Despite taking a step forward in his sophomore season, Jackson Holliday comes into the 2026 season with plenty of questions still to answer.
The former No.1 pick has yet to take the step we saw from Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman in their second seasons. That being said, describing Holliday’s 2025 season as “bad” would be taking things a step too far.
Among primary 2B last year, Holliday finished seventh in hits (142), eighth in home runs (17), seventh in stolen bases (17), and sixth in walks
(56). However, his triple slash of .242/.314/.375 certainly left something to be desired. His advanced numbers were also a little lacking, where stats like xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Average Exit Velocity were all in the 30-something percentile range.
Judging Holliday is a weird mix of reminding yourself that he’s only 22, while also acknowledging the first 700+ ABs of his career haven’t matched the hype of a former No. 1 overall prospect. When the Orioles were making their decision at the top of the 2022 draft, Holliday was lumped in with fellow high schoolers Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson and Elijah Green. Four years later, Holliday is entering his third season in the majors, while the other three have zero ABs above Double-A.
And yet, Holliday feels like a player who is still more potential than production. He has all the tools to challenge Ketel Marte, Brice Turang and Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the title of best offensive 2B in baseball. At age 21, the former No.1 overall pick nearly put up a 20/20 season, joining Chisholm, Turang and Matt McClain as the only 2B with 15+ HR and 15+ SB. And yet, inconsistent contact quality and stretches of questionable swing decisions held him back from utilizing the tools he showed throughout the minors.
And yet, compared to the MLB’s best 2b, Holliday is ahead of schedule in his career. At 21, Marte was a part-time player with a .753 OPS for the Diamondbacks. Turang and Chisholm were still waiting to make their MLB debuts. The Orioles young infielder, on the other hand, is entering his second season as a full-time starter, looking to take the leap from average starter to real contributor.
However, the start of that leap will be delayed after Holliday broke a bone in his hand during live batting practice last month. Per Baltimore Sun reporter Jacob Calvin Murphy, Holliday hopes to be back at the beginning of April after a brief rehab assignment. His timeline should be similar to Gunnar Henderson from last season, when the star SS missed the first two series of the season with a rib injury
One area where Holliday stands to improve the most is against fastballs. Last season, he hit .220 against four seamers and .229 against all fastballs. His -8 Run Value against four seam fastballs was the worst among all qualified Orioles and put him 337th out of 355 qualified major leaguers.
Holliday’s struggles with velocity show in his batted ball profile, as his 50.6% ground ball rate was more than six points higher than the MLB, while his 20.2% line drive rate was nearly five points below league average. Being late on fastballs makes it harder to drive the ball, leading to weaker contact, more ground balls and lower expected averages.
If the 22-year-old can get back on time against heaters, it could lead to a big jump in his offensive output. Projections are split on what to expect from Holliday in his third season.
- ZiPS: .247 average, .328 OBP, .404 SLG, 19 HR, 16 SB, 69 RBIs
- Baseball Reference: .244 average, .316 OBP, .390 SLG, 16 HR, 13 SB, 54 RBI
FanGraphs’ ZiPS model is much more bullish on Holliday’s outlook for the 2026 season. It projects a 42-point jump in the infielder’s OPS, along with career highs in HR and RBI. Baseball Reference, on the other hand, projects only a 16-point increase in his OPS while taking a step back in the HR and SB departments.
The arrival of Blaze Alexander could provide the competition that gives Holliday the push he needs. Alexander figures to be the Opening Day 2b as Holliday rehabs his hand injury. Once back healthy, it may become a platooon at 2B. The second-generation MLB Holliday is a career .247 hitter against righties, but only hits .180 against southpaws.
Alexander hits .269 against lefties with a .800 OPS, potentially forcing Holliday to the bench against LHPs. Losing his ABs against lefties may push Holliday to lock in a try and earn back his full-time starting role.
At one point not long ago, people thought of Holliday alongside the likes of Henderson and Adley Rutschman—the trio seen as the foundation of the Orioles’ future success. With the additions of Peter Alonso and Taylor Ward, as well as the ascension of Samuel Basallo, Holliday has slipped down the pecking order to the ranks of role player. And yet, 2026 gives the young Holliday a chance to set his career on a trajectory in line with his considerable talents.
