At the start of the season the Nationals were scoring a ton of runs, but most people believed that they would slow down at some point. Now, a month and a half into the season, this Nationals offense has not really slowed down. They have scored the second most runs in all of baseball, and rank in the top 10 of most offensive categories.
While I still have a hard time believing that the Nats will be a top 5 scoring offense at the end of the season, we have a big enough sample to call this offense legit. We have seen this offense go through a lull and come out the other side of it. There are some games where the offense does not have it, but the great thing about this unit is that they are resilient.
Last night made me even more bullish on the offense because we saw the supporting cast flex their muscles. The biggest complaint you could make about this offense early in the season is that they were too top heavy. CJ Abrams and James Wood had performed like superstars, but the rest of the offense was average at best. We saw a couple other important hitters in this lineup carry the load last night.
Outside of Wood and Abrams, Daylen Lile and Luis Garcia Jr. are probably the team’s two most talented hitters. However, they both struggled in April, posting OPS marks of .642 and .674 respectively. Lile and Garcia have been red hot to start May though, and they put on a show last night, each homering twice.
In the past week or so Lile and Garcia have really started to raise their OPS numbers. After last night, Garcia is now hitting .270 with a .725 OPS and Lile is hitting .264 with a .754 OPS. That really lengthens the Nats lineup and makes it tough for pitchers to avoid Wood and Abrams. When Garcia is out, Curtis Mead also provides quality production at first base.
Now that those two are rolling, it is fair to say that this offense is not a flash in the pan. They have played 42 games now, and are still second in baseball in runs. At the very worst, we are looking at a top half offense in my opinion, as long as Abrams sticks around the whole season. It is crazy to see what new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte has been able to get out of this group.
For years, Nats fans complained about Darnell Coles and how he was holding back the offense. People who disagreed with that usually just pointed out that Coles did not have a lot to work with. To that I say, look at what Matt Borgschulte is doing with mostly the same guys. Yes, this young core is a year older now, but this is more than just a natural progression. You have to give a ton of credit to the coaching.
However, it is the players that are playing the game and they deserve the most credit. James Wood, CJ Abrams, Curtis Mead, Jose Tena, Daylen Lile and Luis Garcia Jr. have all been very productive at the plate. Even with offensive liabilities like Nasim Nunez, Jacob Young and whoever is behind the plate, the Nats still usually find a way to score runs. To be fair to Nunez though, he does help the offense a lot when he does get on base by creating chaos.
We can talk about the depth all we want, but this is a star driven offense. CJ Abrams and James Wood have both been absolutely outstanding this year. Abrams is showing a bit more patience at the plate, especially with two strikes. That has helped him post a .391 OBP and a .922 OPS. James Wood still strikes out a ton, but that has not stopped him from posting a .930 OPS.
James Wood is not your average lead off man, but he has been really good in that role. He sees a lot of pitches, and gets on base a lot. Wood has a .392 OBP for the season. However, his defining trait is still his ridiculous power. He hit one of his classic opposite field shots last night to open the scoring and set the tone.
One thing I am loving from Wood this season is that he is figuring out how to consistently elevate the baseball. In Wood’s rookie year, he had a 55.1% ground ball rate. Last year, he cut that by a little bit, but he still hit the ball on the ground 49.7% of the time. That is still well above the 44.2% league average. This year, he has cut his ground ball rate by over 10%. He is only hitting the ball on the ground 39.6% of the time.
That is allowing Wood to do damage more consistently. Wood has the highest average exit velocity of any qualified hitter. So naturally, he is going to do great things when he elevates the baseball. That is what is happening right now. The next step for him is to cut down the strikeouts, particularly the strikeouts looking. With how big he is, there will always be swing and miss in his game, but if he cuts it down just a little bit, the league would be in trouble.
Between the star power at the top of the lineup and the supporting cast heating up, this Nats lineup is dangerous. To answer the question posed at the top, I think this Nats offense is for real. They will have cold stretches, but I have seen enough to say the bats are a real strength for this team.
