It has been an eventful couple weeks for Northwestern men’s basketball.
The Wildcats strung together their largest win streak since November against Maryland, Indiana and Oregon before mounting an upset attempt against Purdue that fell short in heartbreaking fashion. The twists and turns of this late-season push have showcased improvement in many areas, but there have also been the same patterns that have plagued the ‘Cats throughout this season. They’ve shown they can hang around with top teams in the nation,
but NU has struggled to throw the knockout punch.
The good news: NU’s regular season finale is against Minnesota, an unranked team that is in many ways a mirror of Northwestern this season, statistically and record-wise. This road matchup provides a golden opportunity for NU to avenge its earlier loss to the Golden Gophers and end its regular season on a high note. Here are three ways the Wildcats can make that happen.
Learn and grow from January’s agonizing defeat to Minnesota
Wildcat players, coaches, fans and analysts still have the disappointment from this game ingrained in their minds.
Northwestern was up seven with less than five minutes remaining and appeared poised to emerge victorious. A win could’ve been seen as a turning point in an otherwise woeful start to conference play. Instead, a defensive collapse ensued — the Gophers went on a 10-2 run in the final minutes and captured a lead they refused to relinquish, beating the Wildcats 84-78 at Welsh-Ryan Arena.
The result prompted a blunt response from Chris Collins postgame.
“We’re going to have to get a whole lot tougher, mentally and physically, to put 40 minutes together.” Collins said.
As evidenced by recent success and competitiveness against top teams, NU is clearly a better team now than it was last time it faced Minnesota. But it cannot repeat the same mistakes that hurt the Wildcats against the Gophers. This includes the rebound and free-throw shooting disparity (more on both of those later) along with lack of ball movement (Minnesota had 25 assists, NU had just 18).
Since defense was the primary issue, Northwestern needs to study film on Cade Johnson, who’s sixth in the Big Ten in points per game and dropped 24 points in the January outing. Another breakout performance in that game came from Gopher guard Issac Asuma, who normally averages just 11 points a game but dropped a season-high 18 points. The ‘Cats also can’t ignore Grayson Grove, who netted 12 points on 6-of-6 shooting off the bench and had several critical baskets during Minnesota’s successful comeback attempt.
The good news for Northwestern: Minnesota is second-to-last in the Big Ten in points scored, as it averages just 70.2 points per game. This game offers Northwestern’s defense a chance to show its growth since its previous loss to the Gophers.
Dominate the Gophers at the line
As mentioned earlier, Minnesota and Northwestern are reflections of each other in numerous ways. Each team is relatively mediocre in the Big Ten and sits near the middle of the pack in nearly every statistical category: shooting percentage, assists, steals, to name a few. But there’s one number that is particularly eye-catching: free throw percentage.
Minnesota’s 69.7% shooting from the line ranks last in the Big Ten. This dreadful mark has cost the team games, most recently in its 67-62 loss to Maryland, as the Gophers shot 8-of-14 from the line. Those six missed foul shots were the difference-maker.
Northwestern itself isn’t great from the line — it shoots 74.9%, good for 11th in the Big Ten, but five percentage points better than Minnesota. A big reason NU was able to keep up with Purdue’s second-half surge (at least temporarily) was its 92% mark at the line. It’s imperative that Northwestern gets opportunities at the foul line and converts them, as it should be an expectation that NU wins the free-throw battle against the Gophers.
The easiest way to accomplish that is by being aggressive in the paint and letting the Wildcat stars feast, primarily Nick Martinelli — who went a perfect 8-of-8 on free throws against Purdue. A big day from the bigs would also be helpful — keep an eye on Arrinten Page in particular. He had 19 points in the previous outing against Minnesota and is due for the explosive offensive effort he’s struggled to garner in recent weeks.
Rebound, rebound, rebound
Maybe if I say it three times, it’ll actually come true.
I was combing through stats, highlights, trends and analysis pieces from both Northwestern and Minnesota to try and find something unique to write about. I didn’t want to belabor the rebounding point again, but all roads my research took me on ultimately arrived at this same point. So I’ll need to reiterate it one last time, and I’ll be more blunt about it than usual.
Northwestern’s rebounding has been the team’s biggest struggle this season and has cost them more games than any other player or metric. Against Purdue, the ‘Cats were outrebounded 29-15. Regardless of Purdue’s ranked status, that’s an embarrassing performance.
As our own Jack Spector noted, “It’s tough to win games when you can’t stay even on the glass.” And it presents no improvement from NU’s atrocious rebounding margin against Minnesota two months ago — a 33-20 overall deficit and 25-15 mark on the defensive glass.
When the ‘Cats actually rebound, they win games. Take the victory over Indiana for example — NU outrebounded the Hoosiers 34-23. NU’s arguably biggest upset of the season, on the road, came in large part because of success on the boards. If the Wildcats want another road victory against a conference opponent, the rebounding cannot falter or fail them, especially in late-game situations.
