Last month at this time, we had questions about the football team. So, so many questions. The number of unknowns left all of us guessing at possible outcomes, based far more on hope than data. September
exposed a lot of wishful thinking and provided a flood of unpleasant data points, on and off the field. We enter October wondering just where things go from here.
About the only thing we know for sure at this point: the roof ain’t the ceiling for UNC football 2025. As a staff, we hit the reset button over the bye week (and fervently hope the team did likewise). We started with the Clemson game and ended with UNC football’s future under the direction of Belichicks and Lombardis. We hit a few other important topics in between. Part 1 addresses the rest of the season. Part 2 will look at the bigger picture of UNC football under Bill Belichick. Where are your thoughts? We hope you’ll provide your own below in the comments section. Disagree? Be kind, but fire away.
Rest of Season: 4 Questions
1: What are your predictions for the Clemson game?
Brandon A: Clemson is going to find a way to have their best game of the season and beat UNC 36-3. That seems dramatic, but it feels like that is what we are headed towards unless something miraculously changed during the bye week.
Brandon G: UNC 21-Clemson 20. That’s right, it’s payback for 2019 when we came up a two point conversion short of shocking the number one team in the nation.
Akil G: If one of the freshman quarterbacks start against Clemson, UNC will win by multiple scores. They’re talented enough to punish a Clemson team that just does not care on the field. If it’s Lopez or Johnson, though, they create too many problems for themselves in the pocket, and I think Clemson covers the 12-point spread. Yes, I do think the right quarterback change is worth a 20-point swing.
Al H: Pain.
Matt B: Vegas gets it right. The Tar Heels lose by two touchdowns.
Max S: A new quarterback Clemson hasn’t prepped for comes out and provides a momentary spark for Carolina. Then, the game devolves into a contest between two teams that have proven adept at giving games away. The result will come down to who can get out of their own way; it may as well be the Heels, even if the talent differential favors the Tigers. We dream the big dreams here, though. Tar Heels win ugly, 16-9.
Thomas B: Clemson wins by double digits.
David S: Their Jimmys and Joes are way better than our Jimmys and Joes. Clemson’s results have been shocking because that roster has future pros sprinkled all over. My granddad had a term for teams where Clemson’s at: “dead cat bounce.” For at least a week, maybe two, they put it all together before reverting to whatever’s ailing them. I think Dabo gets a 3 score lead in the 2nd half. empties his bench, and then has a pizza party on the bus back to Clemson.
2: UNC’s best case scenario for the rest of the season?
Max S: From where we sit currently, it is still technically possible for the Heels to win the ACC. Setting those dreams aside, I think barely reaching bowl eligibility is what we ought to be realistically hoping for.
Akil G: Well, I’ve already put my neck out there predicting a Clemson win if Baker or Newkirk starts at quarterback. Games against NC State, Cal, Wake Forest, Stanford, and Syracuse would all be expected to be 1-score games by SP+, which means they’d be winnable. I do think State and Cal’s quarterbacks are too talented for this defense to overcome, so I guess my most optimistic vision as of right now gives UNC 6 wins: the two right now, plus Clemson, Wake Forest, Stanford, and ‘Cuse.
David S: Our ACC schedule so far shapes up as the easiest UNC has seen in decades. Our offense so far has been one of the worst UNC’s put on the field in decades. Feels like an inverted “immovable object vs irresistible force” dilemma to me. I think all but two of our remaining games (Clemson and Virginia) are coin flips assuming a well-coached football team. Best case: we become a well-coached football team, especially on offense, we get some lucky bounces, and we rock these next eight games to the tune of 7-1, shocking the world.
Al H: 6-6 is still on the table, maybe 7-5. They face some of the worst teams in the conference, so some wins are still there.
Brandon G: 8-4. Despite playing horrible against Two Big 12 teams, the Tar Heels’ ACC schedule still looks soft. If they get things cleaned up, the Heels could really get on a roll.
Thomas B: Record wise, I’d say 8-4 is probably the ceiling. The ACC schedule isn’t terribly daunting. This would probably represent a significant leap forward for the offense, hopefully led by improved QB play.
Matt B: The Tar Heels lose close ones to Clemson, Cal and Virginia before getting back-to-back wins over a Steve Angeli-less Syracuse and a not-very-good Stanford. The positive momentum helps them beat two of Wake Forest, Duke and NC State. They finish the regular season 6-6 and (as usual) get punked in the bowl game.
Brandon A: Things look pretty bleak as far as the best case scenario for this team. Cal and Stanford stick out to me as winnable games, but the other teams left on the schedule have shown that they can be a problem. Maybe NC State fails to get things together by the final weekend, but I truly think two more wins would be best case for this team.
3. UNC’s worst-case scenario for the rest of the season?
Matt B: The Tar Heels continue to get their doors blown off and are deep into a death spiral by the time they face Syracuse. They finish 2-10 and Bill Belichick decides he’d rather enjoy retirement with Jordon Hudson than try to fix the mess he’s made.
David S: Lombardi keeps yapping about “next year,” which screams to this year’s team that its leadership has already moved on. No player leadership emerges to hold this hasty assemblage of transfers together. Half the team quits on the coaches. We finish 2-10 with more ugly final scores. We then enter the “but just wait and see how awesome it’s going to be once Bill gets his players in his system” off-season from Hell.
Brandon A: We beat one of Cal or Stanford, but other than that it’s a wrap.
Brandon G: 2-10… everything we saw against TCU and UCF was just a prelude to what’s to come.
Thomas B: The Heels haven’t played well enough to convince me they should be significantly favored over almost any other Power 4 team. I assume they will put together a good enough game to beat one of the other underwhelming ACC teams such as Stanford or Wake Forest. Nevertheless, 3-9 is a possibility if the offense doesn’t show any signs of life.
Max S: More of the same: a listless offense and an overwhelmed defense surrendering in all phases of the game and watched over by an inflexible and/or uncaring coaching staff.
Al H: They are THE worst team in the league and maybe get one or two more wins.
Akil G: Oh, it is well within the realm of possibility that this team doesn’t win another game this season. In the games I mentioned, Carolina would probably only be favored against Stanford, and not by much. For a team that I’m still waiting to see even be competitive against any opponent with a pulse, the floor right now is Hades. The scary part is wondering what happens, or doesn’t happen, after that result, given how much power Belichick has in his relationship with UNC.
4. UNC’s final record?
David S: 5-7.
Max S: Through these blue-tinged glasses, I can almost see 8-5. If I take them off, though, imagine my surprise to find that it’s actually 6-7.
Brandon A: 3-9
Akil G: I think they beat Stanford. And I’m not quite enough of a pessimist to imagine that they lose every other near-toss-up on the schedule. Based on nothing much more than vibes, I’ll say UNC finishes the season with wins against Stanford and Wake Forest for a 4-8 record.
Matt B: 4-8 with wins over Stanford and one of the in-state rivals.
Thomas B: 5-7. My preseason prediction of 3+ QBs starting for the Heels is looking good (just don’t look at the rest of them).
Al H: 7-5
Brandon G: 6-6. Let’s split the difference; Heels beat Clemson, Stanford, Wake, and State to not only end the drought but become bowl eligible.
