(Note: Stats here through June 14, which only matters for comparing the Braves to other teams. In an ideal world, I’d either do this on the 16th, or during the day on the 14th, but we live in something very far from an ideal world.)
Past summaries:
- So far, so good through mid-April
- Even better in late April
- May-be they’re just really good
- Late May just good, rather than absurdly awesome
I have a colleague that uses the word “correction” a lot. It’s notable because I don’t think she really means “correction” when she says it, but she’s incredible precise with her language, so it stands out. This seems kind of opaque without context, but essentially,
any time something breaks a trend or is an unusual micro-pattern within a broader, different macro-pattern, there she goes with “correction.” 2008? Economic correction. Post-pandemic drop in crime? Correction. Maybe “correction” is right, or at least fine. In any case, when talking about the Braves in June, you can see why the word haunts me a bit.
The bottom line is that whether the Braves were good, bad, or mediocre, a 6-5 record over two weeks of play isn’t weird. 6-5 is like, the default record. If a team constantly went 6-5, i.e., splitting ten games and winning the 11th, that’s basically 15 “free” wins over a .500 record, which means an 88-win season. Incidentally, 88 wins is not too far off from what the Braves were projected to do preseason (90ish by FanGraphs’ Steamer/ZiPS blend, lower by stuff like ZiPS alone). So, 6-5 — don’t call it a correction. Or… do?
Because, well, before June, the Braves weren’t playing at an 88-win pace. They also weren’t getting particularly lucky in racking up the victories. They also went 5-1 through their first two series in June… only to run into a very unfortunate road trip that saw them lose likely their two most talented (or at least, highest-ceiling, highest-variance because of that high ceiling) players to injury, and go 1-4 in the process. Whoops.
Is it a correction to go from a 108-win pace to a 105-win pace? (No?) What about from a 110-win pace to a 105-win pace (also probably not). What about from a projected 95-win team estimated to play at an 87-win clip the rest of the way on May 31, to a projected 94-win team estimated to play at an 86-win clip the rest of the way, as of June 15? Well, now I’m just throwing out a bunch of rhetorical questions. The bottom line: the Braves had a bad week. They didn’t bank wins at their previous, breakneck pace. They also suffered some injuries that will make winning harder in the future. Both of those kind of sucked, but they still have MLB’s best record. I guess the message is that if you expect them to play as they have, chances are, your perspective could use a correction. If you expect them to play as a good-not-great team given their surfeit of injuries and the usual talent variations, chances are you won’t get whiplash… and if you do, it’ll be the pleasant kind.
How did the Braves do recently?
Well, that was a very long, 500-word intro. Right to the stats, then. Believe it or not, going 6-5 for a month is a top half performance in MLB. Their production, though, was kinda worse — given what they did, you’d expect them to have gone 5-6 or maybe even 4-7. So, it could’ve been worse. You’ll see what I mean, namely…
- After finishing in the top ten in position player value in both April and May, the Braves are literally dead last in MLB in position player value so far in June. They’re 29th in batting outputs, 28th in batting inputs, and 12th in defensive value.
- On the flip side, the pitching has actually been pretty good. Or, at least, fortunate. Seventh in fWAR (rotation 19th, bullpen eighth, kind of a weird combo but there it is)… but a rankwise breakdown of ninth in ERA-, fifth in FIP-, and 15th in xFIP-. HR/FB on the pitching side comes to the rescue when the bats slumber, I guess. Thanks, HR/FB!
Using game-by-game odds, the Braves should’ve gone somewhere around 5-6 or 6-5, so what they actually did isn’t that surprising. But again, that’s because game-by-game odds will generally slam every team in that .500ish range, since that’s kind of how baseball works. That said, in true double-you-tee-eff fashion, the Braves somehow both lost the game where they were most-favored in this two-week stretch (Chris Sale against the Jays at home), but won the game where they were least-favored (Martin Perez against the Mets in New York). Baseball, man. Weirdly, the Braves are 1-2 in the three games with their pre-game odds over 60 percent, but they’re also 2-3 in games with their pre-game odds below 42 percent.
How did the Braves do recently?
Look, you can’t be dead last at a big thing like position player production for two weeks and not have it mess with your rankings a bit. But, given that two months were in the books before this span, maybe only a bit. Every team has a stumble for a week, it’s a long season.
- The Braves are now seventh in position player value. They’re third in batting inputs, seventh in batting outputs, and seventh in defensive production.
- The Braves are now 12th in pitching value (19th rotation, third bullpen). They have baseball’s best ERA- (still), but are 12th in FIP- and 10th in xFIP-.
How are the hitters doing?
Heh. Well…
It was a good two weeks for Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubon… and throw Matt Olson in too if you count “getting super-lucky without doing much to earn it,” too. Aside from Michael Harris II, it was a bad-to-horrific two weeks for everyone else, which is how you get that last-in-MLB-for-two-weeks demerit. Also, note that of the guys who didn’t meet the 17 PA cutoff I’m using for these biweekly check-ins, everyone else was horrendous, too, except for Eli White. The Braves were basically getting half a lineup’s worth of anything over these last two weeks, and that’s not enough.
For the season as a whole, the performance is still pretty strong. Harris and Olson continue to play like surefire All-Stars, Dubon’s defensively-buoyed profile is working as his bat has been fine, and Albies, who legitimately hit well over these two weeks, is combining luck and a defensive resurgence to getting back to good rather than merely playable-ish. Still, the awful June so far has been a drag on a lot of guys. If this keeps up, the Braves will probably have to explore more than just the usual starter/reliever/right-handed bat at the Trade Deadline — they’ll probably stick with Austin Riley, but Yastrzemski might be playing himself out of a permanent strong side platoon fixture, and Dominic Smith can’t afford too many more two-week stretches like the one he just had before he tumbles into 2026 Riley territory value-wise.
Sandy Leon, man. He’s not there to hit but the hitting has been… really far away from basically anyone else, even when the team is struggling.
Another shoutout to Dubon, who not only led the position players in WPA in this two-week stretch, but literally tripled the next-closest WPA tally… which belongs to White, of all people.
How are the pitchers doing?
Not much surprising here. Martin Perez (from the top rope, somehow) switched places with Bryce Elder in the “huh, that was a really good two starts” this time around.
The Braves’ rotation is, in the end, in a really weird place. Chris Sale is Chris Sale, no need for further discussion but for continued gawking at how good he is. Bryce Elder and Martin Perez have both been surprising in their own way; even if Elder is regressing, maybe Perez will simply swap places with him in terms of an arm being more-than-useful for longer than a two-week stretch. Grant Holmes and Spencer Strider were both awful in two outings, but despite Holmes’ horrendous performance after nine batters and the Strider Saga we’ve all come to know and dread, those guys aren’t doing horrendously on the season… except for the homers. On the season as a whole, the Braves haven’t had horrendous HR/FB problems… but the rotation is creeping up there, given what happened to Elder, Holmes, and Strider over the last few weeks.
On the bullpen front, there’s not much of note, other than Didier Fuentes continuing to thrive. Both he and Robert Suarez had three shutdowns and no meltdowns while making five appearances each. Their efforts are a big reason as to how the Braves were even able to manage to go 6-5 in a stretch where only one starter (and not Chris Sale) amassed positive WPA while pitching.
Here’s a weirdo factoid: the Braves have four relievers that already have 0.8 fWAR or more. There are 18 of those guys in baseball right now, period. A majority of teams don’t even have one. The Braves do have this odd issue, where they probably need to use the bullpen more relative to their starters given the disarray in the rotation, but there’s such a steep dropoff between that fearsome quartet and everyone else that you can totally see them just tread water for a bit before they they either feel like they need to wheel hard toward a change in personnel and management, or someone emerges to fill the gap.
Anyway, see you at the end of the month, at which point I hopefully won’t be talking about any full-fledged swoon.
