UFC 331 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Sept. 19, 2026), inside Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. In the main event, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight champion Joshua Van runs it back against his suddenly heated rival and former titleholder Alexandre Pantoja.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in LA when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers
think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC 331 betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC 331 odds here).
Last week’s recap: We’re back in the win column as Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki went over 1.5 rounds in an epic fight (watch highlights).
Let’s keep rolling below:
Light Heavyweight wrecking ball Iwo Baraniewski takes a massive step up in competition this weekend when he collides with longtime UFC veteran Alonzo Menifield.
And I’ll admit, I had to look pretty hard to find odds I actually liked for this one.
The obvious plays — Under 1.5 rounds, Under 2.5 rounds and Baraniewski by knockout — were all a little too juiced for my liking. So, I dug a little deeper.
This week, I’m locking in Baraniewski to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-185).
Here’s why:
Baraniewski has been nothing but pure chaos since arriving in UFC.
The Polish powerhouse has rattled off four consecutive first-round knockouts inside the Octagon, and somehow, every single one has come in less than two minutes (like this). In fact, Baraniewski owns a 100 percent professional finishing rate, with every victory coming in the first round.
The dude simply doesn’t waste time.
However, Menifield is by far the best fighter Baraniewski has faced.
The longtime UFC veteran has been a sneaky-good underdog bet over the last couple of years and has won three of his last four fights. He’s experienced, ridiculously powerful and more than capable of turning any Light Heavyweight fight into complete chaos himself.
Menifield has plenty of knockouts on his resume, meaning Baraniewski can’t simply sprint across the cage recklessly without consequences.
Still, I think the younger fighter is going to be too much.
Baraniewski’s combination of youth, speed and ridiculous power should allow him to overwhelm the older Menifield. We’ve seen Menifield involved in plenty of wild exchanges throughout his UFC career, and that’s an incredibly dangerous game to play against someone who has been erasing opponents almost immediately.
Ideally, Baraniewski does what he’s been doing and detonates Menifield early.
But that’s why I like this prop.
Menifield is a significant step up in competition and has enough experience to potentially survive Baraniewski’s initial onslaught. If that happens, I don’t want to lose my bet simply because Baraniewski is forced to fight intelligently and win a decision.
Give me both outcomes.
What could go wrong?
Menifield has been a profitable underdog for a reason. He’s powerful, experienced and has faced significantly better competition than Baraniewski. We also haven’t learned much about how Baraniewski responds when somebody survives his first two minutes of insanity.
That’s the biggest unknown here.
Menifield could drag him into unfamiliar territory, test his cardio and potentially expose holes we simply haven’t seen yet.
But I’m betting Baraniewski’s physical advantages prevent that from becoming a problem.
Give me Iwo Baraniewski to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-185) as this week’s “Weekend Lock.”
Iwo Baraniewski via TKO/KO/DQ: -170
Iwo Baraniewski via submission: +900
Iwo Baraniewski via decision: +1100
Alonzo Menifield via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
Alonzo Menifield via submission: +800
Alonzo Menifield via decision: +1100
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 331: “Van vs. Pantoja 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
