The Mariners have peaked at exactly the right time. Fresh off a cathartic series sweep in Houston, the M’s are firmly in the driver’s seat to win their first division title since 2001 and could clinch
a playoff berth as soon as this evening. The division could be wrapped up as soon as tomorrow and the second seed — with the all-important first-round bye — is well within their sights. With the rest of the American League an absolute mess, Seattle has quickly emerged as one of the favorites heading into the postseason. FanGraphs gives them the best odds of winning the World Series of any team in baseball. It’s an odd feeling. The M’s haven’t been seen as a favorite since that historic season two decades ago.
All that stands between the Mariners and their playoff destiny is the worst team in baseball. The Rockies won their series against the Angels last weekend, ensuring they wouldn’t match the historically inept 2024 White Sox, but they’re still one of the worst teams in baseball history. It’s a tough time to be a Rockies fan. They’ve had some success in the recent past — they had back-to-back playoff appearances in 2017 and ‘18 — but they’ve been absolutely directionless since then.
There was some hope that breakouts from Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle last year would spark a fresh new era in Colorado. Instead, those two youngsters have taken significant steps backwards this season and it’s fair to wonder if they’re actually cornerstone pieces of whatever core the Rockies are attempting to build. At least Tovar’s underlying metrics look like they’re in line with his successful 2024 season. It’s a little more difficult to parse what’s going on with Doyle, suffice to say that his swing-and-miss issues have caused his topline results to crater despite some high quality batted ball metrics. The big breakout this year has been from Hunter Goodman; he’s leading all NL catchers with 30 home runs. There have been some good developments from Tyler Freeman and Jordan Beck as well, but it seems like those two are probably solid role players at best. And that’s really the big problem with the Rockies’ roster: there are some decent role players but absolutely no one is approaching the level of a star or even a solid everyday regular.
Probable Pitchers
McCade Brown was an unheralded pitching prospect in Colorado’s farm system until he overhauled his mechanics this offseason. He had struggled to a 5.64 ERA and a 4.69 FIP across three minor league seasons and just two levels before breaking out this year. He jumped from High-A to Double-A and finally to the big leagues behind a phenomenal 2.47 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 20 minor league starts. The landing in Colorado hasn’t been soft; Brown has just half a season of success under his belt, he skipped a minor league level, and was thrust into the most difficult pitching environment in the majors. His fastball is labeled a sinker, though its movement profile suggests it’s more of a four-seamer — or perhaps a straight sinker that doesn’t sink. Whatever it is, it isn’t fooling major league batters. He’s also got a pair of breaking balls that at least look promising, though they’ll probably end up being merely average offerings.
Tanner Gordon was acquired by the Rockies in 2023 and made his major league debut with them a year later. He’s a command artist who fills the strike zone with his pitches. That’s not exactly the best strategy for him; his walk rate is fantastic, but batters are happy to swing away at his mediocre stuff and his contact management isn’t good enough to get away with the amount of strikes he throws. The result is an ERA that’s nearly a run and a half higher than his FIP.
What happens when a pitcher throws a 30 grade fastball nearly 50% of the time? He gets blown up. I don’t even know how to analyze Bradley Blalock because it’s clear he shouldn’t be pitching in the major leagues, but the state of the Rockies pitching staff means he’s getting a long run of time to see if anything sticks. So far, batters have absolutely crushed his abysmal fastball and he’s allowing a little over a run per inning because of it. It doesn’t have to be this way! Blalock has four average-ish secondary offerings that all perform better than his heater, yet he chooses to throw them at most 15% of the time. Here’s a development tip, Bradley: stop throwing your heater so much.
Bryan Woo would be scheduled to take his turn in the rotation on Thursday, but depending on how his pectoral is feeling and how the Mariners have faired in their various clinching scenarios, I would bet that Woo will be shut down for the rest of the regular season to get him ready for the postseason. That means Thursday’s game would end up being a spot start from Jhonathan Díaz or a bullpen day depending on how Seattle wants to handle its roster during the final weekend of the season.
The Big Picture:
Zach Mason already laid out the Mariners clinching scenarios and rooting interests in his article yesterday so I’ll just give the tl;dr version here:
- The Mariners can clinch a postseason spot as early as tomorrow if the Mariners win and the Yankees win.
- The Mariners can clinch the AL West as early as Wednesday if either (a) the Mariners win two and the Astros lose one or (b) the Mariners win one and the Astros lose two.
- The Mariners can clinch the number 2 seed, and thus a first-round bye as early as Thursday if the Mariners sweep the Rockies and the Tigers lose at least one.
If you’re scoreboard watching, here are your rooting interests this week:
- A’s over Astros
- Guardians over Tigers (but not necessarily a sweep)
- Red Sox over Blue Jays
- White Sox over Yankees
