Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
HOW WELL?
Let’s
be clear: this was not a good week for Jones. I’ve seen fans disagree or try to excuse it — citing the old “good enough to win” mantra. That’s typical dog-ate-my-homework nonsense. Sure, he looked good early and had a few great plays, but overall he simply couldn’t move the ball.
His 0.11 EPA per play isn’t bad, but his 36.4% success rate is terrible — it shows he had far more negative plays than positive ones, especially later in the game.
That poor success rate is why he posted one of the worst play-conversion rates of any QB — and why the Colts’ offense produced five three-and-outs and one of the worst Drive Success Rates by any team this year (55.6% DSR, 7th percentile).
HOW FAR?
His completion rate fell dramatically to 61.3%, and that included zero attempts over 20 air yards. He threw short, missed often, and when he did connect, it was for minimal yards and very few 1st downs.
If this chart looks like it slopes downward as the game went on, it’s because it does. That’s not good.
Both his passing depth and his completion depth were among the shortest of any QB. That’s not necessarily a bad thing — as long as you can complete a high percentage of those throws. He didn’t.
TO WHO?
No receiver broke 50 yards, and even the two who reached 40+ yards got almost all of it from YAC.
On the year, Warren is still the yards leader.
Targets were distributed widely, but the majority of them carried low value and didn’t meaningfully move the offense.
Season-long target value still looks solid, but recent weeks have pulled that efficiency down noticeably.
HOW ACCURATE?
Week 12 accuracy tanked, giving him his worst CPOE of the year.
HOW FAST?
Pressure forced him to throw a lot earlier than he wanted to. That was a key problem for him in New York.
TO WHERE?
He didn’t attempt a single deep pass, and even his shorter throws weren’t successful. Screen passes were the only bright spot this week.
I remember when this season chart was all green. Ah, memories.
DASHBOARD
mouseover definitions: epa/d, median EPA gain in similar game situation (down, distance, etc.)”>arsr, 3 yards to gain in game-neutral situations”>edp, opd, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, aay, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, 0″>qbsr epa/p, adj/p
Here’s what happened in week 12:
- The run game never got going, and the Colts leaned heavily into the pass (29th ARSR, 5th EDP).
- Jones faced roughly average pressure compared to the league, but with his super-quick throws he should’ve seen even less (22nd PR%, 28th TTT). In other words, the O-line wasn’t protecting him, and he had to get the ball out early
- This is likely why his passing depth fell to dump-off levels — and with short throws come short completions (31st ADOT, 30th AY/C).
- A few explosive YAC plays propped up his efficiency, but his poor completion rate wiped most of that out, leaving him with a brutal 5.8 yards per attempt (7th YAC, 26th AC%, 26th AYPA).
- The one bright spot was his decision-making under pressure. He consistently scrambled instead of taking sacks and he kept his abandoned rate low — as he has all season (12th SCR%, 31st SCK%, 30th AA%).
- That ability to avoid negative plays propped up his efficiency, and without any designed runs dragging on his numbers, he flirted with near league-average yardage (20th NY/D, 19th NY/P).
- Unfortunately, that yardage was skewed towards a few big plays and his general ability to convert first downs just wasn’t there (26th 1st%)
- An early defensive gift — a three-yard field — inflated his TD rate into the top 10. He did avoid turnovers and that gave him decent EPA efficiency (9th TD%, 27th TO%, 14th EPA/d)
- But the real story of the game was his 26th-ranked QB Success Rate, which illustrates his inconsistency and his inability to simply move the chains.
One could argue that with better protection he would have performed much better. One could also argue that pressure is inevitable — and quarterbacks need to perform despite it. Many of the problems Jones had in New York were due to poor protection, but he needed to overcome that — and except for a good 2022 season, he didn’t.
Sure, it would be great if the Colts’ O-line gave him perfect protection every snap, but that isn’t realistic — especially as they face tougher defenses. And while Jones has generally been very good under pressure this season, this game was not an example of that. We need the good under pressure version of Jones if the Colts have any hope of postseason success — or even getting to the postseason in the first place.
On the season, I have Jones ranked 7th in overall efficiency, but after adjusting for opponent strength, that improves to 3rd overall.
mouseover definitions: ay<, dp%, ay/c, yac, yd/c, ac%, aypa, drp%, aypa, ta%, ypa, sck%, ny/a, scr%, ny/d, car%, ny/p, 1st%, any/p, td%, any/p, to%, any/p, epa/p, opd, adj/p
