his career. There just isn’t the room for that kind of lingering disgust in today’s CFB. There will never be an evil villain to root against like that ever again – perhaps Cody Campbell can get there, but for now that’s mostly a desire to stop seeing him during every commercial break all season. Time passes and everyone moves on and shameless Texas towns will name their high school stadiums after them. The games will continue to carry great meaning even when neither is performing at the peak of its powers, and one day it’ll have national relevance again
• Austin: Yes, it will. With SMU off the schedule, Baylor is now undeniably public enemy No. 1. The Bears need to find a way to sustain success, but I could see that happening in the near future. With Texas Tech arguably leading the NIL era, TCU and Baylor could emerge as the second and third-best Big 12 teams for the rest of the 2020s.
• Caleb: Something bad will have to happen to reach the levels of burning hatred that the mid-2010’s held for this rivalry. Art Briles and Gary Patterson hated each other and that was felt in the stands, but now each coach has donned the colors of the opposite program in recent years and the rivalry lines have been blurred. Maybe when Dave Aranda moves on they’ll hire a detestable personality like Rhett Lashlee and the Bluebonnet Battle will be inflamed once more. As far as national prominence, it should. As long as these teams can build their NIL funds and roster build like Tech has been then there’s no reason this game shouldn’t have large-scale conference implications each year.
• Drew: I think it will. I thought this year had the chance to be a game that reignited the hate of the 2010s with the expectations both fan bases had for their teams heading into the season but both teams have stumbled a bit out of the gate. Still, this is the biggest game on the calendar every year for both sides and I think all it will take is one game where both teams are ranked or near undefeated for the hate to fully come back.
• Russ: It’s very possible, although I think TCU’s rivalry with Texas Tech will be one to keep an eye on as the new Big 12 progresses. I haven’t seen enough from either program over the last few years to believe both the Bears and Horned Frogs can ascend to conference title contending status. Perhaps that will chance in the next few years, or maybe I’ve lost the pulse a bit.

Offensive MVP vs. Baylor

• Anthony: Josh Hoover. Coming off another very bad day at the office, the TCU QB needs to return to form and be the reason the Horned Frogs win the game. This stage is the opportunity for Hoover to show he is the best quarterback in the conference and out-duel Sawyer Robertson on the other sideline. With much of TCU’s starting offensive line injured and best questionable for Saturday’s showdown, Hoover is going to be forced into very difficult situations. If he’s able to keep his cool and keep the Frogs on the field for long scoring drives, he’ll deserve his flowers.
• Austin: Kevorian Barnes. Briles needs to establish the run. Baylor allows a staggering 177.2 rushing yards per game. Their run defense has improved since giving up 307 yards to Auburn, but Barnes is an electrifying talent who should get at least 20 carries. Establishing the ground game will go a long way toward securing the victory.
• Caleb: Eric McAllister is a 1st round receiver talent. Sometimes you have to pick the low-hanging fruit or else you go hungry. As long as last week’s mistakes are learned from, he should feast on a dreadfully poor Baylor CB group.
• Drew: Eric McAlister. It took almost three quarters for the Frogs to start targeting McAlister against Kansas State last week and he still had over 150 yards and two touchdowns. I think Hoover looks for his WR1 early and often against the Bears and McAlister has a huge day.
• Russ: Kevorian Barnes. TCU has faced three of the worst run defenses in the Big 12 over the last three weeks in Colorado, Kansas State and Baylor. It didn’t work out against either the Buffaloes or Wildcats (for different reasons). I have minimal faith Kendal Briles will actually oblige and commit to pounding the rock, but getting Barnes and the backs going will alleviate a lot of the pressure from Hoover.

Defensive MVP vs. Baylor

• Anthony: Namdi Obiazor. Is terrific and terrifying as Baylor’s passing attack is, it’s RB Bryson Washington for tortured the Frogs in Waco last year, with nearly 200 yards and 4 TDs. Obiazor was part of that defense that got cooked a year ago and will be better prepared to exact some revenge this time around, shutting down the ground attack, allowing the secondary to focus on slowing the many Baylor weapons in the aerial attack.
• Austin: Pick a cornerback—any cornerback! I’ll go with Vernon Glover. Baylor’s passing attack is so well-distributed that Glover will likely face multiple prolific targets, including tight end Michael Trigg. He’ll need a strong game for the Horned Frogs to have any shot at victory.
• Caleb: Bud Clark is the hero we’ll get, because he always plays good against Baylor. However, we need Jamel Johnson to step up and limit Michael Trigg’s interior passing game damage. As long as those duties are slightly split between the two, the Frogs should survive.
• Drew: Kaleb Elarms-Orr. TCU is going to have to get pressure on Sawyer Robertson to have a shot on Saturday and I expect KEO to be sent on a number of blitzes by Andy Avalos. I think Elarms-Orr picks up a sack and a couple QB hurries against the Bears.
• Russ: Devean Deal. After a strong game against Arizona State, Deal has been quiet over the last few weeks. TCU will need its top EDGE rusher to make plays on Saturday.

Final Score

• Anthony: TCU 49, Baylor 41
• Austin: TCU 41, Baylor 38.
• Caleb: TCU 41, Baylor 44
• Drew: TCU 38, Baylor 35
• Russ: TCU 35, Baylor 31